Global scale modeling of melting and isotopic evolution of Earth’s mantle:melting modules for TERRA

Many outstanding problems in solid-Earth science relate to the geodynamical explanation of geochemical observations. Currently, extensive geochemical databases of surface observations exist, but satisfying explanations of underlying mantle processes are lacking. One way to address these problems is through numerical modelling of mantle convection while tracking chemical information throughout the convective mantle. We have implemented a new way to track both bulk compositions and concentrations of trace elements in a finiteelement mantle convection code. Our approach is to track bulk compositions and trace element abundances via particles. One value on each particle represents bulk composition and can be interpreted as the basalt component. In our model, chemical fractionation of bulk composition and trace elements happens at self-consistent, evolving melting zones. Melting is defined via a composition-dependent solidus, such that the amount of melt generated depends on pressure, temperature and bulk composition of each particle. A novel aspect is that we do not move particles that undergo melting; instead we transfer the chemical information carried by the particle to other particles. Molten material is instantaneously transported to the surface layer, thereby increasing the basalt component carried by the particles close to the surface and decreasing the basalt component in the residue. The model is set to explore a number of radiogenic isotopic systems, but as an example here the trace elements we choose to follow are the Pb isotopes and their radioactive parents. For these calculations we will show (1) the evolution of the distribution of bulk compositions over time, showing the buildup of oceanic crust (via melting-induced chemical separation in bulk composition), i.e. a basalt-rich layer at the surface, and the transportation of these chemical heterogeneities through the deep mantle; (2) the amount of melt generated over time; (3) the evolution of the concentrations and abundances of different isotopes of the trace elements (U, Th, K and Pb) throughout the mantle; and (4) a comparison to a semi-analytical theory relating observed arrays of correlated Pb isotope compositions to melting age distributions (Rudge, 2006)

Measurements of branching fraction ratios and CP-asymmetries in suppressed B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decays

We report the first reconstruction in hadron collisions of the suppressed decays B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^-, sensitive to the CKM phase gamma, using data from 7 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. We reconstruct a signal for the B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- suppressed mode with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, and measure the ratios of the suppressed to favored branching fractions R(K) = [22.0 \pm 8.6(stat)\pm 2.6(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^+(K) = [42.6\pm 13.7(stat)\pm 2.8(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^-(K)= [3.8\pm 10.3(stat)\pm 2.7(syst]\times 10^-3, as well as the direct CP-violating asymmetry A(K) = -0.82\pm 0.44(stat)\pm 0.09(syst) of this mode. Corresponding quantities for B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decay are also reported.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Phys.Rev.D Rapid Communications for Publicatio

Whole exome re-sequencing implicates CCDC38 and cilia structure and function in resistance to smoking related airflow obstruction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality and, whilst smoking remains the single most important risk factor, COPD risk is heritable. Of 26 independent genomic regions showing association with lung function in genome-wide association studies, eleven have been reported to show association with airflow obstruction. Although the main risk factor for COPD is smoking, some individuals are observed to have a high forced expired volume in 1 second (FEV1) despite many years of heavy smoking. We # hypothesised that these ‘‘resistant smokers’’ may harbour variants which protect against lung function decline caused by smoking and provide insight into the genetic determinants of lung health. We undertook whole exome re sequencing of 100 heavy smokers who had healthy lung function given their age, sex, height and smoking history and applied three complementary approaches to explore the genetic architecture of smoking resistance. Firstly, we identified novel functional variants in the ‘‘resistant smokers’’ and looked for enrichment of these novel variants within biological pathways. Secondly, we undertook association testing of all exonic variants individually with two independent control sets. Thirdly, we undertook gene-based association testing of all exonic variants. Our strongest signal of association with smoking resistance for a non-synonymous SNP was for rs10859974 (P = 2.3461024) in CCDC38, a gene which has previously been reported to show association with FEV1/FVC, and we demonstrate moderate expression of CCDC38 in bronchial epithelial cells. We identified an enrichment of novel putatively functional variants in genes related to cilia structure and function in resistant smokers. Ciliary function abnormalities are known to be associated with both smoking and reduced mucociliary clearance in patients with COPD. We suggest that genetic influences on the development or function of cilia in the bronchial epithelium may affect growth of cilia or the extent of damage caused by tobacco smoke

Bayes factors for mixed models: A discussion

van Doorn et al. (2021) outlined various questions that arise when conducting Bayesian model comparison for mixed effects models. Seven response articles offered their own perspective on the preferred setup for mixed model comparison, on the most appropriate specification of prior distributions, and on the desirability of default recommendations. This article presents a round-table discussion that aims to clarify outstanding issues, explore common ground, and outline practical considerations for any researcher wishing to conduct a Bayesian mixed effects model comparison

Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer fiveoriginal research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams renderedstatistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.</div

Search for B_s --> mu+mu- and B_d --> mu+mu- Decays with CDF II

A search has been performed for B_s --> mu+mu- and B_d --> mu+mu- decays using 7/fb of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The observed number of B_d candidates is consistent with background-only expectations and yields an upper limit on the branching fraction of BF(B_d-->mu+mu-) < 6.0E-9 at 95% confidence level. We observe an excess of B_s candidates. The probability that the background processes alone could produce such an excess or larger is 0.27%. The probability that the combination of background and the expected standard model rate of B_s --> mu+mu- could produce such an excess or larger is 1.9%. These data are used to determine BF(B_s-->mu+mu-) = (1.8^{+1.1}_{-0.9})E-8 and provide an upper limit of BF(B_s -->mu+mu-) < 4.0E-8 at 95% confidence level.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure; version accepted by PR

Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis

Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis