Adverse health effects associated with household air pollution: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and burden estimation study

Background: 3 billion people worldwide rely on polluting fuels and technologies for domestic cooking and heating. We estimate the global, regional, and national health burden associated with exposure to household air pollution. Methods: For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we systematically searched four databases for studies published from database inception to April 2, 2020, that evaluated the risk of adverse cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal outcomes from exposure to household air pollution, compared with no exposure. We used a random-effects model to calculate disease-specific relative risk (RR) meta-estimates. Household air pollution exposure was defined as use of polluting fuels (coal, wood, charcoal, agricultural wastes, animal dung, or kerosene) for household cooking or heating. Temporal trends in mortality and disease burden associated with household air pollution, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were estimated from 2000 to 2017 using exposure prevalence data from 183 of 193 UN member states. 95% CIs were estimated by propagating uncertainty from the RR meta-estimates, prevalence of household air pollution exposure, and disease-specific mortality and burden estimates using a simulation-based approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019125060. Findings: 476 studies (15·5 million participants) from 123 nations (99 [80%] of which were classified as low-income and middle-income) met the inclusion criteria. Household air pollution was positively associated with asthma (RR 1·23, 95% CI 1·11–1·36), acute respiratory infection in both adults (1·53, 1·22–1·93) and children (1·39, 1·29–1·49), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1·70, 1·47–1·97), lung cancer (1·69, 1·44–1·98), and tuberculosis (1·26, 1·08–1·48); cerebrovascular disease (1·09, 1·04–1·14) and ischaemic heart disease (1·10, 1·09–1·11); and low birthweight (1·36, 1·19–1·55) and stillbirth (1·22, 1·06–1·41); as well as with under-5 (1·25, 1·18–1·33), respiratory (1·19, 1·18–1·20), and cardiovascular (1·07, 1·04–1·11) mortality. Household air pollution was associated with 1·8 million (95% CI 1·1–2·7) deaths and 60·9 million (34·6–93·3) DALYs in 2017, with the burden overwhelmingly experienced in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; 60·8 million [34·6–92·9] DALYs) compared with high-income countries (0·09 million [0·01–0·40] DALYs). From 2000, mortality associated with household air pollution had reduced by 36% (95% CI 29–43) and disease burden by 30% (25–36), with the greatest reductions observed in higher-income nations. Interpretation: The burden of cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal diseases associated with household air pollution has declined worldwide but remains high in the world’s poorest regions. Urgent integrated health and energy strategies are needed to reduce the adverse health impact of household air pollution, especially in LMICs. Funding: British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trus

A Data-Driven Typology of Asthma Medication Adherence using Cluster Analysis

Asthma preventer medication non-adherence is strongly associated with poor asthma control. One-dimensional measures of adherence may ignore clinically important patterns of medication-taking behavior. We sought to construct a data-driven multi-dimensional typology of medication non-adherence in children with asthma. We analyzed data from an intervention study of electronic inhaler monitoring devices, comprising 211 patients yielding 35,161 person-days of data. Five adherence measures were extracted: the percentage of doses taken, the percentage of days on which zero doses were taken, the percentage of days on which both doses were taken, the number of treatment intermissions per 100 study days, and the duration of treatment intermissions per 100 study days. We applied principal component analysis on the measures and subsequently applied k-means to determine cluster membership. Decision trees identified the measure that could predict cluster assignment with the highest accuracy, increasing interpretability and increasing clinical utility. We demonstrate the use of adherence measures towards a three-group categorization of medication non-adherence, which succinctly describes the diversity of patient medication taking patterns in asthma. The percentage of prescribed doses taken during the study contributed to the prediction of cluster assignment most accurately (84% in out-of-sample data)

Validation of the myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index machine learning algorithm to guide the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in a heterogenous population: a prespecified exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic pathways for myocardial infarction rely on fixed troponin thresholds, which do not recognise that troponin varies by age, sex, and time within individuals. To overcome this limitation, we recently introduced a machine learning algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate whether this algorithm performs well in routine clinical practice and predicts subsequent events. METHODS: The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm was validated in a prespecified exploratory analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial done in Scotland, UK that included consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome undergoing serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurement. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were excluded. MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0-100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction during the index visit and estimates diagnostic performance metrics (including area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, and the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) at the computed score. Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1 or type 4b), and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year was determined using the previously defined low-probability threshold (1·6) and high-probability MI3 threshold (49·7). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01852123. FINDINGS: In total, 20 761 patients (64 years [SD 16], 9597 [46%] women) enrolled between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, were included from the High-STEACS trial cohort, of whom 3272 (15·8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0·949 (95% CI 0·946-0·952) identifying 12 983 (62·5%) patients as low-probability for myocardial infarction at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score <1·6; sensitivity 99·3% [95% CI 99·0-99·6], negative predictive value 99·8% [99·8-99·9]), and 2961 (14·3%) as high-probability at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score ≥49·7; specificity 95·0% [94·6-95·3], positive predictive value 70·4% [68·7-72·0]). At 1 year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability patients than low-probability patients (520 [17·6%] of 2961 vs 197 [1·5%] of 12 983], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In consecutive patients undergoing serial cardiac troponin measurement for suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimated the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicted subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. By providing individual probabilities the MI3 algorithm could improve the diagnosis and assessment of risk in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and NHSX

Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy and stability of coronary heart disease: a 60 000-patient meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) has important implications for clinical outcomes in coronary disease. However, the optimal DAPT duration remains uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched four major databases for randomised controlled trials comparing long-term (≥12 months) with short-term (≤6 months) or shorter (≤3 months) DAPT in patients with coronary syndromes. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were any bleeding and major bleeding (safety), cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, revascularisation and stroke (efficacy). Nineteen randomised controlled trials (n=60 111) satisfied inclusion criteria, 8 assessed ≤3 months DAPT. Compared with long-term (≥12 months), short-term DAPT (≤6 months) was associated with a trend towards reduced all-cause mortality (RR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.01) and significant bleeding reduction (RR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.83 and RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.77 for major and any bleeding, respectively). There were no significant differences in efficacy outcomes. These associations persisted in sensitivity analysis comparing shorter duration DAPT (≤3 months) to long-term DAPT (≥12 months) for all-cause mortality (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.05). In subgroup analysis, short-term DAPT was associated with lower risk of bleeding in patients with acute or chronic coronary syndromes (RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.81 and RR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.65, respectively), but higher risk of stent thrombosis in acute coronary syndrome (RR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.17 vs RR: 1.25, 95% CI 0.44 to 3.58). CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis suggests that short (≤6 months) and shorter (≤3 months) durations DAPT are associated with lower risk of bleeding, equivalent efficacy and a trend towards lower all-cause mortality irrespective of coronary artery disease stability

Influence of age on the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

The 99th centile of cardiac troponin, derived from a healthy reference population, is recommended as the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction, but troponin concentrations are strongly influenced by age. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin in older patients presenting with suspected myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a secondary analysis of a multicenter trial of consecutive patients with suspected myocardial infarction, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation for the diagnosis of type 1, type 2, or type 4b myocardial infarction across 3 age groups (<50, 50–74, and ≥75 years) using guideline-recommended sex-specific and age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds. RESULTS: In 46 435 consecutive patients aged 18 to 108 years (mean, 61±17 years), 5216 (11%) had a diagnosis of myocardial infarction. In patients <50 (n=12 379), 50 to 74 (n=22 380), and ≥75 (n=11 676) years, the sensitivity of the guideline-recommended threshold was similar at 79.2% (95% CI, 75.5–82.9), 80.6% (95% CI, 79.2–82.1), and 81.6% (95% CI, 79.8–83.2), respectively. The specificity decreased with advancing age from 98.3% (95% CI, 98.1–98.5) to 95.5% (95% CI, 95.2–95.8), and 82.6% (95% CI, 81.9–83.4). The use of age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds improved the specificity (91.3% [90.8%–91.9%] versus 82.6% [95% CI, 81.9%–83.4%]) and positive predictive value (59.3% [57.0%–61.5%] versus 51.5% [49.9%–53.3%]) for myocardial infarction in patients ≥75 years but failed to prevent the decrease in either parameter with increasing age and resulted in a marked reduction in sensitivity compared with the use of the guideline-recommended threshold (55.9% [53.6%–57.9%] versus 81.6% [79.8%–83.3%]. CONCLUSIONS: Age alters the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin, with reduced specificity and positive predictive value in older patients when applying the guideline-recommended or age-adjusted 99th centiles. Individualized diagnostic approaches rather than the adjustment of binary thresholds are needed in an aging population

Sex-differences in oral anticoagulation therapy in patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation:a nationwide cohort study

Background Important disparities in the treatment and outcomes of women and men with atrial fibrillation (AF) are well recognized. Whether introduction of direct oral anticoagulants has reduced disparities in treatment is uncertain. Methods and Results All patients who had an incident hospitalization from 2010 to 2019 with nonvalvular AF in Scotland were included in the present cohort study. Community drug dispensing data were used to determine prescribed oral anticoagulation therapy and comorbidity status. Logistic regression modeling was used to evaluate patient factors associated with treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants. A total of 172 989 patients (48% women [82 833 of 172 989]) had an incident hospitalization with nonvalvular AF in Scotland between 2010 and 2019. By 2019, factor Xa inhibitors accounted for 83.6% of all oral anticoagulants prescribed, while treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct thrombin inhibitors declined to 15.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Women were less likely to be prescribed any oral anticoagulation therapy compared with men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.67–0.70]). This disparity was mainly attributed to vitamin K antagonists (aOR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.66–0.70]), while there was less disparity in the use of factor Xa inhibitors between women and men (aOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90–0.95]). Conclusions Women with nonvalvular AF were significantly less likely to be prescribed vitamin K antagonists compared with men. Most patients admitted to the hospital in Scotland with incident nonvalvular AF are now treated with factor Xa inhibitors and this is associated with fewer treatment disparities between women and men

Implementation of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin and risk of myocardial infarction or death at 5 years: stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial

AbstractObjective: To evaluate the impact of implementing a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay on long-term outcomes in patients with suspected acute coronary syndromeDesign: Secondary observational analysis of a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial.Setting: Ten secondary and tertiary care centresParticipants: Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (n=48,282; 47% women) were included in this trial. Myocardial injury was defined as any high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration &gt;99th centile of 16 ng/L in women and 34 ng/L in men.Intervention: Hospital sites were randomly allocated to early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex-specific diagnostic thresholds.Main Outcome Measures: Subsequent myocardial infarction or death at 5 years.Results: Overall, 10,360 patients had cardiac troponin concentrations greater than the 99th centile of whom 1,771 (17%) were reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay. The 5-year incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction or death before and after implementation of the high-sensitivity assay was 29% (5,588/18,978) versus 26% (7,591/29,304), respectively, in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.97 [95% CI 0.93 to 1.01]), and 63% (456/720) versus 54% (567/1,051) in those reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay (aHR 0.82 [0.72-0.94]). Following implementation, a reduction in subsequent myocardial infarction or death was observed in patients with non-ischemic myocardial injury (aHR 0·83 [0·75-0·91]), but not in those with type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction (aHR 0·92 [0·83-1·01] and 0·98 [0·84-1·14]).Conclusions: In patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, implementation of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay reduced the risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at 5 years in those reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay. Improvements in outcome were greatest in patients with non-ischemic myocardial injury suggesting a broader benefit beyond the identification of myocardial infarction.<br/

Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin i assay and risk of myocardial infarction or death at five years:Observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial

Abstract:Objective: To evaluate the impact of implementing a high sensitivity assay for cardiac troponin I on long term outcomes in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Design: Secondary observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting: 10 secondary and tertiary care centres in Scotland, UK. Participants: 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Myocardial injury was defined as any high sensitivity assay result for cardiac troponin I &gt;99th centile of 16 ng/L in women and 34 ng/L in men. Intervention: Hospital sites were randomly allocated to either early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds. Main outcome measure: The main outcome was myocardial infarction or death at five years. Results: 10 360 patients had cardiac troponin concentrations greater than the 99th centile, of whom 1771 (17.1%) were reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. The five year incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction or death before and after implementation of the high sensitivity assay was 29.4% (5588/18 978) v 25.9% (7591/29 304), respectively, in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01), and 63.0% (456/720) v 53.9% (567/1051), respectively, in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay (0.82, 0.72 to 0.94). After implementation of the high sensitivity assay, a reduction in subsequent myocardial infarction or death was observed in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury (0.83, 0.75 to 0.91) but not in those with type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction (0.92, 0.83 to 1.01 and 0.98, 0.84 to 1.14). Conclusions: Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay in the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at five years in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. Improvements in outcome were greatest in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury, suggesting a broader benefit beyond the identification of myocardial infarction. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01852123.</p

Improving Risk Stratification for Patients with Type 2 Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND: Despite poor cardiovascular outcomes, there are no dedicated, validated risk stratification tools to guide investigation or treatment in type 2 myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to derive and validate a risk stratification tool for the prediction of death or future myocardial infarction in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS: The T2-risk score was developed in a prospective multicenter cohort of consecutive patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or death at 1 year using variables selected a priori based on clinical importance. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was investigated graphically. The tool was validated in a single-center cohort of consecutive patients and in a multicenter cohort study from sites across Europe. RESULTS: There were 1,121, 250, and 253 patients in the derivation, single-center, and multicenter validation cohorts, with the primary outcome occurring in 27% (297 of 1,121), 26% (66 of 250), and 14% (35 of 253) of patients, respectively. The T2-risk score incorporating age, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial ischemia on electrocardiogram, heart rate, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and maximal cardiac troponin concentration had good discrimination (AUC: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79) for the primary outcome and was well calibrated. Discrimination was similar in the consecutive patient (AUC: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and multicenter (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64-0.83) cohorts. T2-risk provided improved discrimination over the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 risk score in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The T2-risk score performed well in different health care settings and could help clinicians to prognosticate, as well as target investigation and preventative therapies more effectively. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123