Think National, Forecast Local: A Case Study of 71 German Urban Housing Markets

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to predict housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. We are interested in whether local business confidence indicators facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears to dominate all the others for all cities and market segments. However, there are several predictors that are especially useful, namely price-to-rent ratios, the business confidence at the national level, and consumer surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are consistently selected among the top forecasting models/approaches. However, given a rather small sample size in our recursive forecasting exercise, the optimal combination weights is only possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by a reduction in RMSFE, compared to the naive models. In separate cases, however, the magnitude of improvement is about 40%

European SMEs amidst the COVID-19 crisis: assessing impact and policy responses

This paper consider how the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged European small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector, and draw suggests policy implications. The sudden onslaught of the pandemic has acted as an economic shock, and we consider how it is likely to affect different types of manufacturing SMEs. We distinguish between immediate effects, a result of the almost-simultaneous lockdowns across Europe and its major trading partners, and longer-term implications for both SMEs and the global value chains where they are inserted. In the shorter run, most SMEs have faced logistical challenges in addition to demand disruptions, although the severity has differed across firms and industries. We argue that in the longer-term, there will be different challenges and opportunities depending on the type of SME. Policy interventions will also need to be sensitive to the different types of SMEs, rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. The policy mix will need to shift from its initial focus on the survival of European SMEs in the short term, towards a more structural and longer-term approach based on promoting their renewal and growth through innovation, internationalization and networking

New Horizons for Germany's Africa Policy

This paper deals with Germany's new Africa policy. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) presented a new Africa concept in January 2017. The BMZ wants to counter the further marginalisation of Africa with inclusive and sustainable growth. Chancellor Angela Merkel will explain her new policy for Africa at the G20 summit in Hamburg in July 2017, in an attempt to gain the approval of the other G20 members for focused cooperation with Africa. The paper argues that it remains solely the duty of African states to take their development into their own hands. Cooperation can support this process, but it cannot assume what is each state's individual responsibility. The Marshall Plan with Africa aims to develop a joint agenda with the countries of Africa. Yet because the African countries did not participate in developing the concept, the plan derived so far is more of a plan for Africa, identifying which measures the BMZ would like to implement in order to contribute to sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Africa. Africa is becoming increasingly differentiated, and developing a joint strategy with individual countries or groups of countries that reflects the varying speeds at which changes are occurring would be a decisive step. The plan does not cover sufficient ground on this issue. In order to develop a coherent Africa concept for the German federal government, the participation of the most important ministries needs to be improved, and the chancellor needs to be in charge of the overall management. The paper concludes that Germany's Africa policy needs to be redesigned. The Marshall Plan has generated a shift, but it does not provide sufficient guidance to new horizons and away from the well-beaten track of traditional development cooperation. The departure to a new age that is defined by increased cooperation with democratic African countries which are capable of reform, and by a courageous and consistent stance in relation to non-democratic countries, has not yet taken place

Identifying Local Tax Mimicking: Administrative Borders and a Policy Reform

This paper exploits an exogenous reform of the local fiscal equalization scheme in the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia to identify tax mimicking by municipalities in the neighboring state of Lower Saxony. The spatial lag regressions provide no evidence for the existence of strategic interactions in municipal business and property taxes. In contrast, traditional spatial lag regressions that rely on variation in neighbors' demographic, political, or economic characteristics for identification provide strong evidence for strategic interactions. This pattern of results indicates that most of the extant literature overestimates the importance of local tax mimicking

Mehr Marktnaehe, mehr Betriebsnaehe Arbeitsvermittlung im Fokus der Unternehmen; Ergebnisse einer DIHK-Unternehmensbefragung Fruehjahr 2002

Der Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag (DIHK) hat im Fruehjahr 2002 die Industrie- und Handelskammern (IHKs) gebeten, die Unternehmen zum Thema Arbeitsvermittlung zu befragen. Es geht um die Wege und Mittel bei der Suche nach Arbeitskraeften, die Vermittlungserfolge der Arbeitsaemter und der privaten Arbeitsvermittler, die Bewertung der Vermittlungstaetigkeit und die Vorschlaege zur Verbesserung der Zusammenarbeit mit den Arbeitsaemtern. Der DIHK-Auswertung liegen mehr als 10.000 Unternehmensantworten aus 52 IHKs zu Grunde. Nach Wirtschaftsbereichen betrachtet stammen die Antworten aus der Industrie (39 Prozent), aus der Bauwirtschaft (6 Prozent), aus dem Handel (23 Prozent) und aus den Dienstleistungen (32 Prozent). Die Unternehmensuntergliederung nach Unternehmensgroessen weist 28 Prozent kleine Unternehmen mit bis zu 19 Beschaeftigten aus, 47 Prozent mittlere Unternehmen mit 20 bis 199 Beschaeftigten sowie rund 18 Prozent mittelgrosse Unternehmen mit bis zu 999 Beschaeftigten. 7 Prozent der Antworten entfallen auf grosse Unternehmen mit mehr als 1.000 Mitarbeitern. (IAB2)Available from Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag -DIHK-, Berlin (DE) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman