An investigation of minimisation criteria

Minimisation can be used within treatment trials to ensure that prognostic factors are evenly distributed between treatment groups. The technique is relatively straightforward to apply but does require running tallies of patient recruitments to be made and some simple calculations to be performed prior to each allocation. As computing facilities have become more widely available, minimisation has become a more feasible option for many. Although the technique has increased in popularity, the mode of application is often poorly reported and the choice of input parameters not justified in any logical way

Survival Analysis Part I: Basic concepts and first analyses

Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for data analysis where the outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs. Because of censoring - the nonobservation of the event of interest after a period of follow-up - a proportion of the survival times of interest will often be unknown. It is assumed that those patients who are censored have the same survival prospects as those who continue to be followed, that is, the censoring is uninformative. Survival data are generally described and modelled in terms of two related functions, the survivor function and the hazard function. The survivor function represents the probability that an individual survives from the time of origin to some time beyond time t. It directly describes the survival experience of a study cohort, and is usually estimated by the KM method. The logrank test may be used to test for differences between survival curves for groups, such as treatment arms. The hazard function gives the instantaneous potential of having an event at a time, given survival up to that time. It is used primarily as a diagnostic tool or for specifying a mathematical model for survival analysis. In comparing treatments or prognostic groups in terms of survival, it is often necessary to adjust for patient-related factors that could potentially affect the survival time of a patient. Failure to adjust for confounders may result in spurious effects. Multivariate survival analysis, a form of multiple regression, provides a way of doing this adjustment, and is the subject the next paper in this series

International standards for early fetal size and pregnancy dating based on ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length in the first trimester of pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: There are no international standards for relating fetal crown-rump length (CRL) to gestational age (GA), and most existing charts have considerable methodological limitations. The INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project aimed to produce the first international standards for early fetal size and ultrasound dating of pregnancy based on CRL measurement. METHODS: Urban areas in eight geographically diverse countries that met strict eligibility criteria were selected for the prospective, population-based recruitment, between 9 + 0 and 13 + 6 weeks' gestation, of healthy well-nourished women with singleton pregnancies at low risk of fetal growth impairment. GA was calculated on the basis of a certain last menstrual period, regular menstrual cycle and lack of hormonal medication or breastfeeding in the preceding 2 months. CRL was measured using strict protocols and quality-control measures. All women were followed up throughout pregnancy until delivery and hospital discharge. Cases of neonatal and fetal death, severe pregnancy complications and congenital abnormalities were excluded from the study. RESULTS: A total of 4607 women were enrolled in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study, one of the three main components of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project, of whom 4321 had a live singleton birth in the absence of severe maternal conditions or congenital abnormalities detected by ultrasound or at birth. The CRL was measured in 56 women at < 9 + 0 weeks' gestation; these were excluded, resulting in 4265 women who contributed data to the final analysis. The mean CRL and SD increased with GA almost linearly, and their relationship to GA is given by the following two equations (in which GA is in days and CRL in mm): mean CRL = -50.6562 + (0.815118 × GA) + (0.00535302 × GA(2) ); and SD of CRL = -2.21626 + (0.0984894 × GA). GA estimation is carried out according to the two equations: GA = 40.9041 + (3.21585 × CRL(0.5) ) + (0.348956 × CRL); and SD of GA = 2.39102 + (0.0193474 × CRL). CONCLUSIONS: We have produced international prescriptive standards for early fetal linear size and ultrasound dating of pregnancy in the first trimester that can be used throughout the world

Human hippocampal neurogenesis drops sharply in children to undetectable levels in adults.

New neurons continue to be generated in the subgranular zone of the dentate gyrus of the adult mammalian hippocampus. This process has been linked to learning and memory, stress and exercise, and is thought to be altered in neurological disease. In humans, some studies have suggested that hundreds of new neurons are added to the adult dentate gyrus every day, whereas other studies find many fewer putative new neurons. Despite these discrepancies, it is generally believed that the adult human hippocampus continues to generate new neurons. Here we show that a defined population of progenitor cells does not coalesce in the subgranular zone during human fetal or postnatal development. We also find that the number of proliferating progenitors and young neurons in the dentate gyrus declines sharply during the first year of life and only a few isolated young neurons are observed by 7 and 13 years of age. In adult patients with epilepsy and healthy adults (18-77 years; n = 17 post-mortem samples from controls; n = 12 surgical resection samples from patients with epilepsy), young neurons were not detected in the dentate gyrus. In the monkey (Macaca mulatta) hippocampus, proliferation of neurons in the subgranular zone was found in early postnatal life, but this diminished during juvenile development as neurogenesis decreased. We conclude that recruitment of young neurons to the primate hippocampus decreases rapidly during the first years of life, and that neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus does not continue, or is extremely rare, in adult humans. The early decline in hippocampal neurogenesis raises questions about how the function of the dentate gyrus differs between humans and other species in which adult hippocampal neurogenesis is preserved

Effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise following hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: a systematic review of clinical trials

Background: Physiotherapy has long been a routine component of patient rehabilitation following hip joint replacement. The purpose of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise after discharge from hospital on function, walking, range of motion, quality of life and muscle strength, for osteoarthritic patients following elective primary total hip arthroplasty. Methods: Design: Systematic review, using the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and the Quorom Statement. Database searches: AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, KingsFund, MEDLINE, Cochrane library (Cochrane reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, DARE), PEDro, The Department of Health National Research Register. Handsearches: Physiotherapy, Physical Therapy, Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery (Britain) Conference Proceedings. No language restrictions were applied. Selection: Trials comparing physiotherapy exercise versus usual/standard care, or comparing two types of relevant exercise physiotherapy, following discharge from hospital after elective primary total hip replacement for osteoarthritis were reviewed. Outcomes: Functional activities of daily living, walking, quality of life, muscle strength and range of hip joint motion. Trial quality was extensively evaluated. Narrative synthesis plus meta-analytic summaries were performed to summarise the data. Results: 8 trials were identified. Trial quality was mixed. Generally poor trial quality, quantity and diversity prevented explanatory meta-analyses. The results were synthesised and meta-analytic summaries were used where possible to provide a formal summary of results. Results indicate that physiotherapy exercise after discharge following total hip replacement has the potential to benefit patients. Conclusion: Insufficient evidence exists to establish the effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise following primary hip replacement for osteoarthritis. Further well designed trials are required to determine the value of post discharge exercise following this increasingly common surgical procedure

Cytoplasmic PML promotes TGF-β-associated epithelial–mesenchymal transition and invasion in prostate cancer

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a key event that is involved in the invasion and dissemination of cancer cells. Although typically considered as having tumour-suppressive properties, transforming growth factor (TGF)-β signalling is altered during cancer and has been associated with the invasion of cancer cells and metastasis. In this study, we report a previously unknown role for the cytoplasmic promyelocytic leukaemia (cPML) tumour suppressor in TGF-β signalling-induced regulation of prostate cancer-associated EMT and invasion. We demonstrate that cPML promotes a mesenchymal phenotype and increases the invasiveness of prostate cancer cells. This event is associated with activation of TGF-β canonical signalling pathway through the induction of Sma and Mad related family 2 and 3 (SMAD2 and SMAD3) phosphorylation. Furthermore, the cytoplasmic localization of promyelocytic leukaemia (PML) is mediated by its nuclear export in a chromosomal maintenance 1 (CRM1)-dependent manner. This was clinically tested in prostate cancer tissue and shown that cytoplasmic PML and CRM1 co-expression correlates with reduced disease-specific survival. In summary, we provide evidence of dysfunctional TGF-β signalling occurring at an early stage in prostate cancer. We show that this disease pathway is mediated by cPML and CRM1 and results in a more aggressive cancer cell phenotype. We propose that the targeting of this pathway could be therapeutically exploited for clinical benefit

Calculating unreported confidence intervals for paired data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Confidence intervals (or associated standard errors) facilitate assessment of the practical importance of the findings of a health study, and their incorporation into a meta-analysis. For paired design studies, these items are often not reported. Since the descriptive statistics for such studies are usually presented in the same way as for unpaired designs, direct computation of the standard error is not possible without additional information.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Elementary, well-known relationships between standard errors and <it>p</it>-values were used to develop computation schemes for paired mean difference, risk difference, risk ratio and odds ratio.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unreported confidence intervals for large sample paired binary and numeric data can be computed fairly accurately using simple methods provided the <it>p</it>-value is given. In the case of paired binary data, the design based 2 × 2 table can be reconstructed as well.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results will facilitate appropriate interpretation of paired design studies, and their incorporation into meta-analyses.</p

Predicting infectious complications in neutropenic children and young people with cancer (IPD protocol)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common and potentially life-threatening complication of the treatment of childhood cancer is infection, which frequently presents as fever with neutropenia. The standard management of such episodes is the extensive use of intravenous antibiotics, and though it produces excellent survival rates of over 95%, it greatly inconveniences the three-fourths of patients who do not require such aggressive treatment. There have been a number of studies which have aimed to develop risk prediction models to stratify treatment. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis in therapeutic studies has been developed to improve the precision and reliability of answers to questions of treatment effect and recently have been suggested to be used to answer questions regarding prognosis and diagnosis to gain greater power from the frequently small individual studies.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>In the IPD protocol, we will collect and synthesise IPD from multiple studies and examine the outcomes of episodes of febrile neutropenia as a consequence of their treatment for malignant disease. We will develop and evaluate a risk stratification model using hierarchical regression models to stratify patients by their risk of experiencing adverse outcomes during an episode. We will also explore specific practical and methodological issues regarding adaptation of established techniques of IPD meta-analysis of interventions for use in synthesising evidence derived from IPD from multiple studies for use in predictive modelling contexts.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Our aim in using this model is to define a group of individuals at low risk for febrile neutropenia who might be treated with reduced intensity or duration of antibiotic therapy and so reduce the inconvenience and cost of these episodes, as well as to define a group of patients at very high risk of complications who could be subject to more intensive therapies. The project will also help develop methods of IPD predictive modelling for use in future studies of risk prediction.</p