Sample size calculation for randomized selection trials with a time‐to‐event endpoint and a margin of practical equivalence

Selection trials are used to compare potentially active experimental treatments without a control arm. While sample size calculation methods exist for binary endpoints, no such methods are available for time-to-event endpoints, even though these are ubiquitous in clinical trials. Recent selection trials have begun using progression-free survival as their primary endpoint, but have dichotomized it at a specific time point for sample size calculation and analysis. This changes the clinical question and may reduce power to detect a difference between the arms. In this article, we develop the theory for sample size calculation in selection trials where the time-to-event endpoint is assumed to follow an exponential or Weilbull distribution. We provide a free web application for sample size calculation, as well as an R package, that researchers can use in the design of their studies

A Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Crossover Study of the Effect of Beetroot Juice Containing Dietary Nitrate on Aortic and Brachial Blood Pressure Over 24 h

Dietary inorganic nitrate in beetroot can act as a source of nitric oxide and has been reported to lower brachial blood pressure (BP). This study examined the effect of inorganic nitrate in beetroot juice on aortic (central) BP acutely and over the subsequent 24-h period. A double blind, randomized, placebo-controlled crossover trial was performed in fifteen healthy, normotensive men and women (age 22–40 years). Participants were randomized to receive beetroot juice containing nitrate (6.5–7.3 mmol) or placebo beetroot juice from which nitrate had been removed (<0.06 mmol nitrate). Effects on aortic systolic BP were measured at 30 min (primary endpoint), 60 min and over a subsequent 24 h period using an ambulatory BP monitor. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) was also measured at 30 min. Following a washout period, the procedure was repeated within 7 days with crossover to the opposite arm of the trial. Compared with placebo, ingestion of beetroot juice containing nitrate lowered aortic systolic BP at 30 min by 5.2 (1.9–8.5) mmHg [mean (95% confidence interval); p < 0.01]. A smaller effect on aortic systolic BP was observed at 60 min. There were minimal effects on brachial BP or cfPWV. Effects on aortic systolic BP were not sustained over the subsequent 24 h and there were no effects on other hemodynamic parameters during ambulatory monitoring. A single dose of beetroot juice containing nitrate lowers aortic BP more effectively than brachial BP in the short term, but the effects are comparatively short-lived and do not persist over the course of the same day

Associations of night-time road traffic noise with carotid intima-media thickness and blood pressure : The Whitehall II and SABRE study cohorts

Background: Road traffic noise has been linked to increased risk of stroke, for which hypertension and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) are risk factors. A link between traffic noise and hypertension has been established, but there are few studies on blood pressure and no studies on cIMT. Objectives: To examine cross-sectional associations for long-term exposure to night-time noise with cIMT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and hypertension. Methods: The study population consisted of 2592 adults from the Whitehall II and SABRE cohort studies living within Greater London who had cIMT, SBP and DBP measured. Exposure to night-time road traffic noise (A-weighted dB, referred to as dBA) was estimated at each participant's residential postcode centroid. Results: Mean night-time road noise levels were 52 dBA (SD=4). In the pooled analysis adjusted for cohort, sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, smoking, area-level deprivation and NOx there was a 9.1 mu m (95% CI: -7.1, 25.2) increase in cIMT in association with 10 dBA increase in night-time noise. Analyses by noise categories of 5560 dBA (16.2 mu m, 95% CI:-8.7, 41.2), and N60 dBA (21.2 mu m, 95% CI:-2.5, 44.9) vs. 60 dBA vs. Conclusions: After adjustments, including for air pollution, the association between night-time road traffic noise and cIMT was only observed among non-medication users but associations with blood pressure and hypertension were largely null. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Air pollution and cardiovascular mortality with over 25years follow-up : a combined analysis of two British cohorts

Adverse effects of air pollution on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality are well established. There are comparatively fewer studies in Europe, and in the UK particularly, than in North America. We examined associations in two British cohorts with >25years of follow-up.; Annual average NO2, SO2 and black smoke (BS) air pollution exposure estimates for 1991 were obtained from land use regression models using contemporaneous monitoring data. From the European Study of Cohorts and Air Pollution (ESCAPE), air pollution estimates in 2010-11 were obtained for NO2, NOx, PM10, PMcoarse and PM2.5. The exposure estimates were assigned to place of residence 1989 for participants in a national birth cohort born in 1946, the MRC National Study of Health and Development (NSHD), and an adult multi-ethnic London cohort, Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) recruited 1988-91. The combined median follow-up was 26years. Single-pollutant competing risk models were employed, adjusting for individual risk factors.; Elevated non-significant hazard ratios for CVD mortality were seen with 1991 BS and SO2 and with ESCAPE PM10 and PM2.5 in fully adjusted linear models. Per 10μg/m(3) increase HRs were 1.11 [95% CI: 0.76-1.61] for BS, 1.05 [95% CI: 0.91-1.22] for SO2, 1.16 [95% CI: 0.70-1.92] for PM10 and 1.30 [95% CI: 0.39-4.34] for PM2.5, with largest effects seen in the fourth quartile of BS and PM2.5 compared to the first with HR 1.24 [95% CI: 0.91-1.61] and 1.21 [95% CI: 0.88-1.66] respectively. There were no consistent associations with other ESCAPE pollutants, or with 1991 NO2. Modelling using Cox regression led to similar results.; Our results support a detrimental long-term effect for air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality

Impaired exercise capacity in post-COVID syndrome: the role of VWF-ADAMTS13 axis

Post-COVID syndrome (PCS) or Long-COVID is an increasingly recognised complication of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, characterised by persistent fatigue, reduced exercise tolerance chest pain, shortness of breath and cognitive slowing. Acute COVID-19 is strongly linked with increased risk of thrombosis; a prothrombotic state, quantified by elevated Von Willebrand Factor (VWF) Antigen (Ag):ADAMTS13 ratio, and is associated with severity of acute COVID-19 infection. We investigated if patients with PCS also had evidence of a pro-thrombotic state associating with symptom severity. In a large cohort of patients referred to a dedicated post-COVID-19 clinic, thrombotic risk including VWF(Ag):ADAMTS13 ratio, was investigated. An elevated VWF(Ag):ADAMTS13 ratio (≥1.5) was raised in nearly one-third of the cohort and four times more likely in patients with impaired exercise capacity as evidenced by desaturation ≥3% and/or rise in lactate level more than 1 from baseline on 1-minute sit to stand test and/or 6-minute walk test (p<0.0001). 20% (56/276) had impaired exercise capacity, of which 55% (31/56) had a raised VWF(Ag):ADAMTS13 ratio ≥1.5 (p<0.0001). FVIII and VWF(Ag) were elevated in 26% and 18% respectively and support a hypercoagulable state in some patients with PCS. These findings suggest possible ongoing microvascular/endothelial dysfunction in the pathogenesis of PCS and highlight a potential role for antithrombotic therapy in the management of these patients

High-Grade Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms and Improved Prognostic Stratification With the New World Health Organization 2019 Classification A Validation Study From a Single-Institution Retrospective Analysis

Objectives: There is a pressing need to develop clinical management pathways for grade 3 (G3) gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP NEN). Methods: We performed a retrospective study on patients with metastatic G3 GEP NEN. The relationship between baseline characteristics and progression-free survival and overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We included 142 patients (74 well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors [WDNETs], 68 poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas [PDNECs]). Patients with WDNET had prolonged survival compared with PDNEC (median, 24 vs 15 months, P = 0.0001), which persisted in both pancreatic and nonpancreatic cohorts. Well-differentiated morphology, Ki-67 <50% and positive somatostatin receptor imaging were independently associated with prolonged survival. Of the subgroup treated with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy, response rates were favorable (partial response, 47%; stable disease, 30%); there was no significant difference in response rates nor progression-free survival between WDNET and PDNEC despite significantly prolonged overall survival in the WDNET cohort. Conclusions: Our study corroborates the knowledge of 2 prognostically distinct subgroups within the World Health Organization 2019 G3 GEP NEN population, observed in both pancreatic and nonpancreatic gastrointestinal cohorts. Definitive management pathways are needed to reflect the differences between G3 WDNET and PDNEC

Phase 2a randomised controlled feasibility trial of a new ‘balanced binocular viewing’ treatment for unilateral amblyopia in children age 3–8 years : trial protocol

Introduction Treatments for amblyopia, the most common vision deficit in children, often have suboptimal results. Occlusion/atropine blurring are fraught with poor adherence, regression and recurrence. These interventions target only the amblyopic eye, failing to address imbalances of cortical input from the two eyes (‘suppression’). Dichoptic treatments manipulate binocular visual experience to rebalance input. Poor adherence in early trials of dichoptic therapies inspired our development of balanced binocular viewing (BBV), using movies as child-friendly viewable content. Small observational studies indicate good adherence and efficacy. A feasibility trial is needed to further test safety and gather information to design a full trial. Methods/analysis We will carry out an observer-masked parallel-group phase 2a feasibility randomised controlled trial at two sites, randomising 44 children aged 3–8 years with unilateral amblyopia to either BBV or standard occlusion/atropine blurring, with 1:1 allocation ratio. We will assess visual function at baseline, 8 and 16 weeks. The primary outcome is intervention safety at 16 weeks, measured as change in interocular suppression, considered to precede the onset of potential diplopia. Secondary outcomes include safety at other time points, eligibility, recruitment/retention rates, adherence, clinical outcomes. We will summarise baseline characteristics for each group and assess the treatment effect using analysis of covariance. We will compare continuous clinical secondary endpoints between arms using linear mixed effect models, and report feasibility endpoints using descriptive statistics. Ethics/dissemination This trial has been approved by the London-Brighton & Sussex Research Ethics Committee (18/LO/1204), National Health Service Health Research Authority and Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. A lay advisory group will be involved with advising on and disseminating the results to non-professional audiences, including on websites of funder/participating institutions and inputting on healthcare professional audience children would like us to reach. Reporting to clinicians and scientists will be via internal and external meetings/conferences and peer-reviewed journals

Feasibility of a new ‘balanced binocular viewing’ treatment for unilateral amblyopia in children aged 3–8 years (BALANCE): results of a phase 2a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the safety of dichoptic balanced binocular viewing (BBV) for amblyopia in children, plus feasibility, adherence, acceptability, trial methodology and clinical measures of visual function. Design: We carried out an observer-masked parallel-group phase 2a feasibility randomised controlled trial. Setting: Two study sites, a secondary/tertiary and a community site. Participants: We enrolled 32 children aged 3–8 years with unilateral amblyopia who had completed optical adaptation where indicated. 20 children attended the 16-week exit visit (retention 63%). Interventions: Children were randomised to BBV (movies customised to interocular acuity difference at baseline) for 1 hour a day (active intervention) or standard management as per parental choice (part-time occlusion or atropine blurring, control). All interventions were used at home, daily for 16 weeks. Primary outcome measure: ‘VacMan suppression test’ of interocular balance at 16 weeks from randomisation. Secondary outcome measures: feasibility outcomes (recruitment and retention ratios, adherence with the allocated intervention); safety outcomes at other time points (changes in prevalence of diplopia, manifest strabismus, suppression/interocular balance on a range of tests); efficacy outcomes (clinical measures of visual function, such as best-corrected visual acuity, BCVA). Outcome measures were identical to those planned in the protocol. Results: Primary outcome: At baseline, values for the interocular balance point were higher (indicating greater suppression of the amblyopic eye) in the occlusion group than in the BBV group. These values shifted downwards on average for the occlusion group, significantly decreasing from baseline to week 16 (t8=4.49, p=0.002). Balance values did not change between baseline and week 16 for the BBV group (t9=−0.82, p=0.435). At 16 weeks, there was no statistical difference in interocular balance/suppression change over time between the two arms. The difference at follow-up between the arms, adjusted for baseline, was −0.02 (95% CI −0.28 to 0.23, p=0.87). Feasibility: We prescreened 144 records of potentially eligible children. Between 28 October 2019 and 31 July 2021, including an interruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 32 children were screened and randomised (recruitment rate 22%), 16 to BBV and 16 to standard treatment. 20 children attended the 16-week exit visit (retention 63%). Mean adherence with BBV as proportion of viewing time prescribed was 56.1% (SD36) at 8 and 57.9% (SD 30.2) at 16 weeks. Mean adherence with prescribed occlusion time was 90.1% (SD 19.7) at 8 and 59.2% (SD 24.8) at 16 weeks. Secondary safety/efficacy outcomes: One child in the BBV arm reported transient double vision, which resolved; two reported headaches, which led to withdrawal. BCVA improved from mean 0.47 (SD0.18) logMAR at randomisation to 0.26 (0.14) with standard treatment, and from 0.55 (0.28) to 0.32 (0.26) with BBV. Outcomes at 16 weeks did not differ between treatments. Participant experience: Families were generally positive about BBV, but families found both patching and BBV difficult to integrate into family routines. Conclusions: Recruitment rates indicate that a future phase 3 trial will require multiple sites or a longer enrolment period. Retention and adherence rates were lower than anticipated, which will influence future study designs. Dichoptic treatment may be equal to occlusion treatment in safety and efficacy; headaches may lead to discontinuation. Integration into family routines may constitute a barrier to implementation. Trial registration number NCT03754153

WAFER trial: a study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial comparing wide-awake local anaesthesia no tourniquet (WALANT) to general and regional anaesthesia with tourniquet for flexor tendon repair

Introduction: Flexor tendons are traditionally repaired under either general anaesthesia (GA) or regional anaesthesia (RA), allowing for the use of an arm tourniquet to minimise blood loss and establish a bloodless surgical field. However, the use of tourniquets exposes the patient to certain risks, including skin, muscle and nerve injuries. A recent advancement in anaesthesia delivery involves the use of a wide-awake approach where no sedation nor tourniquets are used (wide-awake local anaesthesia no tourniquet (WALANT)). WALANT uses local anaesthetic with epinephrine to provide pain relief and vasoconstriction, reducing operative bleeding. Several studies revealed potential benefits for WALANT compared with GA or RA. However, there remains a paucity of high-quality evidence to support the use of WALANT. As a result of this uncertainty, the clinical practice varies considerably. We aim to evaluate the feasibility of WALANT as an alternative to GA and RA in patients undergoing surgical repair of flexor tendon injuries. This involves addressing factors such as clinician and patient support for a trial, clinical equipoise, trial recruitment and dropout and the most relevant outcomes measures for a future definitive trial. // Methods and analysis: WAFER is a multicentre, single-blinded, parallel group, randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the feasibility of WALANT versus RA and GA. The target population is patients with acute traumatic flexor tendon injuries, across 3 major hand surgery units in England involving a total of 60 participants. Outcome assessors will be blinded. The primary outcome will be the ability to recruit patients into the trial, while secondary outcomes include difference in functional outcome, patient-reported outcome measures, health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and complication rates. // Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from the London—City and East Research Ethics Committee (22/PR/1197). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication, conferences, patient information websites and social media networks

Predicting radiotherapy response, Toxicities and quality-of-life related functional outcomes in soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities (PredicT) using dose–volume constraints development:a study protocol

Introduction: Radiotherapy improves local tumour control in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities (STSE) but it also increases the probability of long-term toxicities such as tissue fibrosis, joint stiffness and lymphoedema. The use of radiation dose and volume thresholds, called dose constraints, may potentially reduce the development of toxicities in STSE. The aim of this study is to determine predictors of radiotherapy-related side effects for STSE. Methods and analysis: Predicting radiotherapy response, Toxicities and quality-of-life related functional outcomes in soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities (PredicT) is a multicentre observational study comprising two cohorts (PredicT A and B). PredicT A, a retrospective analysis of the UK VorteX (NCT00423618) and IMRiS clinical trials (NCT02520128), is aimed at deriving a statistical model for development of dose–volume constraints. This model will use receiving operator characteristics and multivariate analysis to predict radiotherapy side effects and patient-reported outcomes. PredicT B, a prospective cohort study of 150 patients with STSE, is aimed at testing the validity of those dose–volume constraints. PredicT B is open and planned to complete recruitment by September 2024. Ethics and dissemination: PredicT B has received ethical approval from North West - Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (20/NW/0267). Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part. We will disseminate our findings via publications, presentations, national and international conference meetings and engage with local charities. Trial registration number: NCT05978024