Predicting microscale shifts in the distribution of the butterfly Plebejus argus at the northern edge of its range

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordSpecies are often observed to occur in restricted patches of particularly warm microclimate at their high latitude/altitude geographic range margin. In these areas, global warming is expected to cause small-scale expansion of the occupied area, but most previous studies of range expansion have used very coarse scale data. Using high resolution microclimate models together with detailed field surveys, we tested whether the butterfly Plebejus argus, occurring on limestone grassland in north Wales, was responding as might be expected due to climate change in the last 30-40 yr. The abundance of adult Plebejus argus at 100 m resolution in 2011 was strongly affected by elevation and near-ground temperatures in May. A statistical model including microclimate, fitted to 2011 data, was successful (67% correct) at hindcasting the occurrence of Plebejus argus in 1983 when the average May air temperature was 1.4°C cooler. However, the model was less accurate at hindcasting occurrences in 1972 (50% correct). Given the distribution of micro-sites in this landscape, we predict that further warming of approximately 1°C would make the majority of sites highly microclimatically suitable for this species. There are a growing number of long-term studies of range change, and investigations into the mechanisms driving them, but still surprisingly few that explicitly make and test predictions with independent data. Our tests are a valuable example of how accurate predictions of distribution change can be, but also of the inevitable uncertainties. Improved understanding of how well models predict will be very important to plan robust climate change adaptation measures.JAH, JJB, RJW and CDT were supported by NERC grant NE/G006377/1 (). Fieldwork by JAH and NL was supported by a pump-priming grant from the Dept of Biology, Univ. of York

Shark movement strategies influence poaching risk and can guide enforcement decisions in a large, remote Marine Protected Area

1. Large, remote marine protected areas (MPAs) containing both reef and pelagic habitats, have been shown to offer considerable refuge to populations of reef-associated sharks. Many large MPAs are, however, impacted by illegal fishing activity conducted by unlicensed vessels. While enforcement of these reserves is often expensive, it would likely benefit from the integration of ecological data on the mobile animals they are designed to protect. Consequently, shark populations in some protected areas continue to decline, as they remain a prime target for illegal fishers. 2. To understand shark movements and their vulnerability to illegal fishing, three years of acoustic tracking data, from 101 reef-associated sharks, were analysed as movement networks to explore the predictability of movement patterns and identify key movement corridors within the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) MPA. We examined how space use and connectivity overlap with spatially-explicit risk of illegal fishing, through data obtained from the management consultancy enforcing the MPA. 3. Using individual-based models, the movement networks of two sympatric shark species were efficiently predicted with distance-decay functions (>95% movements accurately predicted). Model outliers were used to highlight the locations with unexpectedly high movement rates where MPA enforcement patrols might most efficiently mitigate predator removal. 4. Activity space estimates and network metrics illustrate that silvertip sharks were more dynamic, less resident and link larger components of the MPA than grey reef sharks. However, we show that this behaviour potentially enhances their exposure to illegal fishing activity. 5. Synthesis and applications. Marine protected area (MPA) enforcement strategies are often limited by resources. The British Indian Ocean Territory MPA, one of the world’s largest ‘no take’ MPAs, has a single patrol vessel to enforce 640,000 km2 of open ocean, atoll and reef ecosystems. We argue that to optimise the patrol vessel search strategy and thus enhance their protective capacity, ecological data on the space use and movements of desirable species, such as large-bodied reef predators, must be incorporated into management plans. Here, we use electronic tracking data to evaluate how shark movement dynamics influence species mortality trajectories in exploited reef ecosystems. In doing so we discuss how network analyses of such data might be applied for protected area enforcement

Exploring inverse vulcanisation mechanisms from the perspective of dark sulfur

The build-up of elemental sulfur waste poses problems such that only the advancement of process and product design might act as a solution. Inverse vulcanisation, a process for the generation of high sulfur content polymeric materials may be one such resolution. However, a complete understanding of how these materials form is yet to be fully agreed in this emerging field. Herein is an investigation into the understanding of ‘dark sulfur’ – amorphous, unreacted sulfur, not incorporated into the polymer backbone – in an attempt to understand further the formation mechanisms behind inverse vulcanisation. This research posits theories regarding polymer formation, thermal rearrangement, and the actions of OH to control the degree of product crosslinking, in relation to the quantity of sulfur unreacted into the polymer structure. The detriments and benefits of this dark sulfur in relation to application and general usage are also investigated, showing that a high content of dark sulfur may encourage planktonic bactericidal activity, while also promoting safety considerations from generated species such as hydrogen sulfide and carbon disulfide, concluded as components of this dark sulfur

Comparison of the pharmacodynamic profiles of a biosimilar filgrastim and Amgen filgrastim: results from a randomized, phase I trial

Further to the patent expiry of Neupogen® (Amgen filgrastim), Hospira has developed a biosimilar filgrastim (Nivestim™) that may offer a clinically effective alternative for multiple hematologic and oncologic indications. Here results are reported from a phase I trial, primarily designed to compare the pharmacodynamic profiles of Hospira filgrastim and Amgen filgrastim. A phase I, single-center, double-blind, randomized trial was undertaken to demonstrate equivalence of the pharmacodynamic characteristics of Hospira filgrastim and Amgen filgrastim. Fifty healthy volunteers were randomized to receive 5 or 10 µg/kg dosing, before further randomization to treatment sequence. All volunteers received five daily subcutaneous doses of Hospira filgrastim or Neupogen, with subsequent crossover to the alternative treatment. Bioequivalence was evaluated by analysis of variance; if the estimated 90% confidence intervals (CIs) for the ratio of ‘test’ to ‘reference’ treatment means were within the conventional equivalence limits of 0.80–1.25, then bioequivalence was concluded. Forty-eight volunteers completed the study. Geometric mean absolute neutrophil count area under the curve from time 0 to the last time point at day 5 (primary endpoint) was comparable in volunteers given Hospira filgrastim or Amgen filgrastim at 5 µg/kg (ratio of means, 0.98; 90% CI, 0.92–1.05) or 10 µg/kg (ratio, 0.97; 90% CI, 0.93–1.01); 90% CIs were within the predefined range necessary to demonstrate bioequivalence. Hospira filgrastim was well tolerated with no additional safety concerns over Amgen filgrastim. Hospira filgrastim is bioequivalent with Amgen filgrastim with regard to its pharmacodynamic characteristics

Adolescent brain maturation and cortical folding: evidence for reductions in gyrification

Evidence from anatomical and functional imaging studies have highlighted major modifications of cortical circuits during adolescence. These include reductions of gray matter (GM), increases in the myelination of cortico-cortical connections and changes in the architecture of large-scale cortical networks. It is currently unclear, however, how the ongoing developmental processes impact upon the folding of the cerebral cortex and how changes in gyrification relate to maturation of GM/WM-volume, thickness and surface area. In the current study, we acquired high-resolution (3 Tesla) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from 79 healthy subjects (34 males and 45 females) between the ages of 12 and 23 years and performed whole brain analysis of cortical folding patterns with the gyrification index (GI). In addition to GI-values, we obtained estimates of cortical thickness, surface area, GM and white matter (WM) volume which permitted correlations with changes in gyrification. Our data show pronounced and widespread reductions in GI-values during adolescence in several cortical regions which include precentral, temporal and frontal areas. Decreases in gyrification overlap only partially with changes in the thickness, volume and surface of GM and were characterized overall by a linear developmental trajectory. Our data suggest that the observed reductions in GI-values represent an additional, important modification of the cerebral cortex during late brain maturation which may be related to cognitive development

Divergent Cortical Generators of MEG and EEG during Human Sleep Spindles Suggested by Distributed Source Modeling

Background: Sleep spindles are,1-second bursts of 10–15 Hz activity, occurring during normal stage 2 sleep. In animals, sleep spindles can be synchronous across multiple cortical and thalamic locations, suggesting a distributed stable phaselocked generating system. The high synchrony of spindles across scalp EEG sites suggests that this may also be true in humans. However, prior MEG studies suggest multiple and varying generators. Methodology/Principal Findings: We recorded 306 channels of MEG simultaneously with 60 channels of EEG during naturally occurring spindles of stage 2 sleep in 7 healthy subjects. High-resolution structural MRI was obtained in each subject, to define the shells for a boundary element forward solution and to reconstruct the cortex providing the solution space for a noise-normalized minimum norm source estimation procedure. Integrated across the entire duration of all spindles, sources estimated from EEG and MEG are similar, diffuse and widespread, including all lobes from both hemispheres. However, the locations, phase and amplitude of sources simultaneously estimated from MEG versus EEG are highly distinct during the same spindles. Specifically, the sources estimated from EEG are highly synchronous across the cortex, whereas those from MEG rapidly shift in phase, hemisphere, and the location within the hemisphere. Conclusions/Significance: The heterogeneity of MEG sources implies that multiple generators are active during huma

Display of probability densities for data from a continuous distribution

Based on cumulative distribution functions, Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we present a simple method to display probability densities for data drawn from a continuous distribution. It is often more efficient than using histograms.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, presented at Computer Simulation Studies XXIV, Athens, GA, 201

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

New Measurement of Parity Violation in Elastic Electron-Proton Scattering and Implications for Strange Form Factors

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from the proton. The result is A = -15.05 +- 0.98(stat) +- 0.56(syst) ppm at the kinematic point theta_lab = 12.3 degrees and Q^2 = 0.477 (GeV/c)^2. The measurement implies that the value for the strange form factor (G_E^s + 0.392 G_M^s) = 0.025 +- 0.020 +- 0.014, where the first error is experimental and the second arises from the uncertainties in electromagnetic form factors. This measurement is the first fixed-target parity violation experiment that used either a `strained' GaAs photocathode to produce highly polarized electrons or a Compton polarimeter to continuously monitor the electron beam polarization.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Tex, elsart.cls; revised version as accepted for Phys. Lett.