International demands for austerity: examining the impact of the IMF on the public sector

What effects do International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans have on borrow-ing countries? Even after decades of research, no consensus exists. We offer a straight-forward explanation for the seemingly mixed effects of IMF loans. We argue thatdifferent loans have different effects because of the varied conditions attached to IMFfinancing. To demonstrate this point, we investigate IMF loans with and withoutconditions that require public sector reforms in exchange for financing. We find thatthe addition of a public sector reform condition to a country’s IMF program signifi-cantly reduces government spending on the public sector wage bill. This evidencesuggest that conditions are a key mechanism linking IMF lending to policy outcomes.Although IMF loans with public sector conditions prompt cuts to the wage bill in theshort-term, these cuts do not persist in the longer-term. Borrowers backslide oninternationally mandated spending cuts in response to domestic political pressures

Out of the shadows or into the dark? Economic openness, IMF programs, and the growth of shadow economies

The existence of shadow economies is an important, yet understudied, issue for international political economy and development. This study examines how two distinct types of international economic engagement—economic openness and participation in International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs—affect the growth of shadow (informal) sectors. We theorize that increased economic openness will reduce the size of countries’ shadow sectors. More specifically, we posit that eliminating market-distorting trade barriers will decrease the incentives for shadow sector activities such as smuggling. Additionally, we posit that increased participation in global production and supply chains is likely to lead to a positive, “climb to the top” effect on states’ regulatory and labor policies that enhance the prospective benefits associated with formal sectors. Conversely, we argue that participation in IMF structural adjustment programs can lead to great shadow sector activity as IMF-imposed structural conditions might cause significant near-term economic hardship and degrade states’ regulatory capacity. The results from a panel of 145 countries from 1971 to 2012 indicate that economic openness reduces the size of the shadow economy, while participation in IMF programs is significantly related to a larger shadow economy. These findings have important implications for understanding how the divergent forms of international economic engagement might affect shadow economies