A Generalization of the Calendar Time Portfolio Approach and the Performance of Private Investors

We present a regression-based generalization of the calendar time portfolio approach which allowsfor the inclusion of continuous and multivariate investor or firm characteristics in the analysis. Ourmethod is simple to apply and it ensures that the statistical results are heteroscedasticity consistentand robust to very general forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependence. Furthermore, ourregression-based technique also remedies several well-known weaknesses of the traditional calendartime portfolio approach. By considering a new, unique dataset on more than 40,000 Europeanprivate investors, we illustrate empirically that erroneously ignoring cross-sectional dependenceinherent in microeconometric panel data can lead to severely biased statistical results. Moreoverwe use our method to validate some of the most popular hypotheses on the performance of privateinvestors.Performance measurement, Robust statistical inference, Cross-sectional dependence

Das Anlageverhalten von Privatinvestoren: Erste Ergebnisse eines schweizerischen Panels

Das Anlageverhalten von Privatinvestoren unterscheidet sich teilweise markant von Voraussagen, die aufgrund von Modellen der Portfolioselektion getroffen werden können. So sind zum Beispiel Portfolios häufig nicht breit diversifiziert, weder bezüglich der Anzahl Titel noch bezüglich der geographischen Streuung der Anlagen. Gleichzeitig gibt es eine ganze Reihe demographischer Faktoren (zB. Geschlecht, Alter, Nationalität) die das Investorenverhalten möglicherweise beeinflussen, über die die finanzökonomische Literatur jedoch kaum Voraussagen erlaubt. Die verhaltensorientierte Finanzökonomie (behavioral finance) hat in den letzten Jahren versucht, diese Lücke zu schliessen. Nebst theoretischen Arbeiten sind empirische Untersuchungen entstanden, die jedoch häufig auf Umfragen oder Experimenten basieren. Direkte Untersuchungen des Anlageverhaltens aufgrund tatsächlicher Vermögensdaten gab es bisher wenige ..

A Generalization of the Calendar Time Portfolio Approach and the Performance of Private Investors

We present a regression-based generalization of the calendar time portfolio approach which allowsfor the inclusion of continuous and multivariate investor or firm characteristics in the analysis. Ourmethod is simple to apply and it ensures that the statistical results are heteroscedasticity consistentand robust to very general forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependence. Furthermore, ourregression-based technique also remedies several well-known weaknesses of the traditional calendartime portfolio approach. By considering a new, unique dataset on more than 40,000 Europeanprivate investors, we illustrate empirically that erroneously ignoring cross-sectional dependenceinherent in microeconometric panel data can lead to severely biased statistical results. Moreoverwe use our method to validate some of the most popular hypotheses on the performance of privateinvestors

How Much of the Diversification Discount Can be Explained by Poor Corporate Governance?

We investigate whether the diversification discount is simply a proxy for poor corporate governance. We find that the negative value impact of diversification is amplified by adverse governance variables such as low CEO ownership, low board independence, and board classification, and that approximately 25% to 30% of the diversification discount can be attributed to suboptimal governance choices by conglomerate firms. Our methodology includes a dynamic panel GMM estimator that accounts for the endogeneity of the diversification decision and corporate governance, plus an event study analysis of diversifying mergers. Even after controlling for governance, the diversification discount remains negative and significant

How Much of the Diversification Discount Can be Explained by Poor Corporate Governance?

We investigate whether the diversification discount is simply a proxy for poor corporate governance. We find that the negative value impact of diversification is amplified by adverse governance variables such as low CEO ownership, low board independence, and board classification, and that approximately 25% to 30% of the diversification discount can be attributed to suboptimal governance choices by conglomerate firms. Our methodology includes a dynamic panel GMM estimator that accounts for the endogeneity of the diversification decision and corporate governance, plus an event study analysis of diversifying mergers. Even after controlling for governance, the diversification discount remains negative and significant

The Coevolution of Finance and Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies

The transition from communism to capitalism was necessarily accompanied by a sudden and abrupt increase in the financialization of society. This increase occurred in an environment that, even now, still has little experience with or expertise in financialization. Given that financialization occurred simultaneously with the growth and evolution of other political and economic institutions, the question arises: What was the effect on these other nascent institutions like property rights? This article empirically analyzes the relationship between financialization and property rights in transition countries. Using a unique monthly database of twenty transition countries over a period from 1989 to 2012, this article finds that the influence of financialization depends on which definition of “financialization” is used. In particular, increases in basic financial intermediation improved property rights. However, higher-order “financialization,” proxied here by the size of capital markets and the wages in the financial sector, appeared to have a negative impact on the development of broad-based property rights in transition

Space and Time in Macroeconomic Panel Data: Young Workers and State-Level Unemployment Revisited

A provocative paper by Shimer (2001) finds that state-level youth shares and unemployment rates are negatively correlated, in contrast to conventional assumptions about demographic effects on labor markets. This paper updates Shimer's regressions and shows that this surprising correlation essentially disappears when the end of the sample period is extended from 1996 to 2005. This shift does not occur because of a change in the underlying economy during the past decade. Rather, the presence of a cross-sectional (that is, spatial) correlation in the state-level data sharply reduces the precision of the earlier estimates, so that the true standard errors are several times larger than those originally reported. Using a longer sample period and some controls for spatial correlation in the regression, point estimates for the youth-share effect on unemployment are positive and close to what a conventional model would imply. Unfortunately, the standard errors remain very large. The difficulty of obtaining precise estimates with these data illustrates a potential pitfall in the use of regional panel data for macroeconomic analysis

On the Effects of Suggested Prices in Gasoline Markets

This article analyzes the role of suggested prices in the Dutch retail market for gasoline. Suggested prices are announced by large oil companies with the suggestion that retailers follow them. There are at least two competing rationales for the existence of suggested prices: they may either help retailers translate changes in international gasoline spot market prices into retail prices, or they may coordinate retail prices. We show that there is, next to the international spot market prices, additional information in suggested prices that explains retail prices. Therefore, we conclude that suggested prices help to coordinate retail prices

A New Empirical Approach to Explain the Stock Market Yield: A Combination of Dynamic Panel Estimation and Factor Analysis

This paper presents an empirical approach that combines competing paradigms of modeling in empirical capital market research. The approach simultaneously estimates the explanatory power of fundamentals, expectations, and historic yield patterns, making it possible to test the extent to which the efficient market hypothesis, fundamental data analysis, and behavioral finance contribute to explaining stock market yield. The core of the approach is a dynamic panel model (Arellano-Bond estimator with an MA restriction of the residuals), complemented with an upstream factor analysis to reduce multicollinearity. Due to the complexity of the data set, a great many parameters that influence the yield can be determined. Highly significant parameter estimates are possible even though the information in the data set is interdependent. For the German stock market (the 160 companies listed in DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX), the quarterly yield is analyzed for the period between 2004 and 2009. The model has high explanatory power for the entire observation period, even in light of the fact that the period includes the financial crisis of 2008