Poly-substance use and antisocial personality traits at admission predict cumulative retention in a buprenorphine programme with mandatory work and high compliance profile

Background: Continuous abstinence and retention in treatment for alcohol and drug use disorders are central challenges for the treatment providers. The literature has failed to show consistent, strong predictors of retention. Predictors and treatment structure may differ across treatment modalities. In this study the structure was reinforced by the addition of supervised urine samples three times a week and mandatory daily work/structured education activities as a prerequisite of inclusion in the program. Methods: Of 128 patients consecutively admitted to buprenorphine maintenance treatment five patients dropped out within the first week. Of the remaining 123 demographic data and psychiatric assessment were used to predict involuntary discharge from treatment and corresponding cumulative abstinence probability. All subjects were administered the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR, and the Symptom Checklist 90 (SCL-90), the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT), the Swedish universities Scales of Personality (SSP) and the Sense of Coherence Scale (SOC), all self-report measures. Some measures were repeated every third month in addition to interviews. Results: Of 123 patients admitted, 86 (70%) remained in treatment after six months and 61 (50%) remained in treatment after 12 months. Of those discharged involuntarily, 34/62 individuals were readmitted after a suspension period of three months. Younger age at intake, poly-substance abuse at intake (number of drugs in urine), and number of conduct disorder criteria on the SCID Screen were independently associated with an increased risk of involuntary discharge. There were no significant differences between dropouts and completers on SCL-90, SSP, SOC or AUDIT. Conclusion: Of the patients admitted to the programme 50% stayed for the first 12 months with continuous abstinence and daily work. Poly-substance use before intake into treatment, high levels of conduct disorder on SCID screen and younger age at intake had a negative impact on retention and abstinence

Predictive validity of the Manchester Triage System: evaluation of outcomes of patients admitted to an emergency department Validez predictiva del Protocolo de Clasificación de Riesgo de Manchester: evaluación de la evolución de los pacientes admitidos en un pronto atendimiento Validade preditiva do Protocolo de Classificação de Risco de Manchester: avaliação da evolução dos pacientes admitidos em um pronto atendimento

OBJECTIVE: to assess the predictive validity of the Manchester Triage System implemented in a municipal hospital in Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. METHOD: cohort prospective and analytical study. The sample of 300 patients was stratified by color groups. The outcome measured was the scores, obtained by patients in each classification group in the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System - 28, 24 hours after admission to the emergency department. RESULTS: A total of 172 (57%) patients were men and the average age of all patients was 57.3 years old. The median score concerning the severity of their conditions was 6.5 points in the yellow group, 11.5 in the orange group, and 22 points in the red group. Statistically significant differences were found among the three groups (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: the data confirm that the conditions of patients within the color groups progressed at different levels of severity.<br>OBJETIVO: evaluar la validez predictiva del protocolo de clasificación de riesgo de Manchester implantado en un hospital municipal de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. MÉTODO: estudio de cohorte prospectivo y analítico. La muestra estratificada por colores de la clasificación fue de 300 pacientes. El final evaluado fue la puntuación por el Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System - 28, lograda por los pacientes en cada grupo de clasificación después de 24 horas de la admisión en el servicio de urgencia. RESULTADOS: entre los pacientes, 172 eran hombres (57%); la media de edad de los pacientes evaluados fue de 57,3 años. La mediana de puntuación del índice de gravedad en el grupo amarillo fue 6,5 puntos; en el grupo naranja, 11,5 puntos y, en el grupo rojo, 22 puntos, habiendo diferencia estadística significante entre los tres grupos (p<0,001). CONCLUSIÓN: los datos refuerzan que los pacientes evolucionan con niveles de gravedad diferentes entre los grupos de colores de clasificación.<br>OBJETIVO: avaliar a validade preditiva do protocolo de classificação de risco de Manchester, implantado em um hospital municipal de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. MÉTODO: trata-se de estudo de coorte prospectivo e analítico A amostra estratificada por cores da classificação foi de 300 pacientes. O desfecho avaliado foi a pontuação pelo Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System - 28, obtida pelos pacientes em cada grupo de classificação, após 24 horas da admissão no serviço de urgência. RESULTADOS: entre os pacientes, 172 eram homens (57%) e a média de idade dos pacientes avaliados foi de 57,3 anos. A mediana de pontuação do índice de gravidade no grupo amarelo foi de 6,5 pontos; no grupo laranja, 11,5 pontos e, no grupo vermelho, 22 pontos, havendo diferença estatística significante entre os três grupos (p<0,001). CONCLUSÃO: os dados reforçam que os pacientes evoluem com níveis de gravidade diferentes entre os grupos de cores de classificação