Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

Comparison of the effects of Viscoat and Healon on postoperative intraocular pressure

We compared the effects of Viscoat and Healon on postoperative increases in intraocular pressure in patients undergoing uncomplicated extracapsular cataract extraction with posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation in a prospective, randomized, single-masked study. Eleven eyes received Viscoat and 13 received Healon. The Viscoat or Healon was aspirated from the anterior chamber with the irrigation-aspiration tip of an automated irrigation-aspiration system at the end of the procedure. No prophylactic intraoperative or postoperative ocular hypotensive agents were used. Intraocular pressure was measured at three, six, 12, and 24 hours postoperatively. Compared with preoperative intraocular pressure, postoperative intraocular pressure was significantly increased in both the Viscoat group and the Healon group. Some postoperative intraocular pressures were as high as 50 to 60 mm Hg, despite removal of the viscoelastic substance at the end of surgery. There was no significant difference in the postoperative intraocular pressures of the Viscoat group and the Healon group. © 1985

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Modelling the co-evolution of indirect genetic effects and inherited variability

Abstract: When individuals interact, their phenotypes may be affected not only by their own genes but also by genes in their social partners. This phenomenon is known as Indirect Genetic Effects (IGEs). In aquaculture species and some plants, however, competition not only affects trait levels of individuals, but also inflates variability of trait values among individuals. In the field of quantitative genetics, the variability of trait values has been studied as a quantitative trait in itself, and is often referred to as inherited variability. Such studies, however, consider only the genetic effect of the focal individual on trait variability and do not make a connection to competition. Although the observed phenotypic relationship between competition and variability suggests an underlying genetic relationship, the current quantitative genetic models of IGE and inherited variability do not allow for such a relationship. The lack of quantitative genetic models that connect IGEs to inherited variability limits our understanding of the potential of variability to respond to selection, both in nature and agriculture. Models of trait levels, for example, show that IGEs may considerably change heritable variation in trait values. Currently, we lack the tools to investigate whether this result extends to variability of trait values. Here we present a model that integrates IGEs and inherited variability. In this model, the target phenotype, say growth rate, is a function of the genetic and environmental effects of the focal individual and of the difference in trait value between the social partner and the focal individual, multiplied by a regression coefficient. The regression coefficient is a genetic trait, which is a measure of cooperation; a negative value indicates competition, a positive value cooperation, and an increasing value due to selection indicates the evolution of cooperation. In contrast to the existing quantitative genetic models, our model allows for co-evolution of IGEs and variability, as the regression coefficient can respond to selection. Our simulations show that the model results in increased variability of body weight with increasing competition. When competition decreases, i.e., cooperation evolves, variability becomes significantly smaller. Hence, our model facilitates quantitative genetic studies on the relationship between IGEs and inherited variability. Moreover, our findings suggest that we may have been overlooking an entire level of genetic variation in variability, the one due to IGEs

Aspirin Effects on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus: Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Report 14

Objectives.—This report presents information on the effects of aspirin on mortality, the occurrence of cardiovascular events, and the incidence of kidney disease in the patients enrolled in the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS).Study Design.—This multicenter, randomized clinical trial of aspirin vs placebo was sponsored by the National Eye Institute.Patients.—Patients (N=3711) were enrolled in 22 clinical centers between April 1980 and July 1985. Men and women between the ages of 18 and 70 years with a clinical diagnosis of diabetes mellitus were eligible. Approximately 30% of all patients were considered to have type I diabetes mellitus, 31% type II, and in 39% type I or II could not be determined definitely.Intervention.—Patients were randomly assigned to aspirin or placebo (two 325-mg tablets once per day).Main Outcome Measures.—Mortality from all causes was specified as the primary outcome measure for assessing the systemic effects of aspirin. Other outcome variables included cause-specific mortality and cardiovascular events.Results.—The estimate of relative risk for total mortality for aspirin-treated patients compared with placebo-treated patients for the entire study period was 0.91 (99% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.11). Larger differences were noted for the occurrence of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction; the estimate of relative risk was 0.83 for the entire follow-up period (99% confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.04).Conclusions.—The effects of aspirin on any of the cardiovascular events considered in the ETDRS were not substantially different from the effects observed in other studies that included mainly nondiabetic persons. Furthermore, there was no evidence of harmful effects of aspirin. Aspirin has been recommended previously for persons at risk for cardiovascular disease. The ETDRS results support application of this recommendation to those persons with diabetes at increased risk of cardiovascular disease.(JAMA. 1992;268:1292-1300