Why are Market Economies Politically Stable? A Theory of Capitalist Cohesion

The present paper documents that political stability is positively associated with the extent of domestic trade. In explaining this regularity, we provide a model where political cohesion is linked to the emergence of a fully functioning market economy. Without market exchange, the welfare of inherently selfish individuals will be mutually independent. As a result, political negotiations, echoing the preferences of the citizens of society, will be dog-eat-dog in nature. Whoever has greater bargaining power will be willing to make decisions that enhance the productivity of his supporters at the expense of other groups in society. If the gains from specialization become sufficiently large, however, a market economy will emerge. From being essentially non-cooperative under self-sufficiency, the political decision making process becomes cooperative in the market economy, as the welfare of individuals will be mutually interdependent due to the exchange of goods

Dual Economies and International Total Factory Productivity Differences

This paper shows that a significant part of measured total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non- agriculture is important. We provide a framework which maps the composition of the economy to measured aggregate TFP. A decomposition analysis suggests that as much as 85 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises indicate that recent findings of the conduciveness of good institutions, and, to some extent trade, on levels of TFP, may be thus explained.Development Accounting, Dual Economy, Structural Change, Total Factor Productivity, Institutions, Geography, Multisector Growth Models

The Return to Foreign Aid

This paper investigates the marginal productivity of investment in the world’s poorest economies. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid as well as by domestic resource mobilization, using crosscountry aggregate data. In practice the return on both investment categories can be expected to vary considerably across countries and time. As a consequence we develop a correlated random coefficients approach to the issue at hand, which allows us to estimate the average aggregate rate of return on “aid investments” and “domestic investments”. Across a wide array of estimators our principal finding is remarkably robust; the average aggregate gross return on “aid investments” falls in a 20-30 percent range, roughly the same as the return on investments funded by other sources than aid. This finding is well in accord with micro estimates of the economic return to aid.productivity, foreign aid, random coefficients, panel data

Dual Economies and International Total Factor Productivity Differences.

This paper argues that a significant part of measured TFP differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non-agriculture seems to be important. We provide a theory which links the institutional framework to the long-run composition of the economy, and thereby to measured TFP and income per worker. A decomposition analysis suggests that between 30 and 50 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises suggest that recent findings of a conducive effect from institutions, and to some extent, geography, on long-run prosperity and TFP, may be thus explained.dual economy; structural change; total factor productivity; institutions; geography

The Physiological Foundations of the Wealth of Nations

Evidence from economics, anthropology and biology testifies to a fundamental trade-off between the number of offspring (quantity) and amount of nutrition per child (quality). This leads to a theory of pre-industrial growth where body size as well as population size is endogenous. But when productive quality investments are undertaken the historical constancy of income per capita seems puzzling. Why didn't episodes of rising income instigate a virtuous circle of rising body size and productivity? To address this question we propose that societies are subject to a “physiological check”: if human body size rises, metabolic needs - our conceptualization of “subsistence requirements” - rise. This mechanism turns out to be instrumental in explaining why income growth does not take hold and societies remain near an endogenously determined subsistence boundary. When we use the theory to shed light on pre-industrial cross-country income differences we find that 60-70% of the income differences in 1500 can plausibly be accounted for by variations in subsistence requirements.Malthusian stagnation; Subsistence; Nutrition; Body size; Population growth

Dual Economies and International Total Factor Productivity Differences

This paper argues that a significant part of measured TFP differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non-agriculture seems to be important. We provide a theory which links the institutional framework to the long-run composition of the economy, and thereby to measured TFP and income per worker. A decomposition analysis suggests that between 30 and 50 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises suggest that recent findings of a conducive effect from institutions, and to some extent, geography, on long-run prosperity and TFP, may be thus explained.Dual Economy, Structural Change, Total Factor Productivity, Institutions, Geography

Optimal Aging and Death

This study introduces physiological aging into a simple model of optimal in- tertemporal consumption. In this endeavor we draw on the natural science literature on aging. According to the purposed theory, the speed of the aging process and the time of death are endogenously determined by optimal health investments. At the same time, physiological aspects of the aging process influence optimal savings and health investment. We calibrate the model for the average US male in 2000 and proceed to show that the calibrated model accounts well for the cross-country link between labor productivity and life expectancy in the same year (\the Preston curve"); cross-country income dierences can explain dierences in life expectancy at age 20 of up to a decade. Moreover, techno- logical change in health care of about 1.1% per year can account for the observed shift in the Preston curve between 1980 and 2000.KAging, Longevity, Health Investments, Savings, Preston Curve

Why are Rich Countries more Politically Cohesive?

We document empirically that rich countries are more politically cohesive than poorer countries. In order to explain this regularity, we provide a model where political cohesion is linked to the emergence of a fully functioning market economy. Without market exchange, the welfare of inherently selfish individuals will be mutually independent. As a result, political negotiations, echoing the preferences of the citizens of society, will be dog-eat-dog in nature. Whoever has greater bargaining power will be willing to make decisions that enhance the productivity of his supporters at the expense of other groups in society. If the gains from specialization become sufficiently large, however, a market economy will emerge. From being essentially non-cohesive under self-sufficiency, the political decision making process becomes cohesive in the market economy, as the welfare of individuals will be mutually interdependent due to the exchange of goods. We refer to this latter state as “capitalist cohesion”.political cohesion; economic growth

Accounting for Productivity: Is it OK to Assume that the World is Cobb-Douglas?

The development accounting literature almost always assumes a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function. However, if in reality the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor deviates substantially from 1, the assumption is invalid, potentially casting doubt on the commonly held view that factors of production are relatively unimportant in accounting for differences in labor productivity. We use international data on relative factor shares and capital-output ratios to formulate a number of tests for the validity of the CD assumption. We find that the CD specification performs reasonably well for the purposes of cross-country productivity accounting.

Optimal Aging and Death: Understanding the Preston Curve

The present study examines whether the Preston curve reflects a causal impact of income on longevity or, for example, factors correlated with both income and life expectancy. In order to understand the Preston curve better, we develop a model of optimal intertemporal consumption in which the representative consumer is subject to physiological aging. In modeling aging we draw on recent research in the fields of biology and medicine. The speed of the aging process, and thus the time of death, are endogenously determined by optimal health investments. We calibrate the model to US data and proceed to show that the model accounts for nearly 80% of the cross-country differences in life expectancy that the Preston curve captures.aging; longevity; health investments; savings; Preston curve