The stability paradox : why expansion of education for women has not delayed age at first union or childbearing in Latin America

Despite substantial improvements in women's education, the age atwhich Latin American women marry (cohabit) or become mothers for the first time has barely decreased over the past four decades. We refer to this as the "stability paradox." We examine the relationship between years of schooling and transitions to first union or child, analyzing retrospective information from 50 cohorts of women born between 1940 and 1989 in 12 Latin American countries. Absolute and relative measures of schooling are compared. Data is drawn from 38 Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 1986 and 2012 in these countries. Results show that expected postponement in family transitions due to educational expansion was offset by a rise in union formation and childbearing within strata of absolute education, but stayed approximately constant within strata of relative education. The relative measure of education retains the stratifying power of education but neutralizes any effect attached to a specific number of years of schooling and the learning skills associated with them. This is consistent with the idea that access to education in Latin America reproduces existing patterns of socioeconomic advantage, rather than creating a more equitable distribution of learning opportunities and outcomes

Multivariable risk prediction can greatly enhance the statistical power of clinical trial subgroup analysis

BACKGROUND: When subgroup analyses of a positive clinical trial are unrevealing, such findings are commonly used to argue that the treatment's benefits apply to the entire study population; however, such analyses are often limited by poor statistical power. Multivariable risk-stratified analysis has been proposed as an important advance in investigating heterogeneity in treatment benefits, yet no one has conducted a systematic statistical examination of circumstances influencing the relative merits of this approach vs. conventional subgroup analysis. METHODS: Using simulated clinical trials in which the probability of outcomes in individual patients was stochastically determined by the presence of risk factors and the effects of treatment, we examined the relative merits of a conventional vs. a "risk-stratified" subgroup analysis under a variety of circumstances in which there is a small amount of uniformly distributed treatment-related harm. The statistical power to detect treatment-effect heterogeneity was calculated for risk-stratified and conventional subgroup analysis while varying: 1) the number, prevalence and odds ratios of individual risk factors for risk in the absence of treatment, 2) the predictiveness of the multivariable risk model (including the accuracy of its weights), 3) the degree of treatment-related harm, and 5) the average untreated risk of the study population. RESULTS: Conventional subgroup analysis (in which single patient attributes are evaluated "one-at-a-time") had at best moderate statistical power (30% to 45%) to detect variation in a treatment's net relative risk reduction resulting from treatment-related harm, even under optimal circumstances (overall statistical power of the study was good and treatment-effect heterogeneity was evaluated across a major risk factor [OR = 3]). In some instances a multi-variable risk-stratified approach also had low to moderate statistical power (especially when the multivariable risk prediction tool had low discrimination). However, a multivariable risk-stratified approach can have excellent statistical power to detect heterogeneity in net treatment benefit under a wide variety of circumstances, instances under which conventional subgroup analysis has poor statistical power. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that under many likely scenarios, a multivariable risk-stratified approach will have substantially greater statistical power than conventional subgroup analysis for detecting heterogeneity in treatment benefits and safety related to previously unidentified treatment-related harm. Subgroup analyses must always be well-justified and interpreted with care, and conventional subgroup analyses can be useful under some circumstances; however, clinical trial reporting should include a multivariable risk-stratified analysis when an adequate externally-developed risk prediction tool is available

Reviewer agreement trends from four years of electronic submissions of conference abstract

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the inter-rater agreement between reviewers on the quality of abstract submissions to an annual national scientific meeting (Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians; CAEP) to identify factors associated with low agreement. METHODS: All abstracts were submitted using an on-line system and assessed by three volunteer CAEP reviewers blinded to the abstracts' source. Reviewers used an on-line form specific for each type of study design to score abstracts based on nine criteria, each contributing from two to six points toward the total (maximum 24). The final score was determined to be the mean of the three reviewers' scores using Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: 495 Abstracts were received electronically during the four-year period, 2001 – 2004, increasing from 94 abstracts in 2001 to 165 in 2004. The mean score for submitted abstracts over the four years was 14.4 (95% CI: 14.1–14.6). While there was no significant difference between mean total scores over the four years (p = 0.23), the ICC increased from fair (0.36; 95% CI: 0.24–0.49) to moderate (0.59; 95% CI: 0.50–0.68). Reviewers agreed less on individual criteria than on the total score in general, and less on subjective than objective criteria. CONCLUSION: The correlation between reviewers' total scores suggests general recognition of "high quality" and "low quality" abstracts. Criteria based on the presence/absence of objective methodological parameters (i.e., blinding in a controlled clinical trial) resulted in higher inter-rater agreement than the more subjective and opinion-based criteria. In future abstract competitions, defining criteria more objectively so that reviewers can base their responses on empirical evidence may lead to increased consistency of scoring and, presumably, increased fairness to submitters

Low correlation between visit-to-visit variability and 24-h variability of blood pressure

Visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of clinic systolic blood pressure (SBP) has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk. Given the need for obtaining blood pressure (BP) at multiple visits to calculate VVV, substituting BP variability from ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) may be a practical alternative. We assessed the correlation between VVV of BP and BP variability from ABPM using data from 146 untreated, mostly normotensive participants (mean age 47.9 years) in a substudy of the ongoing Masked Hypertension Study. VVV of SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was estimated by the standard deviation (SDvvv) and average real variability (ARVvvv) from 6 study visits over a median of 216 days. ABPM data were used to calculate the day-night SD (SDdn) and the ARV of SBP and DBP over 24 hours (ARV24). For SBP, the mean SDvvv and SDdn were 6.3 (SD=2.5) and 8.8 (SD=1.8) mmHg, respectively, and mean ARVvvv and ARV24 were 7.2 (SD=3.2) and 8.4 (SD=2.1) mmHg, respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficient between SDvvv and SDdn of SBP was rs=0.25 and between ARVvvv and ARV24 was rs=0.17. Participants in the highest quartile of SDdn of SBP were 1.66 (95% CI: 0.93 – 2.75) times more likely to be in the highest quartile of SDvvv of SBP. The observed-to-expected ratio between the highest quartiles of ARVvvv and ARV24 of SBP was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.41 – 1.69). The correlations for SDvvv and SDdn and ARVvvv and ARV24 of DBP were minimal. These data suggest VVV and 24-hour variability are weakly correlated and not interchangeable

Convergence and divergence in the evolution of cat skulls: temporal and spatial patterns of morphological diversity

Background: Studies of biological shape evolution are greatly enhanced when framed in a phylogenetic perspective. Inclusion of fossils amplifies the scope of macroevolutionary research, offers a deep-time perspective on tempo and mode of radiations, and elucidates life-trait changes. We explore the evolution of skull shape in felids (cats) through morphometric analyses of linear variables, phylogenetic comparative methods, and a new cladistic study of saber-toothed cats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A new phylogenetic analysis supports the monophyly of saber-toothed cats (Machairodontinae) exclusive of Felinae and some basal felids, but does not support the monophyly of various sabertoothed tribes and genera. We quantified skull shape variation in 34 extant and 18 extinct species using size-adjusted linear variables. These distinguish taxonomic group membership with high accuracy. Patterns of morphospace occupation are consistent with previous analyses, for example, in showing a size gradient along the primary axis of shape variation and a separation between large and small-medium cats. By combining the new phylogeny with a molecular tree of extant Felinae, we built a chronophylomorphospace (a phylogeny superimposed onto a two-dimensional morphospace through time). The evolutionary history of cats was characterized by two major episodes of morphological divergence, one marking the separation between saber-toothed and modern cats, the other marking the split between large and small-medium cats. Conclusions/Significance: Ancestors of large cats in the ‘Panthera’ lineage tend to occupy, at a much later stage, morphospace regions previously occupied by saber-toothed cats. The latter radiated out into new morphospace regions peripheral to those of extant large cats. The separation between large and small-medium cats was marked by considerable morphologically divergent trajectories early in feline evolution. A chronophylomorphospace has wider applications in reconstructing temporal transitions across two-dimensional trait spaces, can be used in ecophenotypical and functional diversity studies, and may reveal novel patterns of morphospace occupation

Intermittent control models of human standing: similarities and differences

Two architectures of intermittent control are compared and contrasted in the context of the single inverted pendulum model often used for describing standing in humans. The architectures are similar insofar as they use periods of open-loop control punctuated by switching events when crossing a switching surface to keep the system state trajectories close to trajectories leading to equilibrium. The architectures differ in two significant ways. Firstly, in one case, the open-loop control trajectory is generated by a system-matched hold, and in the other case, the open-loop control signal is zero. Secondly, prediction is used in one case but not the other. The former difference is examined in this paper. The zero control alternative leads to periodic oscillations associated with limit cycles; whereas the system-matched control alternative gives trajectories (including homoclinic orbits) which contain the equilibrium point and do not have oscillatory behaviour. Despite this difference in behaviour, it is further shown that behaviour can appear similar when either the system is perturbed by additive noise or the system-matched trajectory generation is perturbed. The purpose of the research is to come to a common approach for understanding the theoretical properties of the two alternatives with the twin aims of choosing which provides the best explanation of current experimental data (which may not, by itself, distinguish beween the two alternatives) and suggesting future experiments to distinguish between the two alternatives

Outcome based subgroup analysis: a neglected concern

A subgroup of clinical trial subjects identified by baseline characteristics is a proper subgroup while a subgroup determined by post randomization events or measures is an improper subgroup. Both types of subgroups are often analyzed in clinical trial papers. Yet, the extensive scrutiny of subgroup analyses has almost exclusively attended to the former. The analysis of improper subgroups thereby not only flourishes in numerous disguised ways but also does so without a corresponding awareness of its pitfalls. Comparisons of the grade of angina in a heart disease trial, for example, usually include only the survivors. This paper highlights some of the distinct ways in which outcome based subgroup analysis occurs, describes the hazards associated with it, and proposes a simple alternative approach to counter its analytic bias. Data from six published trials show that outcome based subgroup analysis, like proper subgroup analysis, may be performed in a post-hoc fashion, overdone, selectively reported, and over interpreted. Six hypothetical trial scenarios illustrate the forms of hidden bias related to it. That bias can, however, be addressed by assigning clinically appropriate scores to the usually excluded subjects and performing an analysis that includes all the randomized subjects. A greater level of awareness about the practice and pitfalls of outcome based subgroup analysis is needed. When required, such an analysis should maintain the integrity of randomization. This issue needs greater practical and methodologic attention than has been accorded to it thus far

What kind of evidence is it that Evidence-Based Medicine advocates want health care providers and consumers to pay attention to?

BACKGROUND: In 1992, Evidence-Based Medicine advocates proclaimed a "new paradigm", in which evidence from health care research is the best basis for decisions for individual patients and health systems. Hailed in New York Times Magazine in 2001 as one of the most influential ideas of the year, this approach was initially and provocatively pitted against the traditional teaching of medicine, in which the key elements of knowing for clinical purposes are understanding of basic pathophysiologic mechanisms of disease coupled with clinical experience. This paper reviews the origins, aspirations, philosophical limitations, and practical challenges of evidence-based medicine. DISCUSSION: EBM has long since evolved beyond its initial (mis)conception, that EBM might replace traditional medicine. EBM is now attempting to augment rather than replace individual clinical experience and understanding of basic disease mechanisms. EBM must continue to evolve, however, to address a number of issues including scientific underpinnings, moral stance and consequences, and practical matters of dissemination and application. For example, accelerating the transfer of research findings into clinical practice is often based on incomplete evidence from selected groups of people, who experience a marginal benefit from an expensive technology, raising issues of the generalizability of the findings, and increasing problems with how many and who can afford the new innovations in care. SUMMARY: Advocates of evidence-based medicine want clinicians and consumers to pay attention to the best findings from health care research that are both valid and ready for clinical application. Much remains to be done to reach this goal

Cellulite and extracorporeal Shockwave therapy (CelluShock-2009) - a Randomized Trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cellulite is a widespread problem involving females' buttocks and thighs based on the female specific anatomy. Given the higher number of fat cells stored in female fatty tissue in contrast to males, and the aging process of connective tissue leads to an imbalance between lipogenesis and lipolysis with subsequent large fat cells bulging the skin. In addition, microcirculatory changes have been suggested, however remain largely unknown in a controlled clinical setting. We hypothesize that the combination of extracorporeal shockwave and a daily gluteal muscle strength program is superior to the gluteal muscle strength program alone in cellulite.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Study design: Randomized-controlled trial. IRB approval was granted at Hannover Medical School, Germany on May 22, 2009. For allocation of participants, a 1:1 ratio randomization was performed using opaque envelopes for the concealment of allocation. Reporting: according to CONSORT 2010. Eligible patients were females aged 18 or over and 65 or younger with cellulite with documented cellulite 1°-4° according to the Nürnberger score. Exclusion criteria were suspected or evident pregnancy, no cellulite, no informed consent or age under 18 years or above 65 years. Patients were recruited by advertisements in local regional newspapers and via the Internet. Analysis: Intention-to-treat. Outcome parameters: a) Photonumeric severity scale, b) Nürnberger Score, c) circumference measurements, d) capillary blood flow, e) tissue oxygen saturation, f) postcapillary venous blood flow. Intervention group: Six sessions of extracorporeal focused shock wave for six sessions (2000 impulses, 0,25 mJ/m2 every 1-2 weeks) at both gluteal and thigh regions plus a specific gluteal strength exercise training. Control group: Six sessions of sham extracorporeal focused shock wave for six sessions (2000 impulses, 0,01 mJ/m2 every 1-2 weeks) at both gluteal and thigh regions plus a specific gluteal strength exercise training. Follow-up: 12 weeks. Blinding was achieved for all participants enrolled in the trial, the photograph taking the digital images for the primary outcome measure, the two assessors of the outcome measures, all additional health care providers and for the analyst from the biometrical department. Only one researcher (BJ) was aware of the group assignment performing the randomisation and the extracorporeal shock wave therapy.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This randomised-controlled trial will provide much needed evidence on the clinical effectiveness of focused extracorporal shock wave therapy as an adjunct to gluteal strength training in females suffering cellulite.</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov identifier</p> <p>NCT00947414</p

Lymphoma incidence, survival and prevalence 2004–2014 : sub-type analyses from the UK’s Haematological Malignancy Research Network

Background: Population-based information about cancer occurrence and survival are required to inform clinical practice and research; but for most lymphomas data are lacking. Methods: Set within a socio-demographically representative UK population of nearly 4 million, lymphoma data (N ¼ 5796) are from an established patient cohort. Results: Incidence, survival (overall and relative) and prevalence estimates for 420 subtypes are presented. With few exceptions, males tended to be diagnosed at younger ages and have significantly (Po0.05) higher incidence rates. Differences were greatest at younger ages: the o15 year male/female rate ratio for all subtypes combined being 2.2 (95% CI 1.3–3.4). These gender differences impacted on prevalence; most subtype estimates being significantly (Po0.05) higher in males than females. Outcome varied widely by subtype; survival of patients with nodular lymphocyte predominant Hodgkin lymphoma approached that of the general population, whereas less than a third of those with other B-cell (e.g., mantle cell) or T-cell (e.g., peripheral-T) lymphomas survived for Z5 years. No males/female survival differences were detected. Conclusions: Major strengths of our study include completeness of ascertainment, world-class diagnostics and generalisability. The marked variations demonstrated confirm the requirement for ‘real-world’ data to inform aetiological hypotheses, health-care planning and the future monitoring of therapeutic changes