Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008–11

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950–51, 1973–75 and 2008–11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008–11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004-2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66-0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam

Encephalomyocarditis virus infection in an Italian zoo

A fatal Encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) infection epidemic involving fifteen primates occurred between October 2006 and February 2007 at the Natura Viva Zoo. This large open-field zoo park located near Lake Garda in Northern Italy hosts one thousand animals belonging to one hundred and fifty different species, including various lemur species. This lemur collection is the most relevant and rich in Italy. A second outbreak between September and November 2008 involved three lemurs. In all cases, the clinical signs were sudden deaths generally without any evident symptoms or only with mild unspecific clinical signs. Gross pathologic changes were characterized by myocarditis (diffuse or focal pallor of the myocardium), pulmonary congestion, emphysema, oedema and thoracic fluid. The EMCV was isolated and recognized as the causative agent of both outbreaks. The first outbreak in particular was associated with a rodent plague, confirming that rats are an important risk factor for the occurrence of the EMCV infection

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

Background: Dengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country. Methodology/Principal findings: Hospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power. Conclusions/Significance: Our data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environmen

Differences in pharmaceutical consumption and expenses between immigrant and Spanish-born populations in Lleida, (Spain): A 6-months prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are few studies comparing pharmaceutical costs and the use of medications between immigrants and the autochthonous population in Spain. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether there are differences in pharmaceutical consumption and expenses between immigrant and Spanish-born populations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective observational study in 1,630 immigrants and 4,154 Spanish-born individuals visited by fifteen primary care physicians at five public Primary Care Clinics (PCC) during 2005 in the city of Lleida, Catalonia (Spain). Data on pharmaceutical consumption and expenses was obtained from a comprehensive computerized data-collection system. Multinomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks and confidence intervals of pharmaceutical expenditure, adjusting for age and sex.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The percentage of individuals that purchased medications during a six-month period was 53.7% in the immigrant group and 79.2% in the autochthonous group. Pharmaceutical expenses and consumption were lower in immigrants than in autochthonous patients in all age groups and both genders. The relative risks of being in the highest quartile of expenditure, for Spanish-born versus immigrants, were 6.9, 95% CI = (4.2, 11.5) in men and 5.3, 95% CI = (3.5, 8.0) in women, with the reference category being not having any pharmaceutical expenditure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pharmaceutical expenses are much lower for immigrants with respect to autochthonous patients, both in the percentage of prescriptions filled at pharmacies and the number of containers of medication obtained, as well as the prices of the medications used. Future studies should explore which factors explain the observed differences in pharmaceutical expenses and if these disparities produce health inequalities.</p

Characterization of Mycosphaerellaceae species associated with citrus greasy spot in Panama and Spain

[EN] Greasy spot of citrus, caused by Zasmidium citri-griseum (= Mycosphaerella citri), is widely distributed in the Caribbean Basin, inducing leaf spots, premature defoliation, and yield loss. Greasy spot-like symptoms were frequently observed in humid citrus-growing regions in Panama as well as in semi-arid areas in Spain, but disease aetiology was unknown. Citrus-growing areas in Panama and Spain were surveyed and isolates of Mycosphaerellaceae were obtained from citrus greasy spot lesions. A selection of isolates from Panama (n = 22) and Spain (n = 16) was assembled based on their geographical origin, citrus species, and affected tissue. The isolates were characterized based on multi-locus DNA (ITS and EF-1 alpha) sequence analyses, morphology, growth at different temperatures, and independent pathogenicity tests on the citrus species most affected in each country. Reference isolates and sequences were also included in the analysis. Isolates from Panama were identified as Z. citri-griseum complex, and others from Spain attributed to Amycosphaerella africana. Isolates of the Z. citri-griseum complex had a significantly higher optimal growth temperature (26.8 degrees C) than those of A. africana (19.3 degrees C), which corresponded well with their actual biogeographical range. The isolates of the Z. citri-griseum complex from Panama induced typical greasy spot symptoms in 'Valencia' sweet orange plants and the inoculated fungi were reisolated. No symptoms were observed in plants of the 'Ortanique' tangor inoculated with A. africana. These results demonstrate the presence of citrus greasy spot, caused by Z. citri-griseum complex, in Panama whereas A. africana was associated with greasy spot-like symptoms in Spain.Research was partially funded by 'Programa de Formacion de los INIA Iberoamerica' and INIA RTA2010-00105-00-00-FEDER to Vidal Aguilera Cogley.. We thank J. Martinez-Minaya (UV) for assistance with INLAAguilera-Cogley, VA.; Berbegal Martinez, M.; Català, S.; Collison Brentu, F.; Armengol Fortí, J.; Vicent Civera, A. (2017). Characterization of Mycosphaerellaceae species associated with citrus greasy spot in Panama and Spain. PLoS ONE. 12(12):1-19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189585S1191212Crous, P. W., Summerell, B. A., Carnegie, A. J., Wingfield, M. J., Hunter, G. C., Burgess, T. I., … Groenewald, J. Z. (2009). Unravelling Mycosphaerella: do you believe in genera? Persoonia - Molecular Phylogeny and Evolution of Fungi, 23(1), 99-118. doi:10.3767/003158509x479487Mondal, S. N., & Timmer, L. W. (2006). Greasy Spot, a Serious Endemic Problem for Citrus Production in the Caribbean Basin. Plant Disease, 90(5), 532-538. doi:10.1094/pd-90-0532Whiteside, J. O. (1970). Etiology and Epidemiology of Citrus Greasy Spot. Phytopathology, 60(10), 1409. doi:10.1094/phyto-60-1409Huang, F., Groenewald, J. Z., Zhu, L., Crous, P. W., & Li, H. 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Religious affiliation modulates weekly cycles of cropland burning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research ArticleVegetation burning is a common land management practice in Africa, where fire is used for hunting, livestock husbandry, pest control, food gathering, cropland fertilization, and wildfire prevention. Given such strong anthropogenic control of fire, we tested the hypotheses that fire activity displays weekly cycles, and that the week day with the fewest fires depends on regionally predominant religious affiliation.We also analyzed the effect of land use (anthrome) on weekly fire cycle significance. Fire density (fire counts.km-2) observed per week day in each region was modeled using a negative binomial regression model, with fire counts as response variable, region area as offset and a structured random effect to account for spatial dependence. Anthrome (settled, cropland, natural, rangeland), religion (Christian, Muslim, mixed) week day, and their 2-way and 3-way interactions were used as independent variables. Models were also built separately for each anthrome, relating regional fire density with week day and religious affiliation. Analysis revealed a significant interaction between religion and week day, i.e. regions with different religious affiliation (Christian, Muslim) display distinct weekly cycles of burning. However, the religion vs. week day interaction only is significant for croplands, i.e. fire activity in African croplands is significantly lower on Sunday in Christian regions and on Friday in Muslim regions. Magnitude of fire activity does not differ significantly among week days in rangelands and in natural areas, where fire use is under less strict control than in croplands. These findings can contribute towards improved specification of ignition patterns in regional/global vegetation fire models, and may lead to more accurate meteorological and chemical weather forecastinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Improving epidemiologic data analyses through multivariate regression modelling

Regression modelling is one of the most widely utilized approaches in epidemiological analyses. It provides a method of identifying statistical associations, from which potential causal associations relevant to disease control may then be investigated. Multivariable regression – a single dependent variable (outcome, usually disease) with multiple independent variables (predictors) – has long been the standard model. Generalizing multivariable regression to multivariate regression – all variables potentially statistically dependent – offers a far richer modelling framework. Through a series of simple illustrative examples we compare and contrast these approaches. The technical methodology used to implement multivariate regression is well established – Bayesian network structure discovery – and while a relative newcomer to the epidemiological literature has a long history in computing science. Applications of multivariate analysis in epidemiological studies can provide a greater understanding of disease processes at the population level, leading to the design of better disease control and prevention programs

Information Routing Driven by Background Chatter in a Signaling Network

Living systems are capable of processing multiple sources of information simultaneously. This is true even at the cellular level, where not only coexisting signals stimulate the cell, but also the presence of fluctuating conditions is significant. When information is received by a cell signaling network via one specific input, the existence of other stimuli can provide a background activity –or chatter– that may affect signal transmission through the network and, therefore, the response of the cell. Here we study the modulation of information processing by chatter in the signaling network of a human cell, specifically, in a Boolean model of the signal transduction network of a fibroblast. We observe that the level of external chatter shapes the response of the system to information carrying signals in a nontrivial manner, modulates the activity levels of the network outputs, and effectively determines the paths of information flow. Our results show that the interactions and node dynamics, far from being random, confer versatility to the signaling network and allow transitions between different information-processing scenarios