Bayesian Semiparametric Multi-State Models

Multi-state models provide a unified framework for the description of the evolution of discrete phenomena in continuous time. One particular example are Markov processes which can be characterised by a set of time-constant transition intensities between the states. In this paper, we will extend such parametric approaches to semiparametric models with flexible transition intensities based on Bayesian versions of penalised splines. The transition intensities will be modelled as smooth functions of time and can further be related to parametric as well as nonparametric covariate effects. Covariates with time-varying effects and frailty terms can be included in addition. Inference will be conducted either fully Bayesian using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques or empirically Bayesian based on a mixed model representation. A counting process representation of semiparametric multi-state models provides the likelihood formula and also forms the basis for model validation via martingale residual processes. As an application, we will consider human sleep data with a discrete set of sleep states such as REM and Non-REM phases. In this case, simple parametric approaches are inappropriate since the dynamics underlying human sleep are strongly varying throughout the night and individual-specific variation has to be accounted for using covariate information and frailty terms

La dimensión social del actor local en el talento territorial

This research starts from the definition of the local actor in the approaches presented by García (2007), Fernández (2008) and Arocena (2002). Local actors with their associative capacity linked to decisions and actions, influences of power or expertise for territorial development. This article studies the social dimension, the social capital, of the local actor, within the territorial talent. This dimension is linked to the requirement to local actors involved in territorial development to have high levels of social organization for production, protagonist social participation, self-dependence, trust in the systems and institutions of participation, ability to articulate with others organized actors or in communities, as well as with other territories and with territorial networks of development. Methodologically, it is an exploratory investigation, analyzing a territory as a living laboratory based on a systemic approach, from the interpretive systemic methodology, supported by bibliographical and electronic references, giving support to the author's reflections and experiences on the topic addressed in an inductive way and constructivist. As a result, the conceptualization of the social dimension of the local actor and its role in territorial development from a referential territory under investigation (Southern Zone of Lake Maracaibo) is presented, concluding with the identification of three scenarios of action by the local actor within the social dimension of territorial talent.Esta investigación parte de la definición del actor local en los planteamientos expuestos por García (2007), Fernández (2008) y Arocena (2002). Los actores locales con su capacidad asociativa ligada a decisiones y acciones, a influencias de poder o de experticia para el desarrollo territorial. Este artículo estudia la dimensión social, - el capital social -, del actor local, dentro del talento territorial.  Esta dimensión está vinculada con la exigencia a los actores locales involucrados en el desarrollo territorial de contar con altos niveles de organización social para la producción, participación social protagónica, auto dependencia, confianza en los sistemas e instituciones de la participación, capacidad de articulación con otros actores organizados o en comunidades, así como, con otros territorios y con redes territoriales del desarrollo. Metodológicamente es una investigación exploratoria, de análisis de un territorio como laboratorio vivencial a partir de un enfoque sistémico procesal, desde la metodología sistémica interpretativa, sustentada en referencias bibliográficas y electrónicas dando apoyo a las reflexiones y experiencias del autor sobre el tema abordado de manera inductiva y constructivista. Como resultado se presentan la conceptualización de la dimensión social del actor local y su rol en el desarrollo territorial a partir de un territorio referencial bajo investigación (Zona Sur del Lago de Maracaibo. Concluyendo con laidentificación de tres escenarios de actuación del actor local dentro dela dimensión social del talento territorial

Mejoramiento del departamento de compras, despachos e inventarios en la empresa Valcharo Constructores

El desarrollo del proyecto mejoramiento del área compras, despachos e inventarios en la empresa Valcharo Constructores, fue producto que nos impulsó a hacer una especialización en Gerencia de proyectos por parte del gerente general quien ha sido un gerente empírico; con la oportunidad de trabajar en grupo se planteó la necesidad de mejorar un área critica de la empresa; la cual estaba generando muchos problemas a nivel general. Al realizar este proyecto el propósito fue mejorar el área de compras, despachos e inventarios, realizando todos los planes de gestión requeridos, para que esta área funcione estratégicamente dentro de la organización, siendo el pilar y modelo para mejorar las otras áreas de la empresa. Este proyecto se desarrolla en el municipio de Granada, Meta donde se tiene el centro de operaciones del área que es la bodega de la empresa, donde partimos desde la parte física de la bodega, para crear una organización clave en este recurso físico que permita ser clave a la hora de la operatividad del área. Con el propósito de desarrollar este mejoramiento se puso a disposición un recurso financiero de $191.100.000 (Ciento noventa y un millones cien mil pesos Mte) para desarrollar las actividades durante un periodo de 6 meses, de acuerdo a lo establecido en el cronograma del proyecto. La metodología que se implementó para recolectar la información fue la de una investigación de campo de nivel descriptivo. La población estudiada estuvo conformada por los trabajadores del área, a quienes se les aplicó un instrumento tipo encuesta y un cuestionario, lo que permitió conseguir los datos necesarios para tener una visión general. Los resultados precisaron las respuestas a los interrogantes formulados, donde surge la necesidad laboral de una propuesta con la finalidad de que los directivos y docentes deben ser capacitados y orientados, a asumir la tarea de la optimización del proceso de comunicación organizacional de forma tal que este sea siempre orientado por senderos de tolerancia, respeto, comprensión, entendimiento, entre ambos para que el proceso de mejoramiento sea eficaz y productivo. Considerando estos resultados se proponen un plan de acción de mejorar los resultados del área, logrando que esta sea más productiva y permita optimizar los rendimientos de la empresa

Pedestrian Behaviour Modeling and Simulation from Real Time Data Information

International audienceAccidents of pedestrians sometimes take lives, in Bucara-manga since 2012 pedestrian died by accidents are 179, and 2873 hurt, In a city as Bucaramanga, this means each day at least one pedestrian is involved in a accident. Therefore is necessary to know the causes of accidents in the way to decrease the accidents. One of many reasons to know the causes is with system dynamics, simulating the events of the Pedestrian behavior when accidents occur in risen cities. The implementation simulation joint with technology and research looking for saving lives, reducing the accidental rate, and to implementing or suggesting new policies from the government. This project is looking for the implementation of technology in video records and Deep Learning analysis for the service of the citizens, where a simulation model will be revealing the main variables which intervene in the pedestrian's behavior. As initials results, shows the methodology here implemented, can reach data which was insufficient before thanks to the cameras and software of objects detection , those are the data input for the simulation model, which after to implement a change in a particular spot of Bucaramanga is possible decrease the accident rate in 80% where pedestrians could be involved

Datacentric analysis to reduce pedestrians accidents: A case study in Colombia

International audienceSince 2012, in a case-study in Bucaramanga-Colombia, 179 pedestrians died in car accidents, and another 2873 pedestrians were injured. Each day, at least one passerby is involved in a tragedy. Knowing the causes to decrease accidents is crucial, and using system-dynamics to reproduce the collisions' events is critical to prevent further accidents. This work implements simulations to save lives by reducing the city's accidental rate and suggesting new safety policies to implement. Simulation's inputs are video recordings in some areas of the city. Deep Learning analysis of the images results in the segmentation of the different objects in the scene, and an interaction model identifies the primary reasons which prevail in the pedestrians or vehicles' behaviours. The first and most efficient safety policy to implement-validated by our simulations-would be to build speed bumps in specific places before the crossings reducing the accident rate by 80%

Does ischemic cardiomyopathy behave differently in women? A holistic approach

La cardiopatía isquémica es una entidad con relevancia clínica tanto en hombres como en mujeres. Sin embargo, se han apreciado diferencias en el mecanismo fisiopatológico en las mujeres que condicionan una presentación clínica, factores de riesgo y tratamientos terapéuticos que pueden variar con respecto a los del hombre. Se ha realizado una revisión narrativa que pone de manifiesto estas diferencias con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un abordaje más óptimo de la miocardiopatía isquémica en las mujeres.Ischemic heart disease is a clinically relevant entity in both men and women. However, differences have been observed in the pathophysiological mechanism in women, which determine a clinical presentation, risk factors and therapeutic treatments that may vary with respect to men. A narrative review has been carried out that reveals these differences in order to carry out a more optimal approach to ischemic cardiomyopathy in women

Dise?o, procura y construcci?n del Golden Capital Hotel

Esta tesis tiene como objetivo desarrollar un plan de gesti?n de proyectos para el dise?o, procura y construcci?n (EPC) del ?Golden Capital Hotel? para la cadena hotelera Varcletti Hotel. El documento tiene como base de desarrollo las buenas pr?cticas mencionadas en el PMBOK 6ta edici?n, as? como los conocimientos adquiridos durante la Maestr?a en Project Management. La empresa Innova Per? obtuvo el encargo de desarrollar el proyecto, el cual se ha seleccionado debido al alineamiento que tiene con su estrategia empresarial. Se busca obtener una utilidad del 8% y consolidar la presencia de Innova Per? en el mercado de la construcci?n a terceros y afianzar una alianza estrat?gica con este cliente. El proyecto presenta las siguientes caracter?sticas: ser? un hotel de 4 estrellas desarrollado en base al manual de est?ndares de dise?o de Varcletti Hotel y la normativa nacional vigente, tendr? 4 s?tanos y 15 pisos superiores con los requerimientos propios de un hotel de esta envergadura adem?s contar? con la certificaci?n LEED Silver y su desarrollo deber? estar apoyado en un modelo BIM LOD 300. Finalmente, se han definido restricciones como un costo m?ximo del proyecto de 38 millones de soles y un plazo m?ximo de 45 meses

Preliminary assessment of the knowledge gaps to improve nature conservation of soil biodiversity

20 páginas.- 2 tablas.- referencias.-In the past decades, there has been an increasing awareness of the importance of Nature Conservation of Soil Biodiversity. Approximately 59% of all biodiversity on the planet is comprised of soil living organisms (Anthony et al. 2023), ranging from microorganisms to vertebrate species (FAO et al. 2020, Anthony et al. 2023). Soil biodiversity plays a central role in soil health and ecosystem services, as the activities of soil biota support the delivery of various ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, prevention of soil erosion, pest control, and cleaning of air and water (Banerjee and van der Heijden 2023, Creamer et al. 2022, Pulleman et al. 2012). However, soil biodiversity is currently threatened by intensive agriculture and forestry as well as soil sealing in urban environments. Protecting soil biodiversity and thus its ecosystem functions and services will have positive effects on a number of sustainability development goals (SDGs), including water quality and food security, among others (FAO et al. 2020, Köninger et al. 2022). Nevertheless, recent work did not find positive effects of current conservation practices on soil biodiversity and its ecosystem functions (Zeiss et al. 2022). The authors suggest this is predominantly because the priorities and the decision-making paradigms used for selection of sites for conservation do not take into account soil biodiversity, its associated ecosystem functions, or the value of belowground ecosystems to human well-being and economic development (Bardgett and van der Putten 2014, FAO et al. 2020, Zeiss et al. 2022). While biodiversity-friendly management approaches, such as ecological intensification (Kleijn et al. 2019), regenerative agriculture and agroecology (Barrios et al. 2023, FAO 2023, Grilli et al. 2023) are receiving increasing attention, studies focused on conservation of soil biodiversity and its ecosystem functions are still limited (Bardgett and van der Putten 2014, FAO et al. 2020, Zeiss et al. 2022). Thus, there is a stark need for identifying knowledge gaps and new research and innovation to help protect and conserve soil biodiversity, the ecosystem services they provide, and their impact on human health and economics.Peer reviewe

Stroop Color-Word Interference Test: Normative data for Spanish-speaking pediatric population

OBJECTIVE: To generate normative data for the Stroop Word-Color Interference test in Spanish-speaking pediatric populations. METHOD: The sample consisted of 4,373 healthy children from nine countries in Latin America (Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Puerto Rico) and Spain. Each participant was administered the Stroop Word-Color Interference test as part of a larger neuropsychological battery. The Stroop Word, Stroop Color, Stroop Word-Color, and Stroop Interference scores were normed using multiple linear regressions and standard deviations of residual values. Age, age2, sex, and mean level of parental education (MLPE) were included as predictors in the analyses. RESULTS: The final multiple linear regression models showed main effects for age on all scores, except on Stroop Interference for Guatemala, such that scores increased linearly as a function of age. Age2 affected Stroop Word scores for all countries, Stroop Color scores for Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Spain; Stroop Word-Color scores for Ecuador, Mexico, and Paraguay; and Stroop Interference scores for Cuba, Guatemala, and Spain. MLPE affected Stroop Word scores for Chile, Mexico, and Puerto Rico; Stroop Color scores for Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Spain; Stroop Word-Color scores for Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Spain; and Stroop-Interference scores for Ecuador, Mexico, and Spain. Sex affected Stroop Word scores for Spain, Stroop Color scores for Mexico, and Stroop Interference for Honduras. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest Spanish-speaking pediatric normative study in the world, and it will allow neuropsychologists from these countries to have a more accurate approach to interpret the Stroop Word-Color Interference test in pediatric populations