Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members’ Voting

Does a typical House member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll-call decisions? We investigate the relationship between incumbents’ electoral performance and roll-call support for their party—controlling for district ideology, challenger quality, and campaign spending, among other factors—through a series of tests of the 1956–1996 elections. The tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting. First, in each election, an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party. Second, this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants. Third, a member’s probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party, and this relationship holds for not only marginal, but also safe members

'Are we losing touch?' Mainstream parties' failure to represent their voters on immigration and its electoral consequences

In many advanced democracies, mainstream political parties have been disrupted either by the rise of new (populist) parties or by hostile takeovers. In this article we argue that immigration attitudes have had a powerful impact on the strategic environment of political parties and leaders. We show, based on evidence from a comparative study conducted by YouGov in spring of 2015, that immigration attitudes had, by that time, driven a wedge between mainstream parties - those that regularly play a role in government - and their partisans. This ‘immigration gap' opened up enormous space for new political movements to form, either inside existing parties or outside. Furthermore, we show that the representation gap on immigration issues is a relevant predictor of vote choice, so that parties are particularly likely to lose votes when they are more distant from their supporters on immigration

Ungulate preference for burned patches reveals strength of fire–grazing interaction

The interactions between fire and grazing are widespread throughout fire-dependent landscapes. The utilization of burned areas by grazing animals establishes the fire–grazing interaction, but the preference for recently burned areas relative to other influences (water, topography, etc.) is unknown. In this study, we determine the strength of the fire–grazing interaction by quantifying the influence of fire on ungulate site selection. We compare the preference for recently burned patches relative to the influence of other environmental factors that contribute to site selection; compare that preference between native and introduced ungulates; test relationships between area burned and herbivore preference; and determine forage quality and quantity as mechanisms of site selection. We used two large ungulate species at two grassland locations within the southern Great Plains, USA. At each location, spatially distinct patches were burned within larger areas through time, allowing animals to select among burned and unburned areas. Using fine scale ungulate location data, we estimated resource selection functions to examine environmental factors in site selection. Ungulates preferred recently burned areas and avoided areas with greater time since fire, regardless of the size of landscape, herbivore species, or proportion of area burned. Forage quality was inversely related to time since fire, while forage quantity was positively related. We show that fire is an important component of large ungulate behavior with a strong influence on site selection that drives the fire–grazing interaction. This interaction is an ecosystem process that supersedes fire and grazing as separate factors, shaping grassland landscapes. Inclusion of the fire–grazing interaction into ecological studies and conservation practices of fire-prone systems will aid in better understanding and managing these systems

Substantial and sustained improvements in blood pressure, weight and lipid profiles from a carbohydrate restricted diet: an observational study of insulin resistant patients in primary care

Hypertension is the second biggest known global risk factor for disease after poor diet; perhaps lifestyle interventions are underutilized? In a previous small pilot study, it was found that a low carbohydrate diet was associated with significant improvements in blood pressure, weight, ‘deprescribing’ of medications and lipid profiles. We were interested to investigate if these results would be replicated in a larger study based in ‘real world’ GP practice. 154 patients with type 2 diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance were recruited into an observational cohort study in primary care. The effects of a low carbohydrate diet sustained for an average of two years (interquartile range 10–32 months) on cardiovascular risk factors were examined. Results demonstrate significant and substantial reductions in blood pressure (mean reduction of systolic BP 10.9 mmHg (interquartile range 0–22 mmHg) (p < 0.0001), mean reduction in diastolic BP 6.3 mmHg (interquartile range 0–12.8 mmHg) (p < 0.0001) and mean weight reduction of 9.5 Kg (interquartile range 5–13 Kg) (p < 0.0001) together with marked improvement in lipid profiles. This occurred despite a 20% reduction in anti-hypertensive medications. This novel and potentially highly effective dietary modification, done very cheaply alongside routine care, offers hope that should be tested in a large prospective trial

Measuring the indirect effect: Voter initiatives and legislative production in the American states

Accepted ManuscriptRecent research has identified important policy differences between voter initiative states and pure representative states despite a lack of enough observable voter initiative campaigns to explain the policy differences. This paper investigates the indirect effects of the voter initiative process on legislative production by estimating the number of bill enacted in the American states. The results indicate that legislators in voter initiative states enact more legislation as the difficulty in qualifying a voter initiative for the ballot decreases, as the legislature is less able to alter the effects of successful voter initiatives, and as the average number of voter initiatives that appear on the ballot increases. These results provide some statistical evidence of the indirect effect of the voter initiative and are consistent with the theory that policy differences in voter initiative states are the result of the indirect effect of the voter initiative process.Randolph, G.M. (2010). Measuring the indirect effect: Voter initiatives and legislative production in the American states. Public Finance Review, 38(6), 762-786

Beyond Inventories: Emergence of a New Era in Rangeland Monitoring

In the absence of technology-driven monitoring platforms, US rangeland policies, management practices, and outcome assessments have been primarily informed by the extrapolation of local information from national-scale rangeland inventories. A persistent monitoring gap between plot-level inventories and the scale at which rangeland assessments are conducted has required decision makers to fill data gaps with statistical extrapolations or assumptions of homogeneity and equilibrium. This gap is now being bridged with spatially comprehensive, annual, rangeland monitoring data across all western US rangelands to as- sess vegetation conditions at a resolution appropriate to inform cross-scale assessments and decisions. In this paper, 20-yr trends in plant functional type cover are presented, confirming two widespread national rangeland resource concerns: widespread increases in annual grass cover and tree cover. Rangeland vegetation monitoring is now available to inform national to regional policies and provide essential data at the scales at which decisions are made and implemented

KinImmerse: Macromolecular VR for NMR ensembles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In molecular applications, virtual reality (VR) and immersive virtual environments have generally been used and valued for the visual and interactive experience – to enhance intuition and communicate excitement – rather than as part of the actual research process. In contrast, this work develops a software infrastructure for research use and illustrates such use on a specific case.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Syzygy open-source toolkit for VR software was used to write the KinImmerse program, which translates the molecular capabilities of the kinemage graphics format into software for display and manipulation in the DiVE (Duke immersive Virtual Environment) or other VR system. KinImmerse is supported by the flexible display construction and editing features in the KiNG kinemage viewer and it implements new forms of user interaction in the DiVE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In addition to molecular visualizations and navigation, KinImmerse provides a set of research tools for manipulation, identification, co-centering of multiple models, free-form 3D annotation, and output of results. The molecular research test case analyzes the local neighborhood around an individual atom within an ensemble of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) models, enabling immersive visual comparison of the local conformation with the local NMR experimental data, including target curves for residual dipolar couplings (RDCs).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The promise of KinImmerse for production-level molecular research in the DiVE is shown by the locally co-centered RDC visualization developed there, which gave new insights now being pursued in wider data analysis.</p

Terrestrial primary production for the conterminous United States derived from Landsat 30 m and MODIS 250 m

Terrestrial primary production is a fundamental ecological process and a crucial component in understanding the flow of energy through trophic levels. The global MODIS gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) products (MOD17) are widely used for monitoring GPP and NPP at coarse resolutions across broad spatial extents. The coarse input datasets and global biome‐level parameters, however, are well‐known limitations to the applicability of the MOD17 product at finer scales. We addressed these limitations and created two improved products for the conterminous United States (CONUS) that capture the spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial production. The MOD17 algorithm was utilized with medium resolution land cover classifications and improved meteorological data specific to CONUS in order to produce: (a) Landsat derived 16‐day GPP and annual NPP at 30 m resolution from 1986 to 2016 (GPPL30 and NPPL30, respectively); and (b) MODIS derived 8‐day GPP and annual NPP at 250 m resolution from 2001 to 2016 (GPPM250 and NPPM250 respectively). Biome‐specific input parameters were optimized based on eddy covariance flux tower‐derived GPP data from the FLUXNET2015 database. We evaluated GPPL30 and GPPM250 products against the standard MODIS GPP product utilizing a select subset of representative flux tower sites, and found improvement across all land cover classes except croplands. We also found consistent interannual variability and trends across NPPL30, NPPM250, and the standard MODIS NPP product. We highlight the application potential of the production products, demonstrating their improved capacity for monitoring terrestrial production at higher levels of spatial detail across broad spatiotemporal scales

Mode of delivery among HIV-Infected pregnant women in Philadelphia, 2005-2013

Objective Current guidelines call for HIV-infected women to deliver via scheduled Caesarean when the maternal HIV viral load (VL) is >1,000 copies/ml. We describe the mode of delivery among HIV-infected women and evaluate adherence to relevant recommendations. Study Design We performed a population-based surveillance analysis of HIV-infected pregnant women in Philadelphia from 2005 to 2013, comparing mode of delivery (vaginal, scheduled Caesarean, or emergent Caesarean) by VL during pregnancy, closest to the time of delivery (≤1,000 copies/ml versus an unknown VL or VL >1,000 copies/ml) and associated factors in multivariable analysis. Results Our cohort included 824 deliveries from 648 HIV-infected women, of whom 69.4% had a VL ≤1,000 copies/ml and 30.6% lacked a VL or had a VL >1,000 copies/ml during pregnancy, closest to the time of delivery. Mode of delivery varied by VL: 56.6% of births were vaginal, 30.1% scheduled Caesarean, and 13.3% emergent Caesarean when the VL was ≤1,000 copies/ml; when the VL was unknown or >1,000 copies/ml, 32.9% of births were vaginal, 49.9% scheduled Caesarean and 17.5% emergent Caesarean. In multivariable analyses, Hispanic women (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.17, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.04–0.76) and non-Hispanic black women (AOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10–0.77) were less to likely to deliver via scheduled Caesarean compared to non-Hispanic white women. Women who delivered prior to 38 weeks’ gestation (AOR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18–0.76) were also less likely to deliver via scheduled Caesarean compared to women who delivered after 38 weeks’ gestation. An interaction term for race and gestational age at delivery was significant in multivariable analysis. Non-Hispanic black (AOR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01–0.36) and Hispanic women (AOR 0.03, 95% CI 0.00–0.59) were more likely to deliver prematurely and less likely to deliver via scheduled C-section compared to non-Hispanic white women. Having a previous Caesarean (AOR 27.77, 95% CI 8.94–86.18) increased the odds of scheduled Caesarean delivery. Conclusions Only half of deliveries for women with an unknown VL or VL >1,000 copies/ml occurred via scheduled Caesarean. Delivery prior to 38 weeks, particularly among minority women, resulted in a missed opportunity to receive a scheduled Caesarean. However, even when delivering at or after 38 weeks’ gestation, a significant proportion of women did not get a scheduled Caesarean when indicated, suggesting a need for focused public health interventions to increase the proportion of women achieving viral suppression during pregnancy and delivering via scheduled Caesarean when indicated