Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Thailand: A comprehensive population‐based registry analysis, 1990–2011

BackgroundSoutheast Asia is undergoing a transition from infectious to chronic diseases, including a dramatic increase in adult cancers. Childhood cancer research in Thailand has focused predominantly on leukemias and lymphomas or only examined children for a short period of time. This comprehensive multisite study examined childhood cancer incidence and survival rates in Thailand across all International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC) groups over a 20‐year period.MethodsCancer cases diagnosed in children ages 0‐19 years (n = 3574) from 1990 to 2011 were extracted from five provincial population‐based Thai registries, covering approximately 10% of the population. Descriptive statistics of the quality of the registries were evaluated. Age‐standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the Segi world standard population, and relative survival was computed using the Kaplan‐Meier method. Changes in incidence and survival were analyzed using Joinpoint Regression and reported as annual percent changes (APC).ResultsThe ASR of all childhood cancers during the study period was 98.5 per million person‐years with 91.0 per million person‐years in 1990–2000 and 106.2 per million person‐years in 2001–2011. Incidence of all childhood cancers increased significantly (APC = 1.2%, P < 0.01). The top three cancer groups were leukemias, brain tumors, and lymphomas. The 5‐year survival for all childhood cancers significantly improved from 39.4% in 1990–2000 to 47.2% in 2001–2011 (P < 0.01).ConclusionsBoth childhood cancer incidence and survival rates have increased, suggesting improvement in the health care system as more cases are identified and treated. Analyzing childhood cancer trends in low‐ and middle‐income countries can improve understanding of cancer etiology and pediatric health care disparities.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146559/1/pbc27428_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146559/2/pbc27428.pd

Individualized Prediction of Breast Cancer Survival Using Flexible Parametric Survival Modeling: Analysis of a Hospital-Based National Clinical Cancer Registry

Prognostic models for breast cancer developed from Western countries performed less accurately in the Asian population. We aimed to develop a survival prediction model for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for Thai patients with breast cancer. We conducted a prognostic model research using a multicenter hospital-based cancer clinical registry from the Network of National Cancer Institutes of Thailand. All women diagnosed with breast cancer who underwent surgery between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011 were included in the analysis. A flexible parametric survival model was used for developing the prognostic model for OS and DFS prediction. During the study period, 2021 patients were included. Of these, 1386 patients with 590 events were available for a complete-case analysis. The newly derived individualized prediction of breast cancer survival or the IPBS model consists of twelve routinely available predictors. The C-statistics from the OS and the DFS model were 0.72 and 0.70, respectively. The model showed good calibration for the prediction of five-year OS and DFS. The IPBS model provides good performance for the prediction of OS and PFS for breast cancer patients. A further external validation study is required before clinical implementation

Comparison of Cholangiocarcinoma and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Trends from 1993 to 2012 in Lampang, Thailand

Liver cancer is the most common cancer in Northern Thailand, mainly due to the dietary preference for raw fish, which can lead to infection by the parasite, O. viverrini, a causal agent of cholangiocarcinoma. We conducted a temporal trend analysis of cross-sectional incidence rates of liver cancer in Lampang, Northern Thailand. Liver cancer data from 1993&ndash;2012 were extracted from Lampang Cancer Registry. The multiple imputation by chained equations method was used to impute missing histology data. Imputed data were analyzed using Joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) models to characterize the incidence rates by gender, region, and histology, considering hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). We observed a significant annual increase in CCA incidence and a considerable decrease in HCC incidence for both genders in Lampang. The APC analysis suggested that CCA incidence rates were higher in older ages, younger cohorts, and later years of diagnosis. In contrast, HCC incidence rates were higher in older generations and earlier years of diagnosis. Further studies of potential risk factors of CCA are needed to better understand and address the increasing burden of CCA in Lampang. Our findings may help to draw public attention to cholangiocarcinoma prevention and control in Northern Thailand

Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Thailand: A comprehensive population-based registry analysis, 1990–2011

Background: Southeast Asia is undergoing a transition from infectious to chronic diseases, including a dramatic increase in adult cancers. Childhood cancer research in Thailand has focused predominantly on leukemias and lymphomas or only examined children for a short period of time. This comprehensive multisite study examined childhood cancer incidence and survival rates in Thailand across all International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC) groups over a 20-year period. Methods: Cancer cases diagnosed in children ages 0-19 years (n = 3574) from 1990 to 2011 were extracted from five provincial population-based Thai registries, covering approximately 10% of the population. Descriptive statistics of the quality of the registries were evaluated. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the Segi world standard population, and relative survival was computed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Changes in incidence and survival were analyzed using Joinpoint Regression and reported as annual percent changes (APC). Results: The ASR of all childhood cancers during the study period was 98.5 per million person-years with 91.0 per million person-years in 1990–2000 and 106.2 per million person-years in 2001–2011. Incidence of all childhood cancers increased significantly (APC = 1.2%, P \u3c 0.01). The top three cancer groups were leukemias, brain tumors, and lymphomas. The 5-year survival for all childhood cancers significantly improved from 39.4% in 1990–2000 to 47.2% in 2001–2011 (P \u3c 0.01). Conclusions: Both childhood cancer incidence and survival rates have increased, suggesting improvement in the health care system as more cases are identified and treated. Analyzing childhood cancer trends in low- and middle-income countries can improve understanding of cancer etiology and pediatric health care disparities

External Validation of the Individualized Prediction of Breast Cancer Survival (IPBS) Model for Estimating Survival after Surgery for Patients with Breast Cancer in Northern Thailand

The individualized prediction of breast cancer survival (IPBS) model was recently developed. Although the model showed acceptable performance during derivation, its external performance remained unknown. This study aimed to validate the IPBS model using the data of breast cancer patients in Northern Thailand. An external validation study was conducted based on female patients with breast cancer who underwent surgery at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai hospital from 2005 to 2015. Data on IPBS predictors were collected. The endpoints were 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The model performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Missing data were handled with multiple imputation. Of all 3581 eligible patients, 1868 were included. The 5-year OS and DFS were 85.2% and 81.9%. The IPBS model showed acceptable discrimination: C-statistics 0.706 to 0.728 for OS and 0.675 to 0.689 for DFS at 5 years. However, the IPBS model minimally overestimated both OS and DFS predictions. These overestimations were corrected after model recalibration. In this external validation study, the IPBS model exhibited good discriminative ability. Although it may provide minimal overestimation, recalibrating the model to the local context is a practical solution to improve the model calibration

National and Subnational Population-Based Incidence of Cancer in Thailand: Assessing Cancers with the Highest Burdens

In Thailand, five cancer types—breast, cervical, colorectal, liver and lung cancer—contribute to over half of the cancer burden. The magnitude of these cancers must be quantified over time to assess previous health policies and highlight future trajectories for targeted prevention efforts. We provide a comprehensive assessment of these five cancers nationally and subnationally, with trend analysis, projections, and number of cases expected for the year 2025 using cancer registry data. We found that breast (average annual percent change (AAPC): 3.1%) and colorectal cancer (female AAPC: 3.3%, male AAPC: 4.1%) are increasing while cervical cancer (AAPC: −4.4%) is decreasing nationwide. However, liver and lung cancers exhibit disproportionately higher burdens in the northeast and north regions, respectively. Lung cancer increased significantly in northeastern and southern women, despite low smoking rates. Liver cancers are expected to increase in the northern males and females. Liver cancer increased in the south, despite the absence of the liver fluke, a known factor, in this region. Our findings are presented in the context of health policy, population dynamics and serve to provide evidence for future prevention strategies. Our subnational estimates provide a basis for understanding variations in region-specific risk factor profiles that contribute to incidence trends over time