Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox

The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination

Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman ρ = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman ρ = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19

Monoclonal antibody levels and protection from COVID-19

Multiple monoclonal antibodies have been shown to be effective for both prophylaxis and therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we aggregate data from randomized controlled trials assessing the use of monoclonal antibodies (mAb) in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We use data on the in vivo concentration of mAb and the associated protection from COVID-19 over time to model the dose-response relationship of mAb for prophylaxis. We estimate that 50% protection from COVID-19 is achieved with a mAb concentration of 96-fold of the in vitro IC50 (95% CI: 32—285). This relationship provides a tool for predicting the prophylactic efficacy of new mAb and against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Finally, we compare the relationship between neutralization titer and protection from COVID-19 after either mAb treatment or vaccination. We find no significant difference between the 50% protective titer for mAb and vaccination, although sample sizes limited the power to detect a difference

Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to ‘temporal heterogeneity’ in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to ‘popula-tion heterogeneity’ in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934

Determinants of passive antibody efficacy in SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Randomised controlled trials of passive antibodies as treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19 have reported variable efficacy. However, the determinants of efficacy have not been identified. We aimed to assess how the dose and timing of administration affect treatment outcome. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we extracted data from published studies of passive antibody treatment from Jan 1, 2019, to Jan 31, 2023, that were identified by searching multiple databases, including MEDLINE, PubMed, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included only randomised controlled trials of passive antibody administration for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19. To compare administered antibody dose between different treatments, we used data on in-vitro neutralisation titres to normalise dose by antibody potency. We used mixed-effects regression and model fitting to analyse the relationship between timing, dose and efficacy. Findings: We found 58 randomised controlled trials that investigated passive antibody therapies for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. Earlier clinical stage at treatment initiation was highly predictive of the efficacy of both monoclonal antibodies (p<0·0001) and convalescent plasma therapy (p=0·030) in preventing progression to subsequent stages, with either prophylaxis or treatment in outpatients showing the greatest effects. For the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19, we found a significant association between the dose administered and efficacy in preventing hospitalisation (relative risk 0·77; p<0·0001). Using this relationship, we predicted that no approved monoclonal antibody was expected to provide more than 30% efficacy against some omicron (B.1.1.529) subvariants, such as BQ.1.1. Interpretation: Early administration before hospitalisation and sufficient doses of passive antibody therapy are crucial to achieving high efficacy in preventing clinical progression. The relationship between dose and efficacy provides a framework for the rational assessment of future passive antibody prophylaxis and treatment strategies for COVID-19. Funding: The Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, the University of New South Wales, Monash University, Haematology Society of Australia and New Zealand, Leukaemia Foundation, and the Victorian Government

The magnitude and timing of recalled immunity after breakthrough infection is shaped by SARS-CoV-2 variants

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 protects from infection and improves clinical outcomes in breakthrough infections, likely reflecting residual vaccine-elicited immunity and recall of immunological memory. Here, we define the early kinetics of spike-specific humoral and cellular immunity after vaccination of seropositive individuals and after Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Early longitudinal sampling revealed the timing and magnitude of recall, with the phenotypic activation of B cells preceding an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. While vaccination of seropositive individuals resulted in robust recall of humoral and T cell immunity, recall of vaccine-elicited responses was delayed and variable in magnitude during breakthrough infections and depended on the infecting variant of concern. While the delayed kinetics of immune recall provides a potential mechanism for the lack of early control of viral replication, the recall of antibodies coincided with viral clearance and likely underpins the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19

Ablation lesions in Koch's triangle assessed by three-dimensional myocardial contrast echocardiography

BACKGROUND: Myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) allows visualization of radiofrequency (RF) ablation lesions in the left ventricle in an animal model. Aim: To test whether MCE allows visualization of RF and cryo ablation lesions in the human right atrium using three-dimensional echocardiography. METHODS: 18 patients underwent catheter ablation of a supraventricular tachycardia and were included in this prospective single-blind study. Twelve patients were ablated inside Koch's triangle and 6, who served as controls, outside this area. Three-dimensional echocardiography of Koch's triangle was performed before and after the ablation procedure in all patients, using respiration and ECG gated pullback of a 9 MHz ICE transducer, with and without continuous intravenous echocontrast infusion (SonoVue, Bracco). Two independent observers analyzed the data off-line. RESULTS: MCE identified ablation lesions as a low contrast area within the normal atrial myocardial tissue. Craters on the endocardial surface were seen in 10 (83%) patients after ablation. Lesions were identified in 11 out of 12 patients (92%). None of the control patients were recognized as having been ablated. The confidence score of the independent echo reviewer tended to be higher when the number of applications increased. CONCLUSIONS: 1. MCE allows direct visualization of ablation lesions in the human atrial myocardium. 2. Both RF and cryo energy lesions can be identified using MCE

IFNAR1-Signalling Obstructs ICOS-mediated Humoral Immunity during Non-lethal Blood-Stage Plasmodium Infection

Funding: This work was funded by a Career Development Fellowship (1028634) and a project grant (GRNT1028641) awarded to AHa by the Australian National Health & Medical Research Council (NHMRC). IS was supported by The University of Queensland Centennial and IPRS Scholarships. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Communicating genetic information: a difficult challenge for future pediatricians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of the pediatrician as genetic counselor is ideal because pediatricians have medical knowledge and experience with genetic disorders (e.g. Down syndrome). Moreover, pediatricians can provide comprehensive care in a medical home to patients with genetic disorders. However, changes in the curriculum of the pediatric resident are necessary to address the future challenges of effectively communicating genetic information to patients. The objective of this study was to explore these challenges and make recommendations for training to adequately prepare pediatricians for their future role as genetic counselors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three reviewers independently searched PubMed, OVID, and Medline databases to identify articles describing the challenges of communicating genetic information to patients, published from 1960 to December 2005. After the publications were identified and reviewed, four major areas of interest were identified in order to categorize the findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-five publications were identified during the literature search. From the review, the following categories were selected to organize the findings: (1) Inherent difficulties of communicating and comprehending genetic information; (2) Comprehension of genetic information by pediatricians; (3) Genetics training in residency programs; and (4) The effect of genetic information on the future role of pediatricians and potential legal implications.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pediatricians and residents lack essential knowledge of genetics and communication skills for effective counseling of patients. The review indicated that successful communication of genetic information involves a number of important skills and considerations. It is likely that these skills and considerations are universally required for the communication of most complex specialized medical information. In the past, communication skills have not been considered a priority. Today, these skills have become a demanding professional and even legal obligation. However, the challenges involved in communicating complex medical information cannot be successfully addressed with universal, one-size-fits-all recommendations. Residency training programs require changes to adequately prepare future pediatricians for the growing challenge of communicating genetic information. Four important skills should be considered in the training of residents to improve the communication of complex information to patients. These skills are (1) discriminating, (2) understanding, (3) simplifying, and (4) explaining information.</p