Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition

Effect of air-sea-ice interaction on winter 1996 Southern Ocean subpolar storm distribution

Air-sea-ice interaction processes in the Southern Ocean are investigated utilizing space-observed surface winds, sea ice concentration, and sea surface temperature (SST) from September through December, 1996. The sea ice edge (SIE) shows three ice-extent maxima around the Antarctic during September and October when sea ice coverage is maximum. They are located in the central Indian Ocean, east of the Ross Sea, and in the eastern Weddell Gyre. During September and October, most of the strong and long lasting storms initiate northeast of the three sea ice maxima. Such spatial distributions of storms and sea ice reflect coupling processes of the air-sea-ice interaction. A relatively stable, wave number 3 atmospheric circulation pattern that is believed to be fixed by the land-ocean distribution prevails during the ice maximum season. The ice-extent maxima coincide with strong southerlies and divergent wind fields associated with this pattern, which suggests that the mean atmospheric circulation determines the ice distribution. The ice-extent maxima can enhance the regional meridional surface pressure gradient and therefore strengthen the westerly winds north of the ice edge. The decreasing ice extent east of the ice maxima creates a local zonal thermal gradient which enhances local southerlies. This positive feedback between the wave pattern in the mean atmospheric circulation and ice distribution partially causes the eastward propagation of the ice maxima and also provides a favorable condition for cyclogenesis northeast of the ice-extent maxima. The mechanism of the cyclogenesis is the baroclinic instability caused by the cold air blown from the ice pack to the warm open-ocean waters. Where the SST is warmest off the SIE and the southerlies are the strongest, the potential for cyclogenesis is most likely. This is consistent with the observations

Seasonal forcing of summer dissolved inorganic carbon and chlorophyll a on the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): C03024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005267.The Southern Ocean is a climatically sensitive region that plays an important role in the regional and global modulation of atmospheric CO2. Based on satellite-derived sea ice data, wind and cloudiness estimates from numerical models (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis), and in situ measurements of surface (0–20 m depth) chlorophyll a (ChlSurf) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DICSurf) concentration, we show sea ice concentration from June to November and spring wind patterns between 1979 and 2006 had a significant influence on midsummer (January) primary productivity and carbonate chemistry for the Western Shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP, 64°–68°S, 63.4°–73.3°W). In general, strong (>3.5 m s−1) and persistent (>2 months) northerly winds during the previous spring were associated with relatively high (monthly mean > 2 mg m−3) ChlSurf and low (monthly mean 200 m depth) “winter-like” DIC on the WAP.This research was supported by NSF OPP grants 0217282 to HWD at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and 0823101 to HWD at the MBL

Climate forcing for dynamics of dissolved inorganic nutrients at Palmer Station, Antarctica: An interdecadal (1993-2013) analysis

We analyzed 20 years (1993–2013) of observations of dissolved inorganic macronutrients (nitrate, N; phosphate, P; and silicate, Si) and chlorophyll a (Chl) at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64.8°S, 64.1°W) to elucidate how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect the interannual variability in the seasonal phytoplankton bloom and associated drawdown of nutrients. The leading modes of nutrients (N, P, and Si empirical orthogonal functions 1, EOF1) represent overall negative anomalies throughout growing seasons, showing a mixed signal of variability in the initial levels and drawdown thereafter (low-frequency dynamics). The second most common seasonal patterns of nitrate and phosphate (N and P EOF2) capture prolonged drawdown events during December–March, which are correlated to Chl EOF1. Si EOF2 captures a drawdown event during November–December, which is correlated to Chl EOF2. These different drawdown patterns are shaped by different sets of physical and climate forcing mechanisms. N and P drawdown events during December–March are influenced by the winter and spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, where nutrient utilization is enhanced in a stabilized upper water column as a consequence of SAM-driven winter sea ice and spring wind dynamics. Si drawdown during November–December is influenced by early sea ice retreat, where ice breakup may induce abrupt water column stratification and a subsequent diatom bloom or release of diatom cells from within the sea ice. Our findings underscore that seasonal nutrient dynamics in the coastal WAP are coupled to large-scale climate forcing and related physics, understanding of which may enable improved projections of biogeochemical responses to climate change

Changing distributions of sea ice melt and meteoric water west of the Antarctic Peninsula

The Western Antarctic Peninsula has recently undergone rapid climatic warming, with associated decreases in sea ice extent and duration, and increases in precipitation and glacial discharge to the ocean. These shifts in the freshwater budget can have significant consequences on the functioning of the regional ecosystem, feedbacks on regional climate, and sea-level rise. Here we use shelf-wide oxygen isotope data from cruises in four consecutive Januaries (2011–2014) to distinguish the freshwater input from sea ice melt separately from that due to meteoric sources (precipitation plus glacial discharge). Sea ice melt distributions varied from minima in 2011 of around 0 % up to maxima in 2014 of around 4–5%. Meteoric water contribution to the marine environment is typically elevated inshore, due to local glacial discharge and orographic effects on precipitation, but this enhanced contribution was largely absent in January 2013 due to anomalously low precipitation in the last quarter of 2012. Both sea ice melt and meteoric water changes are seen to be strongly influenced by changes in regional wind forcing associated with the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which also impact on net sea ice motion as inferred from the isotope data. A near-coastal time series of isotope data collected from Rothera Research Station reproduces well the temporal pattern of changes in sea ice melt, but less well the meteoric water changes, due to local glacial inputs and precipitation effects

Winter and spring controls on the summer food web of the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variability affects multiple trophic levels in food webs is essential for determining ecosystem responses to climate change. Here we use over two decades of data collected by the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program (PAL-LTER) to determine how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect phytoplankton, zooplankton and an apex predator along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). We show that positive anomalies in chlorophyll-a (chl-a) at Palmer Station, occurring every 4-6 years, are constrained by physical processes in the preceding winter/spring and a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Favorable conditions for phytoplankton included increased winter ice extent and duration, reduced spring/summer winds, and increased water column stability via enhanced salinity-driven density gradients. Years of positive chl-a anomalies are associated with the initiation of a robust krill cohort the following summer, which is evident in Adelie penguin diets, thus demonstrating tight trophic coupling. Projected climate change in this region may have a significant, negative impact on phytoplankton biomass, krill recruitment and upper trophic level predators in this coastal Antarctic ecosystem

The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine d18O record

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230891291_The_Orbital_Theory_of_Pleistocene_Climate_Support_frim_a_Revised_Chronology_of_the_Marine_d18O_Recor

The Prevalence and Drug Sensitivity of Tuberculosis among Patients Dying in Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A Postmortem Study

A postmortem study by Ted Cohen and colleagues reveals a huge toll of tuberculosis among patients dying in hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa