Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates. JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53factor model, forecasting, Large Data Sets, monetary policy, news, Real Time Data

Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates

Nominal Income Targeting with the Monetary Base as Instrument: An Evaluation of McCallum\u27s Rule

In this paper, we explore McCallum\u27s monetary base instrument rule in the context of several models. The first section uses two models, previously utilized by McCallum, to demonstrate the general properties of his rule and to update through 1992 the empirical support for the rule. The second section uses models that allow a significant role for interest rates in transmitting the effects of changes in the monetary base to aggregate demand. The analysis in these two sections makes two main points: (1) Shifts. or instabilities, in the structural relationship between the base and nominal GNP in the 1980s and 1990s raise questions about the efficacy of the proposed rule; and (2) The ability of McCallum\u27s base instrument rule to control nominal output depends on the response pattern of the target variable, nominal output, to changes in the base. In the sequence of models presented, we lay out these dynamic linkages in successively more detail and examine their ·implications for nominal income targeting

Temporal Trends in Incidence, Sepsis-Related Mortality, and Hospital-Based Acute Care After Sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: A growing number of patients survive sepsis hospitalizations each year and are at high risk for readmission. However, little is known about temporal trends in hospital-based acute care (emergency department treat-and-release visits and hospital readmission) after sepsis. Our primary objective was to measure temporal trends in sepsis survivorship and hospital-based acute care use in sepsis survivors. In addition, because readmissions after pneumonia are subject to penalty under the national readmission reduction program, we examined whether readmission rates declined after sepsis hospitalizations related to pneumonia. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective, observational cohort study conducted within an academic healthcare system from 2010 to 2015. PATIENTS: We used three validated, claims-based approaches to identify 17,256 sepsis or severe sepsis hospitalizations to examine trends in hospital-based acute care after sepsis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From 2010 to 2015, sepsis as a proportion of medical and surgical admissions increased from 3.9% to 9.4%, whereas in-hospital mortality rate for sepsis hospitalizations declined from 24.1% to 14.8%. As a result, the proportion of medical and surgical discharges at-risk for hospital readmission after sepsis increased from 2.7% to 7.8%. Over 6 years, 30-day hospital readmission rates declined modestly, from 26.4% in 2010 to 23.1% in 2015, driven largely by a decline in readmission rates among survivors of nonsevere sepsis, and nonpneumonia sepsis specifically, as the readmission rate of severe sepsis survivors was stable. The modest decline in 30-day readmission rates was offset by an increase in emergency department treat-and-release visits, from 2.8% in 2010 to a peak of 5.4% in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Owing to increasing incidence and declining mortality, the number of sepsis survivors at risk for hospital readmission rose significantly between 2010 and 2015. The 30-day hospital readmission rates for sepsis declined modestly but were offset by a rise in emergency department treat-and-release visits

Processing of MEMPHIS millimeter wave multi-baseline InSAR data

This paper presents a processing method for multi-baseline interferometric data acquired with the MEMPHIS airborne sensor. The processing method ingests the SAR raw data from each receiver and extends up to the generation of digital elevation models (DEMs). Critical steps include the correction of the azimuth phase undulations, the multi- baseline processing and the phase-to-DEM conversion. Methods for resolving the various hurdles were adapted to the MEMPHIS sensor and are presented here. The results obtained for a data take over a test site near Zurich, Switzerland are shown; these results are in a good agreement with comparable LIDAR products

The GALEX Ultraviolet Atlas of Nearby Galaxies

We present images, integrated photometry, and surface-brightness and color profiles for a total of 1034 nearby galaxies recently observed by the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) satellite in its far-ultraviolet (FUV; λ_(eff) = 1516 Å) and near-ultraviolet (NUV; λ_(eff) = 2267 Å) bands. Our catalog of objects is derived primarily from the GALEX Nearby Galaxies Survey (NGS) supplemented by galaxies larger than 1' in diameter serendipitously found in these fields and in other GALEX exposures of similar of greater depth. The sample analyzed here adequately describes the distribution and full range of properties (luminosity, color, star formation rate [SFR]) of galaxies in the local universe. From the surface brightness profiles obtained we have computed asymptotic magnitudes, colors, and luminosities, along with the concentration indices C31 and C42. We have also morphologically classified the UV surface brightness profiles according to their shape. This data set has been complemented with archival optical, near-infrared, and far-infrared fluxes and colors. We find that the integrated (FUV − K) color provides robust discrimination between elliptical and spiral/irregular galaxies and also among spiral galaxies of different subtypes. Elliptical galaxies with brighter K-band luminosities (i.e., more massive) are redder in (NUV − K) color but bluer in (FUV − NUV) (a color sensitive to the presence of a strong UV upturn) than less massive ellipticals. In the case of the spiral/irregular galaxies our analysis shows the presence of a relatively tight correlation between the (FUV − NUV) color (or, equivalently, the slope of the UV spectrum, β) and the total infrared-to-UV ratio. The correlation found between (FUV − NUV) color and K-band luminosity (with lower luminosity objects being bluer than more luminous ones) can be explained as due to an increase in the dust content with galaxy luminosity. The images in this Atlas along with the profiles and integrated properties are publicly available through a dedicated Web page

Recent star formation in nearby galaxies from GALEX imaging:M101 and M51

The GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer) Nearby Galaxies Survey is providing deep far-UV and near-UV imaging for a representative sample of galaxies in the local universe. We present early results for M51 and M101, from GALEX UV imaging and SDSS optical data in five bands. The multi-band photometry of compact stellar complexes in M101 is compared to population synthesis models, to derive ages, reddening, reddening-corrected luminosities and current/initial masses. The GALEX UV photometry provides a complete census of young compact complexes on a approximately 160pc scale. A galactocentric gradient of the far-UV - near-UV color indicates younger stellar populations towards the outer parts of the galaxy disks, the effect being more pronounced in M101 than in M51.Comment: This paper will be published as part of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) Astrophysical Journal Letters Special Issue. Full paper available from http://dolomiti.pha.jhu.edu . Links to full set of papers will be available at http://www.galex.caltech.edu/PUBLICATIONS/ after November 22, 200

The Star Formation Rate Function of the Local Universe

We have derived the bivariate luminosity function for the far ultraviolet (1530Angstroms) and far infrared (60 microns). We used matched GALEX and IRAS data, and redshifts from NED and PSC-z. We have derived a total star formation luminosity function phi(L_{tot}), with L_{tot} = L_{FUV}+L_{FIR}. Using these, we determined the cosmic ``star formation rate'' function and density for the local universe. The total SFR function is fit very well by a log-normal distribution over five decades of luminosity. We find that the bivariate luminosity function phi(L_{FUV},L_{FIR}) shows a bimodal behavior, with L_{FIR} tracking L_{FUV} for L_{TOT}< 10^10 L_sun, and L_{FUV} saturating at 10^10 L_sun, while L_{TOT} L_{FIR} for higher luminosities. We also calculate the SFR density and compare it to other measurements.Comment: This paper will be published as part of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) Astrophysical Journal Letters Special Issue. Links to the full set of papers will be available at http:/www.galex.caltech.edu/PUBLICATIONS/ after November 22, 200