The Economic and Fiscal Benefits of Pro-Growth Policies

In testimony before the U.S. House Budget Committee, public finance fellow John Diamond outlines steps to reduce projected federal expenditures and reform the U.S. tax system to maximize economic growth

The Dynamic Effects of Eliminating or Curtailing the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction

The authors examine the potential dynamic fiscal effects of revising or completely eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction. This paper was presented at the National Tax Associations Annual Conference on Nov. 9-11, 2017

Economic Foundations of the Current Regulatory Reform Efforts

article published in economic journalAlmost since the inception of the risk and environmental agencies in the early 1970s, there has been a continuing concern with ensuring that regulations yield societal benefits commensurate with their costs. This recognition of the need for balance, in turn, has led policymakers to seek a greater role for economists, and the principles of economic analysis undoubtedly will continue to play a central role in the debate over the future of regulatory policy

An Investigation of Longwall Gob Gas Behavior and Control Methods

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has initiated the use of a tracer gas in field studies to characterize geologic and mining factors influencing the migration of longwall gob gas. Three studies have been conducted using sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) at a coal mine in the Northern Appalachian Basin operating in the Pittsburgh Coalbed. Eight underground tracer gas releases and one gob gas venthole release are summarized. The results indicate that the gas flow in the bleeder network and in the interior regions of longwall panel gobs do not strongly interact and that the negative pressure provided by gob gas venthole exhausters is very significant in maintaining this behavior. The data also show that ventilation practices employed in a large multi-panel gob area are functioning in accordance with the intent of the engineering design, a fact which would be difficult to evaluate using conventional mine ventilation measurement methods

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced. METHODS: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January, 2020, and February, 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas. To estimate the early dynamics of transmission in Wuhan, we fitted a stochastic transmission dynamic model to multiple publicly available datasets on cases in Wuhan and internationally exported cases from Wuhan. The four datasets we fitted to were: daily number of new internationally exported cases (or lack thereof), by date of onset, as of Jan 26, 2020; daily number of new cases in Wuhan with no market exposure, by date of onset, between Dec 1, 2019, and Jan 1, 2020; daily number of new cases in China, by date of onset, between Dec 29, 2019, and Jan 23, 2020; and proportion of infected passengers on evacuation flights between Jan 29, 2020, and Feb 4, 2020. We used an additional two datasets for comparison with model outputs: daily number of new exported cases from Wuhan (or lack thereof) in countries with high connectivity to Wuhan (ie, top 20 most at-risk countries), by date of confirmation, as of Feb 10, 2020; and data on new confirmed cases reported in Wuhan between Jan 16, 2020, and Feb 11, 2020. FINDINGS: We estimated that the median daily reproduction number (Rt) in Wuhan declined from 2·35 (95% CI 1·15-4·77) 1 week before travel restrictions were introduced on Jan 23, 2020, to 1·05 (0·41-2·39) 1 week after. Based on our estimates of Rt, assuming SARS-like variation, we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan before these control measures, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but might lead to new outbreaks eventually. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research

Biases in the perceived timing of perisaccadic perceptual and motor events

Subjects typically experience the temporal interval immediately following a saccade as longer than a comparable control interval. One explanation of this effect is that the brain antedates the perceptual onset of a saccade target to around the time of saccade initiation. This could explain the apparent continuity of visual perception across eye movements. Thisantedating account was tested in three experiments in which subjects made saccades of differing extents and then judged either the duration or the temporal order of key events. Postsaccadic stimuli underwent subjective temporal lengthening and had early perceived onsets. A temporally advanced awareness of saccade completion was also found, independently of antedating effects. These results provide convergent evidence supporting antedating and differentiating it from other temporal biases

SARS-CoV-2 antibody trajectories after a single COVID-19 vaccination with and without prior infection

Given high SARS-CoV-2 incidence, coupled with slow and inequitable vaccine roll-out in many settings, there is a need for evidence to underpin optimum vaccine deployment, aiming to maximise global population immunity. We evaluate whether a single vaccination in individuals who have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 generates similar initial and subsequent antibody responses to two vaccinations in those without prior infection. We compared anti-spike IgG antibody responses after a single vaccination with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, or mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the COVID-19 Infection Survey in the UK general population. In 100,849 adults median (50 (IQR: 37–63) years) receiving at least one vaccination, 13,404 (13.3%) had serological/PCR evidence of prior infection. Prior infection significantly boosted antibody responses, producing higher peak levels and/or longer half-lives after one dose of all three vaccines than those without prior infection receiving one or two vaccinations. In those with prior infection, the median time above the positivity threshold was >1 year after the first vaccination. Single-dose vaccination targeted to those previously infected may provide at least as good protection to two-dose vaccination among those without previous infection

Big data, small concepts:Histosophy as an approach to longue-durée history

In this essay, we sketch out a method, histosophy, which makes possible the study of intellectual history and conceptual genealogy both in depth and over long periods of time. Histosophy uses digital tools to survey ‘large issues within small compasses.’ A genealogy of signifiers, it considers metonymic parts of a problem in order to contribute precisely and coherently to a larger perspective. We outline the theoretical contours of our approach. We exemplify how it works in practice by looking at the signifier ‘esprit de corps’, the study of which is presented in detail in the histosophical book The Genealogy of Esprit de Corps(Edinburgh University Press, 2019). The phrase ‘esprit de corps’ has been widely used since the eighteenth century in different discourses (political, military, sociological, etc.), but it is sufficiently limited that its genealogy can be traced across centuries and nations with precision, coherence, clarity, and with the help of automated search engines. By contrast, related but bigger concepts like freedom, individualism or solidarity are part of dozens of disparate and fuzzy discourses, so often uttered that the analysis of modern uses is problematic. The histosophical methodology is applicable in six discrete stages, here outlined

The Erotic and the Vulgar: Visual Culture and Organized Labor's Critique of U.S. Hegemony in Occupied Japan

This essay engages the colonial legacy of postwar Japan by arguing that the political cartoons produced as part of the postwar Japanese labor movement’s critique of U.S. cultural hegemony illustrate how gendered discourses underpinned, and sometimes undermined, the ideologies formally represented by visual artists and the organizations that funded them. A significant component of organized labor’s propaganda rested on a corpus of visual media that depicted women as icons of Japanese national culture. Japan’s most militant labor unions were propagating anti-imperialist discourses that invoked an engendered/endangered nation that accentuated the importance of union roles for men by subordinating, then eliminating, union roles for women