Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

This paper proposes a novel adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm

Ubiquitous robust communications for emergency response using multi-operator heterogeneous networks

A number of disasters in various places of the planet have caused an extensive loss of lives, severe damages to properties and the environment, as well as a tremendous shock to the survivors. For relief and mitigation operations, emergency responders are immediately dispatched to the disaster areas. Ubiquitous and robust communications during the emergency response operations are of paramount importance. Nevertheless, various reports have highlighted that after many devastating events, the current technologies used, failed to support the mission critical communications, resulting in further loss of lives. Inefficiencies of the current communications used for emergency response include lack of technology inter-operability between different jurisdictions, and high vulnerability due to their centralized infrastructure. In this article, we propose a flexible network architecture that provides a common networking platform for heterogeneous multi-operator networks, for interoperation in case of emergencies. A wireless mesh network is the main part of the proposed architecture and this provides a back-up network in case of emergencies. We first describe the shortcomings and limitations of the current technologies, and then we address issues related to the applications and functionalities a future emergency response network should support. Furthermore, we describe the necessary requirements for a flexible, secure, robust, and QoS-aware emergency response multi-operator architecture, and then we suggest several schemes that can be adopted by our proposed architecture to meet those requirements. In addition, we suggest several methods for the re-tasking of communication means owned by independent individuals to provide support during emergencies. In order to investigate the feasibility of multimedia transmission over a wireless mesh network, we measured the performance of a video streaming application in a real wireless metropolitan multi-radio mesh network, showing that the mesh network can meet the requirements for high quality video transmissions

Severe course of Lyme neuroborreliosis in an HIV-1 positive patient; case report and review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lyme Neuroborreliosis (LNB) in a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive patient is a rare co-infection and has only been reported four times in literature. No case of an HIV patient with a meningoencephalitis due to LNB in combination with HIV has been described to date.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 51 year old woman previously diagnosed with HIV presented with an atypical and severe LNB. Diagnosis was made evident by several microbiological techniques. Biochemical and microbiological recovery during treatment was rapid, however after treatment the patient suffered from severe and persistent sequelae.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A clinician should consider LNB when being confronted with an HIV patient with focal encephalitis, without any history of Lyme disease or tick bites, in an endemic area. Rapid diagnosis and treatment is necessary in order to minimize severe sequelae.</p

A nationwide study of metabolic syndrome prevalence in Iran; A comparative analysis of six definitions

Introduction To integrate and execute a proper preventive plan and reduce the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), policy makers need to have access to both reliable data and a unique definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS). This study was conducted on the data collected by cross-sectional studies of WHO's STEPwise approach to surveillance of NCD risk factors (STEPs) to estimate the national and sub-national prevalence rates of MetS in Iran in 2016. Materials and methods The prevalence of MetS was estimated among 18,414 individuals aged ≥25 years living in urban and rural areas of Iran using various definition criteria; National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III 2004 (ATP III), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), Joint Interim Statement (JIS). Regional IDF (RIDF) and JIS (RJIS) were defined using ethnicityspecific values of waist circumference for the country. Results National prevalence rate of MetS based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS criteria were 38.3% (95% CI 37.4-39.1), 43.5% (42.7-44.4), 40.9% (40.1-41.8), 47.6% (46.8-48.5), 32.0% (31.2-32.9), and 40.8% (40.0-41.7), respectively. The prevalence was higher among females, in urban residents, and those aged 65-69 years. MetS was expected to affect about 18.7, 21.3, 20.0, 23.3, 15.7, and 20.0 million Iranians, respectively, based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS. The two most common components noted in this population were reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and central obesity. Conclusion High prevalence rate of MetS among Iranian adults is alarming, especially among females, urban residents, and the elderly. The JIS definition criteria is more appropriate to determine higher number of Iranians at risk of NCDs. Proper management and prevention of MetS is required to adopt multiple national plans including lifestyle modifications, medical interventions, and public education on NCDs risk factors

Phoma stem canker disease on oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in China is caused by Leptosphaeria biglobosa ‘brassicae’

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Ze Liu, Akinwunmi O. Latunde-Dada, Avice M. Hall, Bruce D. L. Fitt, ‘Phoma stem canker disease on oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in China is caused by Leptosphaeria biglobosa ‘brassicae’’, European Journal of Plant Pathology, Vol. 140(4): 841-857, December 2014. The final publication is available at Springer via: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10658-014-0513-7 © Koninklijke Nederlandse Planteziektenkundige Vereniging 2014Phoma stem canker of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) is a globally important disease that is caused by the sibling ascomycete species Leptosphaeria maculans and L. biglobosa. Sixty fungal isolates obtained from oilseed rape stems with phoma stem canker disease symptoms collected from four provinces in China in 1999, 2005 and 2006 were all identified as Leptosphaeria biglobosa, not L. maculans, by PCR diagnostics based on species-specific primers. There were no differences in cultural characteristics (e.g. pigmentation and in vitro growth) between these L. biglobosa isolates from China and those of 37 proven L. biglobosa isolates from Europe or Canada. In studies using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, Chinese L. biglobosa populations were genetically more similar to European L. biglobosa populations than to the more diverse Canadian L. biglobosa populations. Sequencing of gene fragments of β-tubulin, actin and the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of rDNA from L. biglobosa isolates from China, Europe, Australia and Canada showed a closer taxonomic similarity of Chinese L. biglobosa to the European L. biglobosa ‘brassicae’ than to Canadian L. biglobosa ‘canadensis’ or to the Australian L. biglobosa ‘occiaustralensis’ or ‘australensis’ subclades. These results suggest that the Chinese L. biglobosa population in this study is in the same subclade as European L. biglobosa ‘brassicae’ populationsPeer reviewe