Pattern formation in inclined layer convection

We report experiments on thermally driven convection in an inclined layer of large aspect ratio in a fluid of Prandtl number $\sigma \approx 1$. We observed a number of new nonlinear, mostly spatio-temporally chaotic, states. At small angles of inclination we found longitudinal rolls, subharmonic oscillations, Busse oscillations, undulation chaos, and crawling rolls. At larger angles, in the vicinity of the transition from buoyancy- to shear-driven instability, we observed drifting transverse rolls, localized bursts, and drifting bimodals. For angles past vertical, when heated from above, we found drifting transverse rolls and switching diamond panes.Comment: For MPEG movies, see http://milou.msc.cornell.edu/ILCmovie

Dynamic model for failures in biological systems

A dynamic model for failures in biological organisms is proposed and studied both analytically and numerically. Each cell in the organism becomes dead under sufficiently strong stress, and is then allowed to be healed with some probability. It is found that unlike the case of no healing, the organism in general does not completely break down even in the presence of noise. Revealed is the characteristic time evolution that the system tends to resist the stress longer than the system without healing, followed by sudden breakdown with some fraction of cells surviving. When the noise is weak, the critical stress beyond which the system breaks down increases rapidly as the healing parameter is raised from zero, indicative of the importance of healing in biological systems.Comment: To appear in Europhys. Let

Segregation by thermal diffusion in granular shear flows

Segregation by thermal diffusion of an intruder immersed in a sheared granular gas is analyzed from the (inelastic) Boltzmann equation. Segregation is induced by the presence of a temperature gradient orthogonal to the shear flow plane and parallel to gravity. We show that, like in analogous systems without shear, the segregation criterion yields a transition between upwards segregation and downwards segregation. The form of the phase diagrams is illustrated in detail showing that they depend sensitively on the value of gravity relative to the thermal gradient. Two specific situations are considered: i) absence of gravity, and ii) homogeneous temperature. We find that both mechanisms (upwards and downwards segregation) are stronger and more clearly separated when compared with segregation criteria in systems without shear.Comment: 8 figures. To appear in J. Stat. Mec

Production Systems Involving Stocker Cattle and Soft Red Winter Wheat

A three year study at the Livestock and Forestry Research Station near Batesville, Arkansas evaluated production systems involving stocker cattle and soft red winter wheat. Grazing of soft red winter wheat forage from October through February followed by harvesting wheat grain or grazing through April with stocker cattle offers an alternative to conventional farming. Soft red winter wheat, when planted by September 15, produces an ample supply of high-quality forage that supports rapid growth of stocker cattle during October through April. Net income from stocker cattle averaged over $100 per acre. A normal wheat grain crop can also be harvested. These alternative production systems could increase the agricultural income by over$75,000,000 per year if 750,000 acres of wheat are grazed

System and market failures: the unavailability of magnesium sulphate for the treatment of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Low cost and effective drugs, such as magnesium sulphate, need to be included in initiatives to improve access to essential medicines in Afric

Yellow fever in Asia - a risk analysis

Background There is concern about the risk of yellow fever (YF) establishment in Asia, owing to rising numbers of urban outbreaks in endemic countries and globalisation. Following an outbreak in Angola in 2016, YF cases were introduced into China. Prior to this, YF had never been recorded in Asia, despite climatic suitability and the presence of mosquitoes. An outbreak in Asia could result in widespread fatalities and huge economic impact. Therefore, quantifying the potential risk of YF outbreaks in Asia is a public health priority. Methods Using international flight data and YF incidence estimates from 2016, we quantified the risk of YF introduction via air travel into Asia. In locations with evidence of a competent mosquito population, the potential for autochthonous YF transmission was estimated using a temperature-dependent model of the reproduction number and a branching process model assuming a negative binomial distribution. Results In total, 25 cities across Asia were estimated to be at risk of receiving at least one YF viraemic traveller during 2016. At their average temperatures, we estimated the probability of autochthonous transmission to be <50% in all cities, which was primarily due to the limited number of estimated introductions that year. Conclusion Despite the rise in air travel, we found low support for travel patterns between YF endemic countries and Asia resulting in autochthonous transmission during 2016. This supports the historic absence of YF in Asia and suggests it could be due to a limited number of introductions in previous years. Future increases in travel volumes or YF incidence can increase the number of introductions and the risk of autochthonous transmission. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild infections and the challenges of YF surveillance, our model can be used to estimate the introduction and outbreak risk and can provide useful information to surveillance systems

A random fiber bundle with many discontinuities in the threshold distribution

We study the breakdown of a random fiber bundle model (RFBM) with $n$-discontinuities in the threshold distribution using the global load sharing scheme. In other words, $n+1$ different classes of fibers identified on the basis of their threshold strengths are mixed such that the strengths of the fibers in the $i-th$ class are uniformly distributed between the values $\sigma_{2i-2}$ and $\sigma_{2i-1}$ where $1 \leq i \leq n+1$. Moreover, there is a gap in the threshold distribution between $i-th$ and $i+1-th$ class. We show that although the critical stress depends on the parameter values of the system, the critical exponents are identical to that obtained in the recursive dynamics of a RFBM with a uniform distribution and global load sharing. The avalanche size distribution (ASD), on the other hand, shows a non-universal, non-power law behavior for smaller values of avalanche sizes which becomes prominent only when a critical distribution is approached. We establish that the behavior of the avalanche size distribution for an arbitrary $n$ is qualitatively similar to a RFBM with a single discontinuity in the threshold distribution ($n=1$), especially when the density and the range of threshold values of fibers belonging to strongest ($n+1$)-th class is kept identical in all the cases.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, Accepted in Phys. Rev.