Association between Receipt of a Medically Tailored Meal Program and Health Care Use

Importance: Recent US health care reforms incentivize improved population health outcomes and primary care functions. It remains unclear how much improving primary care physician supply can improve population health, independent of other health care and socioeconomic factors. Objectives: To identify primary care physician supply changes across US counties from 2005-2015 and associations between such changes and population mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This epidemiological study evaluated US population data and individual-level claims data linked to mortality from 2005 to 2015 against changes in primary care and specialist physician supply from 2005 to 2015. Data from 3142 US counties, 7144 primary care service areas, and 306 hospital referral regions were used to investigate the association of primary care physician supply with changes in life expectancy and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for health care, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral covariates. Analysis was performed from March to July 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized life expectancy, cause-specific mortality, and restricted mean survival time. Results: Primary care physician supply increased from 196014 physicians in 2005 to 204419 in 2015. Owing to disproportionate losses of primary care physicians in some counties and population increases, the mean (SD) density of primary care physicians relative to population size decreased from 46.6 per 100000 population (95% CI, 0.0-114.6 per 100000 population) to 41.4 per 100000 population (95% CI, 0.0-108.6 per 100000 population), with greater losses in rural areas. In adjusted mixed-effects regressions, every 10 additional primary care physicians per 100000 population was associated with a 51.5-day increase in life expectancy (95% CI, 29.5-73.5 days; 0.2% increase), whereas an increase in 10 specialist physicians per 100000 population corresponded to a 19.2-day increase (95% CI, 7.0-31.3 days). A total of 10 additional primary care physicians per 100000 population was associated with reduced cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality by 0.9% to 1.4%. Analyses at different geographic levels, using instrumental variable regressions, or at the individual level found similar benefits associated with primary care supply. Conclusions and Relevance: Greater primary care physician supply was associated with lower mortality, but per capita supply decreased between 2005 and 2015. Programs to explicitly direct more resources to primary care physician supply may be important for population health

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models

Characterization of miR-200 family members as blood biomarkers for human and laying hen ovarian cancer

MicroRNA-200 (miR-200) family is highly expressed in ovarian cancer. We evaluated the levels of family members relative to the internal control miR-103a in ovarian cancer and control blood specimens collected from American and Hong Kong Chinese institutions, as well as from a laying hen spontaneous ovarian cancer model. The levels of miR-200a, miR-200b and miR-200c were significantly elevated in all human cancer versus all control blood samples. Further analyses showed significantly higher miR-200 levels in Chinese control (except miR-429) and cancer (except miR-200a and miR141) samples than their respective American counterparts. Subtype-specific analysis showed that miR-200b had an overall elevated level in serous cancer compared with controls, whereas miR-429 was significantly elevated in clear cell and endometrioid cancer versus controls. MiR-429 was also significantly elevated in cancer versus control in laying hen plasma samples, consistent with the fact that endometrioid tumor is the prevalent type in this species. A neural network model consisting of miR-200a/200b/429/141 showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.904 for American ovarian cancer prediction, whereas a model consisting of miR-200b/200c/429/141 showed an AUC value of 0.901 for Chinese women. Hence, miR-200 is informative as blood biomarkers for both human and laying hen ovarian cancer. © 2020, The Author(s)

Serial dependence in ARCH-models as measured by tail dependence coefficients

Serial dependence in non-linear time series cannot always be reliably quantified using linear autocorrelation. We do a detailed study of serial dependence in an ARCH(1) process from the point of view of the lower tail dependence coefficient and certain generalisations thereof. Our results are relevant for estimating probabilities of consecutive value-at-risk violations in GARCH models