Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: Discussion of Missing Points and Promising Approaches

There are concerns that in order to exploit the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information Technology Era, it is necessary to advance Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) of both product and process. Among these new capabilities, the FTA Methods Working Group has recently identified three main converging areas of development: complex networks, simulation modeling of complex adaptive systems (CAS), and the search of vast databases. Such convergence has rejuvenated the growth of FTA methods and practice, much in accordance with the perspective envisioned in Linstone (1999), following his optimistic view of a strong, confident technology-driven scenario, which would bring a renewed impetus toward new methods in technological forecasting. Focusing on new methods related to the new capabilities, we must borrow the discussion of methods and tools that have explosively grown in recent years in the fields of biosciences, bioinformatics and evolution. Among the needs for FTA envisioned by the FTA Methods Working Group, we find a questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (TFA Methods Working Group, 2004): Can artificial technological worlds be created by simulation modeling analogous to biological ones? This question is hardly a new one, and we can even trace at least a three-decade long debate on this issue. What makes the difference today, are exactly those powerful new capabilities provided by the Information Technology Era and the manifold convergence of information and molecular technologies that are contributing enormously to new insights in simulation methods and evolutionary programming. In the previously cited 30-year anniversary issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Bowonder et al (1999); briefly reviewed this topic by mainly focusing on some of the lessons learned from evolutionary theory as it anticipates changes in evolutionary trajectories, and proposed a research agenda for future research. But these authors have not considered, in detail, the new capabilities and have not identified the possible problems and obstacles that must be overcome to transform evolutionary approaches into useful forecasting tools. The present paper intends to present the state-of-the-art on this debate and to address some important considerations necessary to answer the above question. The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the effort to-date has been primarily centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution and technological evolution and is mostly based on verbal theorizing. It seems that a synthesis of biology and technology remains beyond reach, with some people even doubting whether it can ever be achieved. In the following lines we intend to point out and briefly discuss some quite important aspects that have been overlooked and misinterpreted in this exciting debate

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Tese de mestrado integrado. Engenharia Informática e Computação. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

Contribution of the losses in the conductors of an installation in the use of electronic ballasts in fluorescent illumination

The global economic and energy situation implies that all contributions for reducing energy consumption are important and relevant in terms of study and investment analysis. In electrical installations, energy consumption can be reduced by reducing losses in the conductors, associated with the use of electronic ballasts in fluorescent illumination, allowing a better use of the energy and of the installed power, which can be an important issue, particularly when using renewable energies. In this sense, this study presents a new software application that compares and chooses the best investment in the acquisition and installation of electronic ballasts in fluorescent illumination

An Extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Performance Increases and the Rebound Effect

Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound -increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. An inequality criterion for dematerialization is developed that includes technical performance changes over time and demand rebound effects: the inequality highlights the importance of demand elasticity and the annual technical performance improvement rate. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In all 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical capability rate improvement for each case are consistent with continuation of materialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that dematerialization and sustainability are significant challenges not easily met by undirected technological change

Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook

In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles. As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics. Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section. The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985). This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization

Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher–Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.Authors Tessaleno Devezas, Joao C.O. Matias and Abılio M.P. Silva wish to thank the Portuguese Fundacao de Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT), which supported (through the Unity of R&D no. 151) the present investigation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Thermomechanical evaluation of self-flowing refractory castables with and without the addition of aluminate cement

Much has been discussed about the advantages regarding the thermomechanical performance of self-flow refractory castables (SFRC), with very little or no addition of calcium aluminate cement (CAC) when compared to conventional composites with cement. Previous works demonstrated that a 100% alumina SFRC with optimized particle size distribution simultaneously results in high-flowability fresh paste and high mechanical strength. In this work, the thermomechanical behaviour of zero-cement ceramic matrix is compared to that of the equivalent composite with 1% CAC content. The results show that the differences in performance can be related to differences in hydration mechanisms, namely the formation sequence of calcium aluminate hydrates, which results in increased open porosity. With lower dried strength, the all-alumina castable presents lower porosity, higher mechanical strength and uncompromised thermal shock resistance, being a valuable option when fast drying or rough green handling can be avoided.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio