A motif-based approach to network epidemics

Networks have become an indispensable tool in modelling infectious diseases, with the structure of epidemiologically relevant contacts known to affect both the dynamics of the infection process and the efficacy of intervention strategies. One of the key reasons for this is the presence of clustering in contact networks, which is typically analysed in terms of prevalence of triangles in the network. We present a more general approach, based on the prevalence of different four-motifs, in the context of ODE approximations to network dynamics. This is shown to outperform existing models for a range of small world networks

Shift of percolation thresholds for epidemic spread between static and dynamic small-world networks

The aim of the study was to compare the epidemic spread on static and dynamic small-world networks. The network was constructed as a 2-dimensional Watts-Strogatz model (500x500 square lattice with additional shortcuts), and the dynamics involved rewiring shortcuts in every time step of the epidemic spread. The model of the epidemic is SIR with latency time of 3 time steps. The behaviour of the epidemic was checked over the range of shortcut probability per underlying bond 0-0.5. The quantity of interest was percolation threshold for the epidemic spread, for which numerical results were checked against an approximate analytical model. We find a significant lowering of percolation thresholds for the dynamic network in the parameter range given. The result shows that the behaviour of the epidemic on dynamic network is that of a static small world with the number of shortcuts increased by 20.7 +/- 1.4%, while the overall qualitative behaviour stays the same. We derive corrections to the analytical model which account for the effect. For both dynamic and static small-world we observe suppression of the average epidemic size dependence on network size in comparison with finite-size scaling known for regular lattice. We also study the effect of dynamics for several rewiring rates relative to latency time of the disease.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Steady-State Dynamics of the Forest Fire Model on Complex Networks

Many sociological networks, as well as biological and technological ones, can be represented in terms of complex networks with a heterogeneous connectivity pattern. Dynamical processes taking place on top of them can be very much influenced by this topological fact. In this paper we consider a paradigmatic model of non-equilibrium dynamics, namely the forest fire model, whose relevance lies in its capacity to represent several epidemic processes in a general parametrization. We study the behavior of this model in complex networks by developing the corresponding heterogeneous mean-field theory and solving it in its steady state. We provide exact and approximate expressions for homogeneous networks and several instances of heterogeneous networks. A comparison of our analytical results with extensive numerical simulations allows to draw the region of the parameter space in which heterogeneous mean-field theory provides an accurate description of the dynamics, and enlights the limits of validity of the mean-field theory in situations where dynamical correlations become important.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Signatures of small-world and scale-free properties in large computer programs

A large computer program is typically divided into many hundreds or even thousands of smaller units, whose logical connections define a network in a natural way. This network reflects the internal structure of the program, and defines the ``information flow'' within the program. We show that, (1) due to its growth in time this network displays a scale-free feature in that the probability of the number of links at a node obeys a power-law distribution, and (2) as a result of performance optimization of the program the network has a small-world structure. We believe that these features are generic for large computer programs. Our work extends the previous studies on growing networks, which have mostly been for physical networks, to the domain of computer software.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Animals, veterinarians and the sociology of diagnosis

While sociologists of medicine have focused their efforts on understanding human health, illness, and medicine, veterinary medical practice has not yet caught their attention in any sustained way. In this critical review paper, we use insights from the sociology of diagnosis literature to explore veterinary practice, and aim to demonstrate the importance of animals to sociological understandings of health, illness and disease. As in human medicine, our analysis shows the importance of diagnosis in creating and maintaining the power and authority of the veterinary professional. However, we then explore how diagnosis operates as a kind of dance, where professional authority can be challenged, particularly in light of the complex ethical responsibilities and clinical interactions that result from the triad of professional/owner/animal patient. Finally, we consider diagnosis via the precept of entanglement, and raise the intriguing possibility of interspecies health relations, whereby decision-making in human healthcare may be influenced by experiences in animal healthcare, and vice-versa. In our conclusion we argue that this analysis provides opportunities to scholars researching diagnosis in human healthcare, particularly around the impact of commercial drivers; has implications for veterinary and public health practitioners; and should help animate the emerging sociology of veterinary medicine

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Modern temporal network theory: A colloquium

The power of any kind of network approach lies in the ability to simplify a complex system so that one can better understand its function as a whole. Sometimes it is beneficial, however, to include more information than in a simple graph of only nodes and links. Adding information about times of interactions can make predictions and mechanistic understanding more accurate. The drawback, however, is that there are not so many methods available, partly because temporal networks is a relatively young field, partly because it more difficult to develop such methods compared to for static networks. In this colloquium, we review the methods to analyze and model temporal networks and processes taking place on them, focusing mainly on the last three years. This includes the spreading of infectious disease, opinions, rumors, in social networks; information packets in computer networks; various types of signaling in biology, and more. We also discuss future directions.Comment: Final accepted versio