Interpreting random forest classification models using a feature contribution method

Model interpretation is one of the key aspects of the model evaluation process. The explanation of the relationship between model variables and outputs is relatively easy for statistical models, such as linear regressions, thanks to the availability of model parameters and their statistical significance . For “black box” models, such as random forest, this information is hidden inside the model structure. This work presents an approach for computing feature contributions for random forest classification models. It allows for the determination of the influence of each variable on the model prediction for an individual instance. By analysing feature contributions for a training dataset, the most significant variables can be determined and their typical contribution towards predictions made for individual classes, i.e., class-specific feature contribution “patterns”, are discovered. These patterns represent a standard behaviour of the model and allow for an additional assessment of the model reliability for new data. Interpretation of feature contributions for two UCI benchmark datasets shows the potential of the proposed methodology. The robustness of results is demonstrated through an extensive analysis of feature contributions calculated for a large number of generated random forest models

52-week efficacy and safety of telbivudine with conditional tenofovir intensification at week 24 in HBeAg-positive chronic Hepatitis B

Background and Aims: The Roadmap concept is a therapeutic framework in chronic hepatitis B for the intensification of nucleoside analogue monotherapy based on early virologic response. The efficacy and safety of this approach applied to telbivudine treatment has not been investigated. Methods: A multinational, phase IV, single-arm open-label study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT00651209) was undertaken in HBeAg-positive, nucleoside-naive adult patients with chronic hepatitis B. Patients received telbivudine (600 mg once-daily) for 24 weeks, after which those with undetectable serum HBV DNA (<300 copies/mL) continued to receive telbivudine alone while those with detectable DNA received telbivudine plus tenofovir (300 mg once-daily). Outcomes were assessed at Week 52. Results: 105 patients commenced telbivudine monotherapy, of whom 100 were included in the efficacy analysis. Fifty-five (55%) had undetectable HBV DNA at Week 24 and continued telbivudine monotherapy; 45 (45%) received tenofovir intensification. At Week 52, the overall proportion of undetectable HBV DNA was 93% (93/100) by last-observation-carried-forward analysis (100% monotherapy group, 84% intensification group) and no virologic breakthroughs had occurred. ALT normalization occurred in 77% (87% monotherapy, 64% intensification), HBeAg clearance in 43% (65% monotherapy, 16% intensification), and HBeAg seroconversion in 39% (62% monotherapy, 11% intensification). Six patients had HBsAg clearance. Myalgia was more common in the monotherapy group (19% versus 7%). No decrease in the mean glomerular filtration rate occurred in either treatment group at Week 52. Conclusions: Telbivudine therapy with tenofovir intensification at Week 24, where indicated by the Roadmap strategy, appears effective and well tolerated for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0065120

Sodium taurocholate stimulates Campylobacter jejuni outer membrane vesicle production via down-regulation of the maintenance of lipid asymmetry pathway

Campylobacter jejuni outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) contain numerous virulence-associated proteins including the cytolethal distending toxin and three serine proteases. As C. jejuni lacks the classical virulence-associated secretion systems of other enteric pathogens that deliver effectors directly into target cells, OMVs may have a particularly important role in virulence. C. jejuni OMV production is stimulated by the presence of physiological concentrations of the bile salt sodium taurocholate (ST) through an unknown mechanism. The maintenance of lipid asymmetry (MLA) pathway has been implicated in a novel mechanism for OMV biogenesis, open to regulation by host signals. In this study we investigated the role of the MLA pathway in C. jejuni OMV biogenesis with ST as a potential regulator. OMV production was quantified by analyzing protein and lipid concentrations of OMV preparations and OMV particle counts produced by nanoparticle tracking analysis. Mutation of mlaA which encodes the outer membrane component of the MLA pathway significantly increased OMV production compared to the wild-type strain. Detergent sensitivity and membrane permeability assays confirmed the increased OMV production was not due to changes in membrane stability. The presence of 0.2% (w/v) ST increased wild-type OMV production and reduced OMV size, but did not further stimulate mlaA mutant OMV production or significantly alter mlaA mutant OMV size. qRT-PCR analysis demonstrated that the presence of ST decreased expression of both mlaA and mlaC in C. jejuni wild-type strains 11168 and 488. Collectively the data in this study suggests C. jejuni can regulate OMV production in response to host gut signals through changes in expression of the MLA pathway. As the gut bile composition is dependent on both diet and the microbiota, this study highlights the potential importance of diet and lifestyle factors on the varying disease presentations associated with gut pathogen infection

The importance of baseline viral load when assessing relative efficacy in treatment-naïve HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To date no network meta-analysis (NMA) has accounted for baseline variations in viral load when assessing the relative efficacy of interventions for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We undertook baseline-adjusted and unadjusted analyses using the same data to explore the impact of baseline viral load (BVL) on CHB treatment response. METHODS: We searched Embase, Medline, Medline in Process and the Cochrane CENTRAL databases for randomised clinical trials (RCTs) of monotherapy interventions at licensed doses for use in CHB. Search strategies comprised CHB disease and drug terms (a combination of controlled vocabulary and free text terms) and also a bespoke RCT filter.The NMA was undertaken in WinBUGs using fixed and random effects methods, using data obtained from a systematic review. Individual patient data (IPD) from an entecavir clinical trial were used to quantify the impact of different baseline characteristics (in particular undetectable viral load (UVL) at 1 year) on relative treatment effect. Study level mean baseline values from all identified studies were used. Results were generated for UVL and presented as relative risks (RRs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs) using entecavir as reference treatment. RESULTS: Overall, for all eight relevant interventions we identified 3,000 abstracts. Following full text review a total of 35 (including the contents of six clinical study reports) met the inclusion critera; 19 were in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients and 14 of the 19 contained outcome information of relevance to the NMA.Entecavir and tenofovir studies had heterogeneous patient populations in terms of BVL (mean values 9.29 and 8.65 log10 copies/ml respectively). After adjusting UVL for BVL using an informative prior based on the IPD analysis, the difference between entecavir and tenofovir was not statistically significant (RR 1.27, 95% CrI 0.96 to 1.47-fixed effects). A similar conclusion was found in all sensitivity analyses. Adjusted tenofovir results were more consistent with observed clinical trial response rates. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of adjusting for BVL when assessing the relative efficacy of CHB interventions in achieving UVL. This has implications for both clinical and economic decision making

Unsuccessful therapy with adefovir and entecavir-tenofovir in a patient with chronic hepatitis B infection with previous resistance to lamivudine: a fourteen-year evolution of hepatitis B virus mutations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Complex mutants can be selected under sequential selective pressure by HBV therapy. To determine hepatitis B virus genomic evolution during antiviral therapy we characterized the HBV quasi-species in a patient who did no respond to therapy following lamivudine breakthrough for a period of 14 years.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>The polymerase and precore/core genes were amplified and sequenced at determined intervals in a period of 14 years. HBV viral load and HBeAg/Anti-HBe serological profiles as well as amino transferase levels were also measured. A mixture of lamivudine-resistant genotype A2 HBV strains harboring the rtM204V mutation coexisted in the patient following viral breakthrough to lamivudine. The L180M+M204V dominant mutant displayed strong lamivudine-resistance. As therapy was changed to adefovir, then to entecavir, and finally to entecavir-tenofovir the viral load showed fluctuations but lamivudine-resistant strains continued to be selected, with minor contributions to the HBV quasi-species composition of additional resistance-associated mutations. At the end of the 14-year follow up period, high viral loads were predominant, with viral strains harboring the lamivudine-resistance signature rtL180M+M204V. The precore/core frame A1762T and G1764A double mutation was detected before treatment and remaining in this condition during the entire follow-up. Specific entecavir and tenofovir primary resistance-associated mutations were not detected at any time. Plasma concentrations of tenofovir indicated adequate metabolism of the drug.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We report the selection of HBV mutants carrying well-defined primary resistance mutations that escaped lamivudine in a fourteen-year follow-up period. With the exception of tenofovir resistance mutations, subsequent unselected primary resistance mutations were detected as minor populations into the HBV quasispecies composition during adefovir or entecavir monotherapies. Although tenofovir is considered an appropriate therapeutic alternative for the treatment of entecavir-unresponsive patients, its use was not effective in the case reported here.</p

PTEN transcript variants caused by illegitimate splicing in “aged” blood samples and EBV-transformed cell lines

PTEN is one of the most frequently mutated tumor suppressor genes in human cancers. Mutations occur in either heritable or sporadic fashion. Sequencing of cDNA from patients and normal individuals often reveals splicing variants (SVs) of PTEN, some of which are non-mutation related. To investigate whether these SVs were the result of illegitimate splicing (a general decrease of fidelity in splicing site selection in “aged” samples), we tested “aged” blood from individuals who had normal PTEN transcripts in their “fresh” mononuclear cells. Blood from 20 normal individuals was collected and split into two aliquots. Total RNA and DNA were extracted immediately (“fresh”) and 48 h later (“aged”), respectively. Using RT-PCR, subcloning and sequencing, we found seven types of SVs. No mutation was detected in the related intron–exon flanking region in genomic DNA in either “fresh” or “aged” samples. Some of the SVs were also consistently present in both the “fresh” and “aged” EBV-transformed lymphoblastoid cells from six normal individuals. Western blot data indicated that the PTEN protein level (in full length) was not altered in the “fresh” EBV-transformed lymphoblastoid cells with SVs. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that PTEN illegitimate splicing often occurs in “aged” blood and EBV-transformed lymphoblastoid cells. Therefore, it is critical to note the time point of RNA extraction when investigating for PTEN aberrant transcripts. We hope that our data will increase awareness about the sample status, because gene expression data may be potentially flawed from “aged” samples, particularly when dealing with clinical samples

Viral Resistance in Hepatitis B: Prevalence and Management

Hepatitis B is a DNA virus affecting hundreds of millions of individuals worldwide. As the clinical sequelae of cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are increasingly recognized to be related to viral levels, the impetus increases to offer treatment to those previously not treated. With the development of more robust antivirals with reasonable safety profiles, long-term treatment is becoming more common. The oral nucleos(t)ide analogs have become the preferred first-line therapies for most genotypes of hepatitis B. Five are now available, all with different potencies and resistance profiles. Long-term data spanning several years are now available for most compounds in this arena. This article focuses on the common natural variants and those secondary to nucleos(t)ide therapy, as well as diagnostic methods to detect resistance

Current Antiviral Therapy of Chronic Hepatitis B: Efficacy and Safety

The treatment of chronic hepatitis B is in constant evolution. Interferon, the first agent licensed for chronic hepatitis B treatment, has been superseded by the growing popularity of nucleoside/nucleotide analogues (NA). However, resistance to these agents is a major challenge. Newer NAs, such as entecavir and tenofovir dipivoxil fumarate, have very low resistance rates and favorable safety profiles. Long-term use of these agents can effectively suppress hepatitis B virus DNA, leading to decrease in incidence of hepatitic flares, as well as in the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The efficacy and safety of various antiviral agents is discussed in this review

Multiple primary malignancies and subtle mucocutaneous lesions associated with a novel PTEN gene mutation in a patient with Cowden syndrome: Case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cowden syndrome (CS) is a cancer predisposition syndrome associated with increased risk of breast, thyroid, and endometrial cancers, and is characterized by development of benign mucocutaneous lesions.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Here we report on a 58-year-old woman with multiple primary malignancies and subtle mucocutaneous lesions such as small polyps and wart-like papulas. Over a period of 23 years, she developed various malignant neoplasms including thyroid, ovarian, stomach, and colon carcinomas, and a benign meningioma. Direct sequencing analysis of the <it>PTEN </it>gene revealed a novel germline mutation (c.438delT, p.Leu146X).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This case demonstrates that Cowden syndrome is a multi-system disease that can result in the development of multiple malignant and benign tumors.</p