160 research outputs found
What Drives User Intention to Continue Using Conversational AI? How Functional and Emotional Values Influence Continuance Intention
The growing popularity of conversational AI has created numerous opportunities for individuals and businesses. However, traditional IS use theories fail to capture the empirical reality of conversational AI artifacts. Thus, we identify a need to evolve new theoretical perspectives that provide meaningful insights for scholars and practitioners. Thus far, researchers generally agree that conversational AI generates two forms of consumer values—functional and emotional—but they have primarily focused on transient emotional values. In this study, we investigate the impact of functional values (i.e., perceived usefulness) and enduring or sustainable emotional values (i.e., emotional attachment) on users’ intention to continue using conversational AI. We evaluated our research question by drawing on the lens of attachment theory, theory of consumption values, and agentic IS literature. We conducted an online survey with 288 participants. The results show that both functional and emotional values are important for continuance intention. However, functional values predicted continuance intentions better than emotional values. Additionally, we found a positive association between emotional and functional values. These findings contribute to the conversational AI use literature by merging previously disparate literature streams to concomitantly examine the impact of functional and emotional values on user continuance intentions
Evaluating alternative medicines for hypertension using Ghana’s Traditional and Alternative Medicine Practice Act: Standards of Safety and Legitimacy - a comprehensive policy analysis using implementation science frameworks
This comprehensive analysis employs implementation science frameworks to evaluate gaps in Ghana’s Traditional and Alternative Medicine Practice Act 575 concerning clinical efficacy evidence standards for integration, compared to global benchmarks and stakeholder perspectives. A systematic policy analysis combining the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), Exploration-Preparation-Implementation-Sustainment (EPIS) frameworks, and SEIPS-CRuPAC approach was conducted. Data sources included recent peer-reviewed literature (2020-2024), policy documents, stakeholder reports, and implementation assessments through systematic database searches and stakeholder analysis. Act 575 demonstrates comprehensive safety regulatory frameworks but significant gaps in mandated clinical efficacy evaluation requirements. Recent stakeholder studies (2021-2024) reveal persistent barriers including regulatory costs (GHC 60 vs GHC 20 for comparable treatments), limited approved traditional medicine products, and poor interprofessional collaboration. Implementation science analysis identifies critical gaps in outer context factors (policy support), inner context factors (organizational readiness), and bridging factors (evidence generation capacity). Ghana’s pioneering traditional medicine legislation requires strategic amendments incorporating evidence-based efficacy evaluation requirements, enhanced stakeholder engagement mechanisms, and strengthened implementation capacity to achieve WHO integration goals by 2030. Multi-level interventions including policy amendments mandating phased clinical trials, establishment of collaborative research platforms, dedicated funding mechanisms, and harmonization with international standards through implementation science-guided approaches.This study provides the first systematic implementation science-informed evaluation of African traditional medicine policy, offering replicable methodology for policy strengthening across similar contexts and direct relevance to Ghana’s 2024-2030 Strategic Plan for Traditional Medicine Development
A test of ecophysiological theories on tropical forest functional traits along a VPD gradient
Forest primary production is a crucial process for both ecosystem functioning and global carbon cycling. Primary production responds to both temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) through separate mechanisms. Vegetation models need to quantify both responses. However, due to their often high correlations, most observational data sets used to test models or theories hardly distinguish them. Here we evaluate ecophysiological theories on the effect of VPD using tree trait data collected along a VPD gradient in West Africa. Study sites spanned an annual rainfall range of 1200–2050 mm, with varying seasonality but minimal temperature variation. Most photosynthetic traits show trends consistent with predictions from optimality theory, including higher net CO2 assimilation rates and greater photosynthetic capacity at drier sites. These patterns were associated with greater deciduousness, increased respiration rates and enhanced water transport at drier sites. In contrast, hydraulic traits showed weaker consistency with theoretical predictions or global trends, particularly those based on the xylem efficiency-safety tradeoff. Our findings suggest that vegetation models should account for higher photosynthetic capacity in drier regions, but that further research is needed to incorporate hydraulic traits into models
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations.
Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.
Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning
Proactive prevention: Act now to disrupt the impending non-communicable disease crisis in low-burden populations
Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention efforts have traditionally targeted high-risk and high-burden populations. We propose an alteration in prevention efforts to also include emphasis and focus on low-risk populations, predominantly younger individuals and low-prevalence populations. We refer to this approach as “proactive prevention.” This emphasis is based on the priority to put in place policies, programs, and infrastructure that can disrupt the epidemiological transition to develop NCDs among these groups, thereby averting future NCD crises. Proactive prevention strategies can be classified, and their implementation prioritized, based on a 2-dimensional assessment: impact and feasibility. Thus, potential interventions can be categorized into a 2-by-2 matrix: high impact/high feasibility, high impact/ low feasibility, low impact/high feasibility, and low impact/low feasibility. We propose that high impact/high feasibility interventions are ready to be implemented (act), while high impact/low feasibility interventions require efforts to foster buy-in first. Low impact/high feasibility interventions need to be changed to improve their impact while low impact/low feasibility might be best re-designed in the context of limited resources. Using this framework, policy makers, public health experts, and other stakeholders can more effectively prioritize and leverage limited resources in an effort to slow or prevent the evolving global NCD crisis.Fil: Njuguna, Benson. Moi Teaching & Referral Hospital; KeniaFil: Fletcher, Sara L.. State University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Akwanalo, Constantine. Moi Teaching & Referral Hospital; KeniaFil: Asante, Kwaku Poku. Kintampo Health Research Centre; GhanaFil: Baumann, Ana. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Brown, Angela. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Davila Roman, Victor G.. Washington University in St. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Dickhaus, Julia. New York University Grossman School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Fort, Meredith. Colorado School Of Public Health; Estados UnidosFil: Iwelunmor, Juliet. Saint Louis University; Estados UnidosFil: Irazola, Vilma. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Mohan, Sailesh. Centre For Chronic Disease Control; India. Public Health Foundation Of India; IndiaFil: Mutabazi, Vincent. Regional Alliance For Sustainable Development; RuandaFil: Newsome, Brad. Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science; Estados UnidosFil: Ogedegbe, Olugbenga. New York University Grossman School of Medicine; Estados UnidosFil: Pastakia, Sonak D.. Purdue University College Of Pharmacy; Estados UnidosFil: Peprah, Emmanuel K.. University of New York; Estados UnidosFil: Plange Rhule, Jacob. Ghana College Of Physicians And Surgeons; GhanaFil: Roth, Gregory. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Shrestha, Archana. Kathmandu University School Of Medical Sciences; NepalFil: Watkins, David A.. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Vedanthan, Rajesh. New York University Grossman School of Medicine; Estados Unido
Pilot implementation of community health advocacy teams to improve the effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide net distribution through both campaigns and continuous channels in Ghana: a qualitative study of opportunities and barriers to implementation
IntroductionIn Ghana, the National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) distributes long-lasting insecticide net (LLIN) to households for free through the periodic point mass distribution (PMD) campaign and continuous distribution to populations most vulnerable to malaria. It is known that the existence of effective and functional community-based groups could influence positive behaviours regarding health interventions promoted through health campaigns. However, there is no evidence of functional community-based groups that aim to improve the effectiveness of LLIN distribution campaigns by transitioning into primary healthcare delivery. This study aimed to explore the opportunities and barriers to the pilot implementation of co-created community health advocacy teams (CHATs) to improve the effectiveness of LLIN distribution through both campaigns and continuous channels in Ghana.MethodsA qualitative research approach was used among 43 CHAT members across six communities in the Eastern and Volta regions of Ghana. The CHAT constitutes significant community actors whose roles are centred on key elements of community/social mobilisation and capacity building, all nested in social and behaviour change communication (SBCC) strategies. The CHATs were pilot implemented in all study communities for 4 months after which we identified opportunities and barriers during implementation. CHAT members participated in six focus group discussions which were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed thematically using the NVivo 13.ResultsCHATs were instrumental in sensitising community members through SBCC strategies. Moreover, there were changes in the behaviour of community members who were receptive towards and participated in CHAT activities. Community members were accurately informed about malaria (e.g., causes and preventive measures). However, the CHAT experienced barriers during implementation, including a lack of financial support to aid in transportation, organisation of meetings, and outreach activities. Additionally, the level of participation by CHAT members in activities and the medium of communication among members were key areas of concern.ConclusionThe CHATs would be instrumental in promoting LLINs' use during and after PMD campaigns through community outreaches. It is therefore necessary to provide resources to support their operations and a good network to address communication barriers. Finally, continuous capacity strengthening of CHAT members by the NMCP is important
Effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) in Ghana.
INTRODUCTION: Ghana adopted the revised WHO recommendation on intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) in 2012. This study has assessed the effectiveness and safety of this policy in Ghana. METHODS: A total of 1926 pregnant women enrolled at antenatal care (ANC) clinics were assessed for birth outcomes at delivery, and placental histology results for malaria infection were obtained from 1642 participants. Association of reduced placental or peripheral malaria, anaemia and low birth weight (LBW) in women who received ≥4 IPTp-SP doses compared with 3 or ≤2 doses was determined by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among the 1926 participants, 5.3% (103), 19.2% (369), 33.2% (640) and 42.3% (817) of women had received ≤1, 2, 3 or ≥4 doses, respectively. There was no difference in risk of active placental malaria (PM) infection in women who received 3 doses compared with ≥4 doses (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.00, 95% CI 0.47 to 2.14). The risk of overall PM infection was 1.63 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.48) in 2 dose group and 1.06 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.57) in 3 dose group compared with ≥4 dose group. The risk of LBW was 1.55 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.47) and 1.06 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.65) for 2 and 3 dose groups, respectively, compared with the ≥4 dose group. Jaundice in babies was present in 0.16%, and 0% for women who received ≥4 doses of SP. CONCLUSION: There was no difference in the risk of PM, LBW or maternal anaemia among women receiving 3 doses compared with ≥4 doses. Receiving ≥3 IPTp-SP doses during pregnancy was associated with a lower risk of overall PM infection compared with 2 doses. As there are no safety concerns, monthly administration of IPTp-SP offers a more practical opportunity for pregnant women to receive ≥3 doses during pregnancy
From cassava to gari: Mapping of quality characteristics and end-user preferences in Cameroon and Nigeria
User's preferences of cassava and cassava products along the value chain are supported by specific root quality characteristics that can be linked to root traits. Therefore, providing an evidence base of user preferred characteristics along the value chain, can help in the functional choice of cassava varieties. In this respect, the present paper presents the results from focus group discussions and individual interviews on user preferred quality characteristics of raw cassava roots and the derived product, gari, ‐ one of the major cassava products in Sub Saharan Africa ‐ in major production and consumption areas of Cameroon and Nigeria. Choice of cassava varieties for farming is mainly determined by the multiple end‐uses of the roots, their agricultural yield and the processing determinants of roots that support their major high‐quality characteristics: size, density, low water content, maturity, colour and safety. Processing of cassava roots into gari goes through different technological variants leading to a gari whose high‐quality characteristics are: dryness, colour, shiny/attractive appearance, uniform granules and taste. Eba, the major consumption form of gari in Cameroon and Nigeria is mainly characterized by its textural properties: smoothness, firmness, stickiness, elasticity, mouldability. Recommendations are made, suggesting that breeding will have to start evaluating cassava clones for brightness/shininess, as well as textural properties such as mouldability and elasticity of cassava food products, for the purpose of supporting decision‐making by breeders and the development of high‐throughput selection methods of cassava varieties. Women are identified as important beneficiaries of such initiatives giving their disadvantaged position and their prominent role in cassava processing and marketing of gari
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Background:
Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.
Methods:
GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.
Findings:
The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older.
Interpretation:
Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public
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