Hierarchical modelling of species sensitivity distribution: development and application to the case of diatoms exposed to several herbicides

The Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a key tool to assess the ecotoxicological threat of contaminant to biodiversity. It predicts safe concentrations for a contaminant in a community. Widely used, this approach suffers from several drawbacks: i)summarizing the sensitivity of each species by a single value entails a loss of valuable information about the other parameters characterizing the concentration-effect curves; ii)it does not propagate the uncertainty on the critical effect concentration into the SSD; iii)the hazardous concentration estimated with SSD only indicates the threat to biodiversity, without any insight about a global response of the community related to the measured endpoint. We revisited the current SSD approach to account for all the sources of variability and uncertainty into the prediction and to assess a global response for the community. For this purpose, we built a global hierarchical model including the concentration-response model together with the distribution law for the SSD. Working within a Bayesian framework, we were able to compute an SSD taking into account all the uncertainty from the original raw data. From model simulations, it is also possible to extract a quantitative indicator of a global response of the community to the contaminant. We applied this methodology to study the toxicity of 6 herbicides to benthic diatoms from Lake Geneva, measured from biomass reduction

DRomics: A Turnkey Tool to Support the Use of the Dose–Response Framework for Omics Data in Ecological Risk Assessment

International audienceOmics approaches (e.g. transcriptomics, metabolomics) are promising for ecological risk assessment (ERA) since they provide mechanistic information and early warning signals. A crucial step in the analysis of omics data is the modelling of concentration-dependency which may have different trends including monotonic (e.g. linear, exponential) or biphasic (e.g. U shape, bell shape) forms. The diversity of responses raises challenges concerning detection and modelling of significant responses and effect concentration (EC) derivation. Furthermore, handling high-throughput datasets is time-consuming and requires effective and automated processing routines. Thus, we developed an open source tool (DRomics,available as an R-package and as a web-based service) which, after elimination of molecular responses (e.g. gene expressions from microarrays) with no concentration-dependency and/or high variability, identifies the best model for concentration-response curve description. Subsequently, an EC (e.g. a benchmark dose) is estimated from each curve and curves are classified based on their model parameters. This tool is especially dedicated to manage data obtained from an experimental design favoring a greatnumber of tested doses rather than a great number of replicates and also to handle properly monotonic and biphasic trends. The tool finally restitutes a table of results that can be directly used to perform ERA approaches

Evaluation using latent class models of the diagnostic performances of three ELISA tests commercialized for the serological diagnosis of <i>Coxiella burnetii</i> infection in domestic ruminants

International audienceELISA methods are the diagnostic tools recommended for the serological diagnosis of Coxiella burnetii infection in ruminants but their respective diagnostic performances are difficult to assess because of the absence of a gold standard. This study focused on three commercial ELISA tests with the following objectives (1) assess their sensitivity and specificity in sheep, goats and cattle, (2) assess the between-and within-herd seroprevalence distribution in these species, accounting for diagnostic errors, and (3) estimate optimal sample sizes considering sensitivity and specificity at herd level. We comparatively tested 1413 cattle, 1474 goat and 1432 sheep serum samples collected in France. We analyzed the cross-classified test results with a hierarchical zero-inflated beta-binomial latent class model considering each herd as a population and conditional dependence as a fixed effect. Potential biases and coverage probabilities of the model were assessed by simulation. Conditional dependence for truly seropositive animals was high in all species for two of the three ELISA methods. Specificity estimates were high, ranging from 94.8% [92.1; 97.8] to 99.2% [98.5; 99.7], whereas sensitivity estimates were generally low, ranging from 39.3 [30.7; 47.0] to 90.5% [83.3; 93.8]. Betweenand within-herd seroprevalence estimates varied greatly among geographic areas and herds. Overall, goats showed higher within-herd seroprevalence levels than sheep and cattle. The optimal sample size maximizing both herd sensitivity and herd specificity varied from 3 to at least 20 animals depending on the test and ruminant species. This study provides better interpretation of three widely used commercial ELISA tests and will make it possible to optimize their implementation in future studies. The methodology developed may likewise be applied to other human or animal diseases

Development, feeding, and sex shape the relative quantity of the nutritional obligatory symbiont Wolbachia in bed bugs

The common bed bug, Cimex lectularius, is a hemipteran insect that feeds only on blood, and whose bites cause public health issues. Due to globalization and resistance to insecticides, this pest has undergone a significant and global resurgence in recent decades. Blood is an unbalanced diet, lacking notably sufficient B vitamins. Like all strict hematophagous arthropods, bed bugs host a nutritional symbiont supplying B vitamins. In C. lectularius, this nutritional symbiont is the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia (wCle). It is located in specific symbiotic organs, the bacteriomes, as well as in ovaries. Experimental depletion of wCle has been shown to result in longer nymphal development and lower fecundity. These phenotypes were rescued by B vitamin supplementation. Understanding the interaction between wCle and the bed bug may help to develop new pest control methods targeting the disruption of this symbiotic interaction. The objective of this work was thus to quantify accurately the density of wCle over the life cycle of the host and to describe potential associated morphological changes in the bacteriome. We also sought to determine the impact of sex, feeding status, and aging on the bacterial population dynamics. We showed that the relative quantity of wCle continuously increases during bed bug development, while the relative size of the bacteriome remains stable. We also showed that adult females harbor more wCle than males and that wCle relative quantity decreases slightly in adults with age, except in weekly-fed males. These results are discussed in the context of bed bug ecology and will help to define critical points of the symbiotic interaction during the bed bug life cycle

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome associated with COVID-19: An Emulated Target Trial Analysis.

RATIONALE: Whether COVID patients may benefit from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) compared with conventional invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of ECMO on 90-Day mortality vs IMV only Methods: Among 4,244 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 included in a multicenter cohort study, we emulated a target trial comparing the treatment strategies of initiating ECMO vs. no ECMO within 7 days of IMV in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FiO2 <80 or PaCO2 ≥60 mmHg). We controlled for confounding using a multivariable Cox model based on predefined variables. MAIN RESULTS: 1,235 patients met the full eligibility criteria for the emulated trial, among whom 164 patients initiated ECMO. The ECMO strategy had a higher survival probability at Day-7 from the onset of eligibility criteria (87% vs 83%, risk difference: 4%, 95% CI 0;9%) which decreased during follow-up (survival at Day-90: 63% vs 65%, risk difference: -2%, 95% CI -10;5%). However, ECMO was associated with higher survival when performed in high-volume ECMO centers or in regions where a specific ECMO network organization was set up to handle high demand, and when initiated within the first 4 days of MV and in profoundly hypoxemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an emulated trial based on a nationwide COVID-19 cohort, we found differential survival over time of an ECMO compared with a no-ECMO strategy. However, ECMO was consistently associated with better outcomes when performed in high-volume centers and in regions with ECMO capacities specifically organized to handle high demand. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)