Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced. METHODS: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January, 2020, and February, 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas. To estimate the early dynamics of transmission in Wuhan, we fitted a stochastic transmission dynamic model to multiple publicly available datasets on cases in Wuhan and internationally exported cases from Wuhan. The four datasets we fitted to were: daily number of new internationally exported cases (or lack thereof), by date of onset, as of Jan 26, 2020; daily number of new cases in Wuhan with no market exposure, by date of onset, between Dec 1, 2019, and Jan 1, 2020; daily number of new cases in China, by date of onset, between Dec 29, 2019, and Jan 23, 2020; and proportion of infected passengers on evacuation flights between Jan 29, 2020, and Feb 4, 2020. We used an additional two datasets for comparison with model outputs: daily number of new exported cases from Wuhan (or lack thereof) in countries with high connectivity to Wuhan (ie, top 20 most at-risk countries), by date of confirmation, as of Feb 10, 2020; and data on new confirmed cases reported in Wuhan between Jan 16, 2020, and Feb 11, 2020. FINDINGS: We estimated that the median daily reproduction number (Rt) in Wuhan declined from 2·35 (95% CI 1·15-4·77) 1 week before travel restrictions were introduced on Jan 23, 2020, to 1·05 (0·41-2·39) 1 week after. Based on our estimates of Rt, assuming SARS-like variation, we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan before these control measures, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but might lead to new outbreaks eventually. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research

The Grizzly, May 3, 1994

Spring Fling \u2794 • SERV Finishes Busy Semester • Alpha Sigma Nu Sponsors MS Walk-a-thon • A Bitter Farewell • Spade: A Waste • A Belated Farewell • Senior Spotlights: Cynthia Babcock; Erika Compton • Summer \u2794 Entertainment Preview • Concerts • The 1994 Phillies: What a Differencehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1338/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, April 26, 1994

Richter to Leave Presidency • Richter: Then and Now • S.T.A.R. Raising Awareness • Economics Conference Held at Ursinus • Vandalism in Olin • A Necessary Tension: Greeks and Administration • Final Exam Schedule • It\u27s Alive, It\u27s Alive • Moshing, Body Surfing and The Gin Blossoms • NBA Playoff Preview • Men\u27s Tennis Looks for Strong Finishhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1337/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, April 19, 1994

Erdrich Speaks of Cultural Struggles • Friendly Fire Over Iraq • Greeks Participate in Greek Week • U.S.G.A. Responds to Requests for a Wismer Meal Plan • Tropical Conservationist to Speak at Ursinus • President John Bartholomew Speaks Again • Tuning in to Talk Radio • Bands to Perform Saturday • It\u27s Not a Matter of Dryness • Women\u27s Lacrosse Crushes Swarthmore; Falls to Johns Hopkins • Eagles Draft Preview • George White Named New Men\u27s Basketball Coach at Ursinushttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1336/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, April 12, 1994

Djibouti Represented by Ursinus • Battle Over Taxes Intensifies • Anniversary Celebration Continues • 1994 Ruby • Wellness Fair to be Held • Medieval Fest Held for Physically Challenged • Phi Beta Kappa\u27s New Inductees • USGA Responding to Student Needs • Senior Spotlight: Barbara Lampe • Bears Sweep F&M • Men\u27s Tennis Coming Together • Golf Team Undefeated • Lurie Buys Eagles • UC Frosh Assaulted by Phanatichttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1335/thumbnail.jp

Quantitative imaging reveals steatosis and fibro-inflammation in multiple organs in people with type 2 diabetes: a real-world study.

We aimed to determine the extent of multi-organ fat accumulation and fibro-inflammation in individuals living with type 2 diabetes. We deeply phenotyped individuals with type 2 diabetes (134 from secondary care, 69 from primary care) with multi-organ, quantitative multi-parametric MRI and compared with 134 matched controls and 92 normal weight controls. We examined the impact of diabetes duration, obesity status and glycemic control. Ninety-three of the individuals with type 2 diabetes were re-evaluated at 7 months (median). Multi-organ abnormalities were more common in individuals with type 2 diabetes (94%) than in age, BMI-matched healthy or healthy normal weight people. We demonstrated a high burden of combined steatosis and fibro-inflammation, within the liver, pancreas and kidneys (41, 17 and 10%), associated with visceral adiposity (73%) and poor vascular health (82%). Obesity was most closely associated with advanced liver disease, renal and visceral steatosis, and multi-organ abnormalities whilst poor glycaemic control was associated with pancreatic fibro-inflammation. Pharmacological therapies with proven cardiorenal protection improved liver and vascular health unlike conventional glucose-lowering treatments, whilst weight loss or improved glycaemic control reduced multi-organ adiposity (p≤0.01). Quantitative imaging in people with type 2 diabetes highlights widespread organ abnormalities and may provide useful risk and treatment stratification

Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding changes in human mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing the impacts of travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility between 1st January and 1st March 2020, and discuss their public health implications. An outbound travel surge from Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented was also observed across China due to the Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday travel may have played a larger role in mobility changes compared to impending travel restrictions. Holiday travel also shifted healthcare pressure related to COVID-19 towards locations with lower healthcare capacity. Network analyses showed no sign of major changes in the transportation network after Lunar New Year. Changes observed were temporary and did not lead to structural reorganisation of the transportation network during the study period

Comprehensive Evidence-Based Assessment and Prioritization of Potential Antidiabetic Medicinal Plants: A Case Study from Canadian Eastern James Bay Cree Traditional Medicine

Canadian Aboriginals, like others globally, suffer from disproportionately high rates of diabetes. A comprehensive evidence-based approach was therefore developed to study potential antidiabetic medicinal plants stemming from Canadian Aboriginal Traditional Medicine to provide culturally adapted complementary and alternative treatment options. Key elements of pathophysiology of diabetes and of related contemporary drug therapy are presented to highlight relevant cellular and molecular targets for medicinal plants. Potential antidiabetic plants were identified using a novel ethnobotanical method based on a set of diabetes symptoms. The most promising species were screened for primary (glucose-lowering) and secondary (toxicity, drug interactions, complications) antidiabetic activity by using a comprehensive platform of in vitro cell-based and cell-free bioassays. The most active species were studied further for their mechanism of action and their active principles identified though bioassay-guided fractionation. Biological activity of key species was confirmed in animal models of diabetes. These in vitro and in vivo findings are the basis for evidence-based prioritization of antidiabetic plants. In parallel, plants were also prioritized by Cree Elders and healers according to their Traditional Medicine paradigm. This case study highlights the convergence of modern science and Traditional Medicine while providing a model that can be adapted to other Aboriginal realities worldwide

The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To contain the spread of COVID-19, a cordon sanitaire was put in place in Wuhan prior to the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2020. We assess the efficacy of the cordon sanitaire to delay the introduction and onset of local transmission of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China. METHODS: We estimated the number of infected travellers from Wuhan to other major cities in mainland China from November 2019 to February 2020 using previously estimated COVID-19 prevalence in Wuhan and publicly available mobility data. We focused on Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as four representative major cities to identify the potential independent contribution of the cordon sanitaire and holiday travel. To do this, we simulated outbreaks generated by infected arrivals in these destination cities using stochastic branching processes. We also modelled the effect of the cordon sanitaire in combination with reduced transmissibility scenarios to simulate the effect of local non-pharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: We find that in the four cities, given the potentially high prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan between December 2019 and early January 2020, local transmission may have been seeded as early as 1-8 January 2020. By the time the cordon sanitaire was imposed, infections were likely in the thousands. The cordon sanitaire alone did not substantially affect the epidemic progression in these cities, although it may have had some effect in smaller cities. Reduced transmissibility resulted in a notable decrease in the incidence of infection in the four studied cities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that sustained transmission was likely occurring several weeks prior to the implementation of the cordon sanitaire in four major cities of mainland China and that the observed decrease in incidence was likely attributable to other non-pharmaceutical, transmission-reducing interventions

Overview of the SDSS-IV MaNGA Survey: Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory

We present an overview of a new integral field spectroscopic survey called MaNGA (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory), one of three core programs in the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) that began on 2014 July 1. MaNGA will investigate the internal kinematic structure and composition of gas and stars in an unprecedented sample of 10,000 nearby galaxies. We summarize essential characteristics of the instrument and survey design in the context of MaNGA\u27s key science goals and present prototype observations to demonstrate MaNGA\u27s scientific potential. MaNGA employs dithered observations with 17 fiber-bundle integral field units that vary in diameter from 12\u27\u27 (19 fibers) to 32\u27\u27 (127 fibers). Two dual-channel spectrographs provide simultaneous wavelength coverage over 3600-10300 Å at R ~ 2000. With a typical integration time of 3 hr, MaNGA reaches a target r-band signal-to-noise ratio of 4-8 (Å–1 per 2\u27\u27 fiber) at 23 AB mag arcsec–2, which is typical for the outskirts of MaNGA galaxies. Targets are selected with M * ≳ 109 M ☉ using SDSS-I redshifts and i-band luminosity to achieve uniform radial coverage in terms of the effective radius, an approximately flat distribution in stellar mass, and a sample spanning a wide range of environments. Analysis of our prototype observations demonstrates MaNGA\u27s ability to probe gas ionization, shed light on recent star formation and quenching, enable dynamical modeling, decompose constituent components, and map the composition of stellar populations. MaNGA\u27s spatially resolved spectra will enable an unprecedented study of the astrophysics of nearby galaxies in the coming 6 yr