Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud

The proliferation of elections in even those states that are arguably anything but democratic has given rise to a focused interest on developing methods for detecting fraud in the official statistics of a state's election returns. Among these efforts are those that employ Benford's Law, with the most common application being an attempt to proclaim some election or another fraud free or replete with fraud. This essay, however, argues that, despite its apparent utility in looking at other phenomena, Benford's Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford's Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its "success rate" either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst

Methodological Differences in the Interpretation of Fatigue Data from Repeated Maximal Effort Knee Extensions

Background: Isokinetic fatigue protocols are commonly used in both research as well as in kinesiology education. However, fatigue quantification methods vary between studies. Objective: Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine how fatigue quantification methods affect data interpretation and which methods may be most appropriate. Method: In this study, we quantified fatigue from a repeated maximal effort isokinetic knee extension test using different methods, as seen in published research. Nine healthy males and nine healthy females performed 50 concentric knee extensions at 180°•s-1. For each repetition, torque was quantified as either peak torque (PT), torque at the mid-point of the range of motion, and torque integrated over the full, middle 30° range of motion, and isokinetic range of motion. Fatigue Index was quantified using either the first and last three or five repetitions or the peak and last three or five repetitions. Torque slopes were quantified using all repetitions or repetitions that occurred at and beyond the repetition at which the greatest torque value occurred. Results: There was a significant inverse relationship between angle at PT and repetition number. Measures of fatigue were overestimated when torque integral over the isokinetic range of motion was utilized. When the first three or first five repetitions were utilized for Fatigue Index calculations, fatigue was underestimated. Conclusion: Results suggest that torque integral over the full range of motion is likely the best representation of strength or work. Also, researchers should omit the first few repetitions from their quantification of Fatigue Index or torque slope

Grayscale Electron Beam Lithography Direct Patterned Antimony Sulfide

The rise of micro/nanooptics and lab-on-chip devices demands the fabrication of three-dimensional structures with decent resolution. Here, we demonstrate the combination of grayscale electron beam lithography and direct forming methodology to fabricate antimony sulfide structures with free form for the first time. The refractive index of the electron beam patterned structure was calculated based on an optimization algorithm that is combined with genetic algorithm and transfer matrix method. By adopting electron irradiation with variable doses, 4-level Fresnel Zone Plates and metalens were produced and characterized. This method can be used for the fabrication of three-dimensional diffractive optical elements and metasurfaces in a single step manner.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, 1 scheme. The Supplement Information will be given in a second Arxiv submission or the published journa

GNP-GAPDH1-22 nanovaccines prevent neonatal listeriosis by blocking microglial apoptosis and bacterial dissemination

Clinical cases of neonatal listeriosis are associated with brain disease and fetal loss due to complications in early or late pregnancy, which suggests that microglial function is altered. This is believed to be the first study to link microglial apoptosis with neonatal listeriosis and listeriosis-associated brain disease, and to propose a new nanovaccine formulation that reverses all effects of listeriosis and confers Listeria monocytogenes (LM)-specific immunity. We examined clinical cases of neonatal listeriosis in 2013-2015 and defined two useful prognostic immune biomarkers to design listeriosis vaccines: high anti-GAPDH1-22 titres and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)/interleukin (IL)-6 ratios. Therefore, we developed a nanovaccine with gold glyco-nanoparticles conjugated to LM peptide 1-22 of GAPDH (Lmo2459), GNP-GAPDH1-22 nanovaccinesformulated with a pro-inflammatory Toll-like receptor 2/4-targeted adjuvant. Neonates born to non-vaccinated pregnant mice with listeriosis, showed brain and vascular diseases and significant microglial dysfunction by induction of TNF-?-mediated apoptosis. This programmed TNF-mediated suicide explains LM dissemination in brains and livers and blocks production of early pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-1? and interferon-?/?. In contrast, neonates born to GNP-GAPDH1-22-vaccinated mothers before LM infection, did not develop listeriosis or brain diseases and had functional microglia. In nanovaccinated mothers, immune responses shifted towards Th1/IL-12 pro-inflammatory cytokine profiles and high production of anti-GAPDH1-22 antibodies, suggesting good induction of LM-specific memory

International meta-analysis of PTSD genome-wide association studies identifies sex- and ancestry-specific genetic risk loci.

The risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following trauma is heritable, but robust common variants have yet to be identified. In a multi-ethnic cohort including over 30,000 PTSD cases and 170,000 controls we conduct a genome-wide association study of PTSD. We demonstrate SNP-based heritability estimates of 5-20%, varying by sex. Three genome-wide significant loci are identified, 2 in European and 1 in African-ancestry analyses. Analyses stratified by sex implicate 3 additional loci in men. Along with other novel genes and non-coding RNAs, a Parkinson's disease gene involved in dopamine regulation, PARK2, is associated with PTSD. Finally, we demonstrate that polygenic risk for PTSD is significantly predictive of re-experiencing symptoms in the Million Veteran Program dataset, although specific loci did not replicate. These results demonstrate the role of genetic variation in the biology of risk for PTSD and highlight the necessity of conducting sex-stratified analyses and expanding GWAS beyond European ancestry populations

Potential of Airborne LiDAR Derived Vegetation Structure for the Prediction of Animal Species Richness at Mount Kilimanjaro

The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results

Potential causal association between gut microbiome and posttraumatic stress disorder

Background: The causal effects of gut microbiome and the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are still unknown. This study aimed to clarify their potential causal association using mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: The summary-level statistics for gut microbiome were retrieved from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the MiBioGen consortium. As to PTSD, the Freeze 2 datasets were originated from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Working Group (PGC-PTSD), and the replicated datasets were obtained from FinnGen consortium. Single nucleotide polymorphisms meeting MR assumptions were selected as instrumental variables. The inverse variance weighting (IVW) method was employed as the main approach, supplemented by sensitivity analyses to evaluate potential pleiotropy and heterogeneity and ensure the robustness of the MR results. We also performed reverse MR analyses to explore PTSD’s causal effects on the relative abundances of specific features of the gut microbiome. Results: In Freeze 2 datasets from PGC-PTSD, eight bacterial traits revealed a potential causal association between gut microbiome and PTSD (IVW, all P < 0.05). In addition, Genus.Dorea and genus.Sellimonas were replicated in FinnGen datasets, in which eight bacterial traits revealed a potential causal association between gut microbiome and the occurrence of PTSD. The heterogeneity and pleiotropy analyses further supported the robustness of the IVW findings, providing additional evidence for their reliability. Conclusion: Our study provides the potential causal impact of gut microbiomes on the development of PTSD, shedding new light on the understanding of the dysfunctional gut-brain axis in this disorder. Our findings present novel evidence and call for investigations to confirm the association between their links, as well as to illuminate the underlying mechanisms

Potential causal association between gut microbiome and posttraumatic stress disorder

Funding Information: We thank the participants and working staff including the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Working Group, the FinnGen consortium, and the MiBioGen consortium. Publisher Copyright: © 2024, The Author(s).Background: The causal effects of gut microbiome and the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are still unknown. This study aimed to clarify their potential causal association using mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: The summary-level statistics for gut microbiome were retrieved from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the MiBioGen consortium. As to PTSD, the Freeze 2 datasets were originated from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Working Group (PGC-PTSD), and the replicated datasets were obtained from FinnGen consortium. Single nucleotide polymorphisms meeting MR assumptions were selected as instrumental variables. The inverse variance weighting (IVW) method was employed as the main approach, supplemented by sensitivity analyses to evaluate potential pleiotropy and heterogeneity and ensure the robustness of the MR results. We also performed reverse MR analyses to explore PTSD’s causal effects on the relative abundances of specific features of the gut microbiome. Results: In Freeze 2 datasets from PGC-PTSD, eight bacterial traits revealed a potential causal association between gut microbiome and PTSD (IVW, all P < 0.05). In addition, Genus.Dorea and genus.Sellimonas were replicated in FinnGen datasets, in which eight bacterial traits revealed a potential causal association between gut microbiome and the occurrence of PTSD. The heterogeneity and pleiotropy analyses further supported the robustness of the IVW findings, providing additional evidence for their reliability. Conclusion: Our study provides the potential causal impact of gut microbiomes on the development of PTSD, shedding new light on the understanding of the dysfunctional gut-brain axis in this disorder. Our findings present novel evidence and call for investigations to confirm the association between their links, as well as to illuminate the underlying mechanisms.publishersversionpublishe