Effects of Surrounding Land Use on Playa Inundation Following Intense Rainfall

Many isolated wetlands that fill by rainfall, such as playas, have been affected by sedimentation in heavily modified agricultural landscapes. Conservation plantings and buffers reduce sedimentation in wetlands but also may reduce the frequency of inundation. We studied the effects of surrounding landcover on the responses of playas in southwestern Nebraska to heavy rain events using aerial photography, ground surveys, and GIS landscape analyses. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we found that playas in rangeland were more likely to become inundated than playas in cropland, and both were more likely to become inundated than playas in fields enrolled in USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), typified by tall, dense grasses. Inundation was also positively related to rainfall amount and playa size. Our results highlight the significance of maintaining playas in native prairie and underscore the importance of planting and managing appropriate mixes of native shortgrass and/or mixed-grass prairie species surrounding playas to mimic the vegetative structure of native prairie. In light of historic wetland losses, a reduction in the probability of flooding for individual playas in CRP must be weighed against the protection from sedimentation that buffers afford wetlands in cropland and other beneficial influences of CRP in the landscape

Causal mechanisms for negative impacts of energy development inform management triggers for sagebrush birds

Abstract Estimated population trends can identify declining species to focus biological conservation, but monitoring may fail to illuminate causes of population change and strategies for reversing declines. Monitoring programs can relate trends with environmental attributes to test causal hypotheses, but typical analytical approaches do not explicitly support causal inference, diluting available data for informing conservation. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) extended Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions with a quasi‐experimental sampling design over a 10‐year period (2010–2019) to evaluate the impacts of oil and gas development on sagebrush birds within the Atlantic Rim Natural Gas Field Development Project in southern Wyoming. We analyzed resulting data using a multiscale community occupancy model to estimate trends in species occupancy and richness relevant to management triggers. Additionally, we employed path analysis to evaluate mechanisms underlying observed trends to inform potential management responses. Fine‐scale occupancy for sage thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus) declined within the high‐development stratum at a rate sufficient to meet an a priori management trigger established by the BLM. Two additional sagebrush‐associated species, Brewer's (Spizella breweri) and sagebrush sparrow (Artemisiospiza nevadensis), exhibited negative development relationships with trend, as did overall species richness, and richness of grassland, sagebrush, and generalist guilds. We identified well pad density and invasive plants associated with energy development as causal factors contributing to these negative development impacts. We demonstrate an analytical approach for both estimating occupancy trends and identifying underlying causes to inform conservation action. Reducing the development footprint, including well pad density and associated invasive plants, could help reduce or limit impacts on birds within this landscape

Multiscale occupancy of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken: the role of private lands in conservation of an imperiled bird

Grasslands are one of the most imperiled ecosystems globally, and the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is an iconic grassland-obligate species with high conservation priority in the USA. Lesser Prairie-Chicken conservation is compounded by its requirement for a spatial hierarchy of heterogeneous habitats, coupled with nearly all (> 95%) of its range being privately owned. The U.S. Department of Agriculture currently offers technical and financial resources that facilitate prairie restoration, e.g., Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), and improve habitat quality and ecosystem services, e.g., Environmental Quality Improvement Program, on private lands. We modeled Lesser Prairie-Chicken occupancy at two scales relative to covariates that described landscape composition and configuration, anthropogenic development, drought-related climatic conditions, and conservation efforts from 2012 to 2016. Large-scale (225 km²) occupancy was most associated with shrubland, grassland patch size, and CRP range-wide. Patterns of small-scale (56.25 km²) occupancy varied regionally, but key covariates included shrubland, grassland, and CRP landcover. These covariate relationships may be useful for identifying conservation practices at different spatial scales and habitat factors that influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken distributions ecoregionally. Notably, CRP-enrolled lands appear to serve as a surrogate for prairie habitat in some ecoregions, especially in conjunction with larger extant patches of native habitat. Although not as influential as CRP at large scales, every 2.25 km² of prescribed grazing increased the odds of site occupancy by 11%. In addition to supported covariates, we found that for every 0.56 km² of industrial development at small scales and 2.25 km² of woodland cover (10%-canopy) at large scales, odds of occupancy decreased by 22% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that increased amounts of native grassland and shrubland, and in particular higher levels of CRP enrollment could expand LEPC distribution by as much as 17% (1418-1744 km²). Moreover, our findings illustrate the potential for federal conservation policies to benefit the distribution of an imperiled species

Integrating counts from rigorous surveys and participatory science to better understand spatiotemporal variation in population processes

Abstract Knowledge of variation in population processes (e.g. population growth) across broad spatiotemporal scales is fundamental to population ecology and critical for conservation decision‐making. Count data from rigorous surveys (e.g. surveys with probabilistic sampling design and distance sampling information) can inform population processes but are often limited in space and time. Participatory science data cover broader spatiotemporal extents but are prone to bias due to limited to no sampling design and lack of distance sampling information, hindering their capability of informing population processes. Here, we developed an integrated dynamic N‐mixture model that jointly analyses rigorous survey and participatory science data to inform population growth at broad spatiotemporal extents. The model contains a flexible scaling parameter that allows fixed and random effects to account for biases and errors in participatory science data. We conducted simulations to evaluate the inference performance of this model across a broad range of spatial and temporal overlap between rigorous survey and participatory science data. We also conducted a case study of Baird's Sparrow (Centronyx bairdii), a species of conservation concern, to illustrate the application of the integrated model with rigorous survey data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions programme and participatory science North American Breeding Bird Survey and eBird data. Simulations showed that the integrated model improved precision without biasing parameter estimates, in comparison with a model informed by rigorous survey data alone. The case study further demonstrated the utility of the integrated model for quantifying range‐wide, long‐term population processes and environmental drivers despite limited spatiotemporal extent of rigorous survey data. In particular, we found that population growth rate peaked under medium temperature, which were only apparent in the integrated model. The integrated model developed in this study is useful for understanding wildlife population processes at broad spatiotemporal scales with count data. The flexible structure of this model, in particular the scaling parameter, makes it highly adaptable to a broad range of ecological systems and survey procedures. These properties make this modelling approach highly relevant for both population ecology and conservation practice

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

<div><p>Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer’s sparrow (<i>Spizella breweri</i>) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer’s sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.</p></div

Landscape relationships for the Brewer’s sparrow in the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region, 2011.

<p>(A) Big sagebrush land cover. (B) Mountain big sagebrush land cover. The bold trend lines are model averaged estimates of large-scale occupancy (ψ) for Primary Sampling Units (1-km² grid cells) at the mean values of the other covariates in the model and the bounding lines are unconditional 90% confidence intervals.</p

The distribution of the Brewer’s sparrow from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions Program, 2011.

<p>The color ramp for the sampling frame of 1-km² grid cells represent model averaged predictions of large-scale occupancy (ψ) for the most recent distribution in 2011. The inset shows the Brewer’s sparrow occupancy distribution within the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region at greater resolution.</p

The estimated population density of the Brewer’s sparrow at multiple spatial scales, 2010–2015.

<p>(A) U.S. Forest Service, Thunder Basin National Grassland, Wyoming. (B) U.S. Bureau of Land Management lands in the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). (C) Wyoming portion of BCR 17. (D) Entire BCR 17. The filled symbols are estimates of population density (km^-2), the error bars are 90% confidence intervals and the vertical dashed arrow represents the timing of wildland fires in the Thunder Basin National Grassland.</p

The spatial extent of the 2015 Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions Program.

<p>The hatched region represents the area of inference and the round symbols represent the locations of Primary Sampling Units (1-km² grid cells) within the 9) Great Basin, 10) Northern Rockies, 11) Prairie Potholes, 16) Southern Rockies, 17) Badlands and Prairies, 18) Shortgrass Prairie, 19) Central Mixed-grass Prairie and 34) Sierra Madre Occidental Bird Conservation Regions.</p

Local habitat relationships for the Brewer’s sparrow in the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region, 2010–2011.

<p>(A) Bare ground cover. (B) Big sagebrush shrub cover. (C) Non-sagebrush shrub cover. (D) Woodland canopy cover. The bold trend lines are model averaged estimates of small-scale occupancy (θ) for Secondary Sampling Units (4.9-ha point count plots) at the mean values of the other covariates in the model and the bounding lines are unconditional 90% confidence intervals.</p