Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR

Comparison of imputation methods for handling missing covariate data when fitting a Cox proportional hazards model: a resampling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The appropriate handling of missing covariate data in prognostic modelling studies is yet to be conclusively determined. A resampling study was performed to investigate the effects of different missing data methods on the performance of a prognostic model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Observed data for 1000 cases were sampled with replacement from a large complete dataset of 7507 patients to obtain 500 replications. Five levels of missingness (ranging from 5% to 75%) were imposed on three covariates using a missing at random (MAR) mechanism. Five missing data methods were applied; a) complete case analysis (CC) b) single imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (SI), c) multiple imputation using regression switching imputation, d) multiple imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) multiple imputation using flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to each dataset and estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures obtained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CC produced biased regression coefficient estimates and inflated standard errors (SEs) with 25% or more missingness. The underestimated SE after SI resulted in poor coverage with 25% or more missingness. Of the MI approaches investigated, MI using MICE-PMM produced the least biased estimates and better model performance measures. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates with 75% missingness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Very few differences were seen between the results from all missing data approaches with 5% missingness. However, performing MI using MICE-PMM may be the preferred missing data approach for handling between 10% and 50% MAR missingness.</p

Biomarker Changes Associated with Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) Conversion: A Two-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Study in Exposed Household Contacts

Background:A high prevalence (50-80%) of Tuberculin Skin Test Positivity (TST+ \u3eor=10 mm indurations) has been reported in TB endemic countries. This pool forms a huge reservoir for new incident TB cases. However, immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion are largely unknown. The objective of this study was to identify immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion after acute Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) Methodology/Principal Findings:A 24 month longitudinal study was carried out in a recently MTB exposed cohort of household contacts (HC = 93, 75% TST+). Control group consisted of unexposed community controls (EC = 59, 46%TST+). Cytokine secretion was assessed in whole blood cultures in response to either mycobacterial culture filtrate (CF) antigens or mitogens (PHA or LPS) using Elisa methodology. Compared to the EC group, the HC group at recruitment (Kruskal-Wallis Test) showed significantly suppressed IFN gamma (p = 0.0001), raised IL-10 (p = 0.0005) and raised TNF alpha (p = 0.001) in response to CF irrespective of their TST status. Seventeen TST-HC, showed TST conversion when retested at 6 months. Post TST conversion (paired t tests) significant increases were observed for CF induced IFN gamma (p = 0.038), IL-10 (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.006). Cytokine responses were also compared in the exposed HC group with either recent infection [(TST converters (N = 17)] or previous infection [TST+ HC (N = 54)] at 0, 6, 12 and 24 months using ANOVA on repeated measures. Significant differences between the exposed HC groups were noted only at 6 months. CF induced IFN gamma was higher in previously infected HC group (p = 0.038) while IL-10 was higher in recently infected HC group (p = 0.041). Mitogen induced cytokine secretion showed similar differences for different group.Conclusions/Significance:Our results suggest that TST conversion is associated with early increases in IFN gamma and IL-10 responses and precedes latency by several months post exposure

Armed conflicts have an impact on the spread of tuberculosis: the case of the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p/> <p>A pessimistic view of the impact of armed conflicts on the control of infectious diseases has generated great interest in the role of conflicts on the global TB epidemic. Nowhere in the world is such interest more palpable than in the Horn of Africa Region, comprising Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan. An expanding literature has demonstrated that armed conflicts stall disease control programs through distraction of health system, interruption of patients' ability to seek health care, and the diversion of economic resources to military ends rather than health needs. Nonetheless, until very recently, no research has been done to address the impact of armed conflict on TB epidemics in the Somali Regional State (SRS) of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study is based on the cross-sectional data collected in 2007, utilizing structured questionnaires filled-out by a sample of 226 TB patients in the SRS of Ethiopia. Data was obtained on the delay patients experienced in receiving a diagnosis of TB, on the biomedical knowledge of TB that patients had, and the level of self-treatment by patients. The outcome variables in this study are the delay in the diagnosis of TB experienced by patients, and extent of self-treatment utilized by patients. Our main explanatory variable was place of residence, which was dichotomized as being in 'conflict zones' and in 'non-conflict zones'. Demographic data was collected for statistical control. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests were used on calculations of group differences. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between outcome and predictor variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two hundred and twenty six TB patients were interviewed. The median delay in the diagnosis of TB was 120 days and 60 days for patients from conflict zones and from non-conflict zones, respectively. Moreover, 74% of the patients residing in conflict zones undertook self-treatment prior to their diagnosis. The corresponding proportion from non-conflict zones was 45%. Fully adjusted logistic regression analysis shows that patients from conflict zones had significantly greater odds of delay (OR = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.47-6.36) and higher self treatment utilization (OR = 3.34; 95% CI: 1.56-7.12) compared to those from non-conflict zones.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients from conflict zones have a longer delay in receiving a diagnosis of TB and have higher levels of self treatment utilization. This suggests that access to TB care should be improved by the expansion of user friendly directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS) in the conflict zones of the region.</p

Endothelial and Smooth Muscle Cells from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Have Increased Oxidative Stress and Telomere Attrition

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex multi-factorial disease with life-threatening complications. AAA is typically asymptomatic and its rupture is associated with high mortality rate. Both environmental and genetic risk factors are involved in AAA pathogenesis. Aim of this study was to investigate telomere length (TL) and oxidative DNA damage in paired blood lymphocytes, aortic endothelial cells (EC), vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMC), and epidermal cells from patients with AAA in comparison with matched controls. Methods: TL was assessed using a modification of quantitative (Q)-FISH in combination with immunofluorescence for CD31 or α-smooth muscle actin to detect EC and VSMC, respectively. Oxidative DNA damage was investigated by immunofluorescence staining for 7, 8-dihydro-8-oxo-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-oxo-dG). Results and Conclusions: Telomeres were found to be significantly shortened in EC, VSMC, keratinocytes and blood lymphocytes from AAA patients compared to matched controls. 8-oxo-dG immunoreactivity, indicative of oxidative DNA damage, was detected at higher levels in all of the above cell types from AAA patients compared to matched controls. Increased DNA double strand breaks were detected in AAA patients vs controls by nuclear staining for γ-H2AX histone. There was statistically significant inverse correlation between TL and accumulation of oxidative DNA damage in blood lymphocytes from AAA patients. This study shows for the first time that EC and VSMC from AAA have shortened telomeres and oxidative DNA damage. Similar findings were obtained with circulating lymphocytes and keratinocytes, indicating the systemic nature of the disease. Potential translational implications of these findings are discussed. © 2012 Cafueri et al

Potential of novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection phase-dependent antigens in the diagnosis of TB disease in a high burden setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Confirming tuberculosis (TB) disease in suspects in resource limited settings is challenging and calls for the development of more suitable diagnostic tools. Different <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) </it>infection phase-dependent antigens may be differentially recognized in infected and diseased individuals and therefore useful as diagnostic tools for differentiating between <it>M.tb </it>infection states. In this study, we assessed the diagnostic potential of 118 different <it>M.tb </it>infection phase-dependent antigens in TB patients and household contacts (HHCs) in a high-burden setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Antigens were evaluated using the 7-day whole blood culture technique in 23 pulmonary TB patients and in 19 to 21 HHCs (total n = 101), who were recruited from a high-TB incidence community in Cape Town, South Africa. Interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) levels in culture supernatants were determined by ELISA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eight classical TB vaccine candidate antigens, 51 DosR regulon encoded antigens, 23 TB reactivation antigens, 5 TB resuscitation promoting factors (rpfs), 6 starvation and 24 other stress response-associated TB antigens were evaluated in the study. The most promising antigens for ascertaining active TB were the rpfs (Rv0867c, Rv2389c, Rv2450c, Rv1009 and Rv1884c), with Areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) between 0.72 and 0.80. A combination of <it>M.tb </it>specific ESAT-6/CFP-10 fusion protein, Rv2624c and Rv0867c accurately predicted 73% of the TB patients and 80% of the non-TB cases after cross validation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>IFN-γ responses to TB rpfs show promise as TB diagnostic candidates and should be evaluated further for discrimination between <it>M.tb </it>infection states.</p

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe