Reward-to-risk ratios in Turkish financial markets

This paper investigates how reward-to-risk ratios compare among various government debt security (GDS) indices and sector indices in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Risk is measured by either standard deviation or nonparametric and parametric value at risk. We find that the GDS indices have higher reward-to-risk ratios compared to the sector indices. GDS indices with longer maturities have lower reward-to-risk ratios and this reduction is especially pronounced when the ratios take downside risk into account. The reward-to-risk rankings for the sector indices are similar for each measure and the results are robust to currency conversion

Risk-adjusted performances of world equity indices

This paper investigates whether equity indices of 24 emerging and 28 developed markets compensate their investors equally after taking risk into account. We place special emphasis on downside risk by calculating both nonparametric and parametric value at risk. We find that when all 52 markets are ranked based on their alternative reward-to-risk ratios, almost all of the countries in the top quartile are emerging markets whereas almost all of the countries in the bottom quartile are developed markets. These results are supported by the finding that pooled means of the reward-to-risk ratios are significantly higher for emerging markets compared to those of developed markets. Focusing on the period after the initiation of the recent financial crisis reveals that, although both developed and emerging markets suffered in terms of generating higher returns per unit risk, emerging markets continued to outperform developed markets and the outperformance became more pronounced

Reward-to-risk ratios in Turkish financial markets (Türkiye finans piyasalarında getiri-risk rasyoları)

This paper investigates how reward-to-risk ratios compare among various government debt security (GDS) indices and sector indices in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Risk is measured by either standard deviation or nonparametric and parametric value at risk. We find that the GDS indices have higher reward-to-risk ratios compared to the sector indices. GDS indices with longer maturities have lower reward-to-risk ratios and this reduction is especially pronounced when the ratios take downside risk into account. The reward-to-risk rankings for the sector indices are similar for each measure and the results are robust to currency conversion

Aggregate Earnings and Expected Stock Returns in Emerging Markets

This paper examines the time-series predictability of aggregate stock returns in twenty emerging markets. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings in the United States, earnings yield forecasts the time series of aggregate stock returns in emerging markets. We consider aggregate earnings not as normalizing variables for stock price but as predictive variables in their own right. Aggregate earnings covary with the market returns; hence, it is not just the mean reversion of stock prices that is responsible for the forecasting power of earnings yield. These results are robust across different estimation methods and after controlling for small-sample bias and macroeconomic variables.business cycle, earnings, emerging markets, market returns, predictability,

Can overreaction explain part of the size premium?

This paper uncovers several empirical regularities in the returns of small stocks. First, within the sample of firms that have low market capitalisations, stocks with low past profitability ('laggers') bring returns that are significantly higher than those of stocks with high past profitability ('leaders'). Second, the size premium is generated largely by small laggers. Moreover, both patterns are particularly pronounced at earnings-announcement dates, suggesting that unexpected earnings growth can explain a portion of the abnormal returns to small stocks. Since these findings point to market inefficiency, they are especially important for the revenue management of money managers who invest in small stocks.small-firm effect; forecasting; revenue management; return anomalies; small firms; overreaction; low market capitalisation; size premium; earnings growth; unexpected growth; small stocks.

Downside risk in emerging markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric Value at Risk (VaR) are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return tradeoff. For emerging markets, fixed-effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification

Risk-adjusted performances of world equity indices

This paper investigates whether equity indices of 24 emerging and 28 developed markets compensate their investors equally after taking risk into account, and examines the predictive power of reward-to-risk ratios for expected market returns. We place special emphasis on downside risk by calculating both nonparametric and parametric value at risk. We find that when all 52 markets are ranked based on their alternative reward-to-risk ratios, almost all of the countries in the top quartile are emerging markets whereas almost all of the countries in the bottom quartile are developed markets. The pooled means of the reward-to-risk ratios are significantly higher for emerging markets compared to those of developed markets. Our main analysis reveals that there is a significantly positive relation between various reward-to-risk metrics and expected market returns. Both portfolio analysis and cross-sectional regressions are utilized to examine this relation