Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?

This paper presents empirical evidence on the extent to which FTAs are gcontagioush, using empirical techniques inspired by the study of contagion in exchange rate crises. Applying a series of different econometric techniques, it tests the null hypothesis that the signing of an FTA between one nationfs trade partners has no affect on the probability of the nation signing a new FTA. The hypothesis is tested against other political, economical and geographical determinants of the FTA formation previously stated in the literature, finding evidence that the contagion phenomenon is present in different specifications and samples.Contagion Effect, Free Trade Agreements and International Trade

Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?

This paper presents empirical evidence on the extent to which FTAs are "contagious", using empirical techniques inspired by the study of contagion in exchange rate crises. Applying a series of different econometric techniques, it tests the null hypothesis that the signing of an FTA between one nation's trade partners has no affect on the probability of the nation signing a new FTA. The hypothesis is tested against other political, economical and geographical determinants of the FTA formation previously stated in the literature, finding evidence that the contagion phenomenon is present in different specifications and samples.Contagion Effect, Free Trade Agreements and International Trade

La deuda pública en el mundo

(Disponible en idioma inglés) La base de datos se puede acceder en: http://www. iadb. org/res/pub_desc. cfm?pub_id=DBA-005

A bayesian spatial probit estimation of free trade agreement contagion

This paper analyzes the spatial interdependence of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in a cross-section framework using the Contagion Index proposed by Baldwin and Jaimovich (2010). A Bayesian heteroskedastic probit model is estimated, where a spatial lag is built based on the Contagion Index, finding evidence of interdependence related with a domino-like effect. I compare the results with simple probit estimations and other spatial specifications

Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?

Existe una vasta literatura que muestra que la política fiscal en países industrializados es acíclica o contracíclica y procíclica en países emergentes. Mucha de esta literatura se basa en regresiones MCO que se enfocan en la correlación entre una variable fiscal (usualmente el balance presupuestario o crecimiento del gasto) ya sea crecimiento del PIB o alguna medida de la brecha del producto. Este paper argumenta que tal metodología no permite la identificación del efecto del ciclo real en la política fiscal y por lo tanto no se puede usar para estimar funciones de reacción de política. El paper propone un nuevo instrumento para el crecimiento del PIB y muestra que una vez que éste esté debidamente instrumentado, la prociclicidad tiende a desaparecer.

Who Is Claiming For Fixed-Term Contracts?

The present study aims to contribute to the debate concerning the effects on economic performance and the structure of the labor market of regulations that combine high Employment Protection Legislations (EPL) with consent for the use of fixed-term contracts (FTC). Using a Rajan and Zingales (1998) difference-in-difference empirical technique in a panel of 45 countries, we explore the response of industries that differ in their "intrinsic need" of worker turnover when they face different levels of EPL and how the possibility of using FTC might change the outcome. Our approach suggests an original demand side explanation of the claiming of FTC.Employment protection legislation, labor turnover, fixed term contracts

The Unexplained Part of Public Debt

This paper shows that budget deficits account for a relatively small fraction of debt growth and that stock-flow reconciliation, which is often considered a residual entity, is one of the key determinants of debt dynamics. After having explained the importance of the stock-flow reconciliation, the paper shows that this residual entity can be partly explained by contingent liabilities and balancesheet effects.

Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?

This paper presents a new model of the domino effect which is used to generate an empirical index of how “contagious” FTAs are with respect to third nations. We test our contagion hypothesis together with alternative specifications of interdependence and other political, economical and geographical determinants of FTA formation. Our main finding is that contagion is present in our data and is robust to various econometric specifications and samples.

Macrostructure and microstructure: Evidence from overlapping village networks in The Gambia

Using a unique dataset collected in 60 Gambian villages, I study six social and economic networks: (i) land exchange, (ii) labor exchange, (iii) tool and fertilizer exchange, (iv) credit exchange, (v) matrimonial relationships and (vi) kinship relationships. A variety of measures gleaned from the Social Network Analysis (SNA) literature are used to study how features of the networks at different levels of disaggregation are related to various aspects of economic development. In particular, I focus on the role of ethnic fragmentation and income inequality. Analyzing the network macrostructure I find that village-level income inequality plays a role in increasing interactions, while a measure of ethnic fragmentation is only related to land exchange. At a more disaggregated level, household's centrality seems to be determined by traditional roles and other characteristics, including ethnicity and, to a lesser extent, relative income in the village. At the dyadic level, traditional roles, family ties and dierences in endowments are better predictors of link formation than income and ethnicity

Missing links, missing markets: Evidence of the transformation process in the economic networks of Gambian villages

A unique dataset of social and economic networks collected in 60 rural Gambian villages is used to study the ways in which households with links outside the village (that are considered as a proxy for market connections) behave in the locally available exchange networks for land, labor, input and credit. Using measures gleaned from the social network analysis literature, the econometric results at both household and link (dyadic) level provide evidence of: (i) substitutability between internal and external links, and (ii) substitutability between internal reciprocation and external links. These findings provide support for the transformation process of primitive economies described in a long tradition of anthropological work as well as recent theoretical models