Socioeconomic inequalities in childhood exposure to secondhand smoke before and after smoke-free legislation in three UK countries

Background: Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is higher among lower socioeconomic status (SES) children. Legislation restricting smoking in public places has been associated with reduced childhood SHS exposure and increased smoke-free homes. This paper examines socioeconomic patterning in these changes.<p></p> Methods: Repeated cross-sectional survey of 10 867 schoolchildren in 304 primary schools in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Children provided saliva for cotinine assay, completing questionnaires before and 12 months after legislation.<p></p> Results: SHS exposure was highest, and private smoking restrictions least frequently reported, among lower SES children. Proportions of saliva samples containing <0.1 ng/ml (i.e. undetectable) cotinine increased from 31.0 to 41.0%. Although across the whole SES spectrum, there was no evidence of displacement of smoking into the home or increased SHS exposure, socioeconomic inequality in the likelihood of samples containing detectable levels of cotinine increased. Among children from the poorest families, 96.9% of post-legislation samples contained detectable cotinine, compared with 38.2% among the most affluent. Socioeconomic gradients at higher exposure levels remained unchanged. Among children from the poorest families, one in three samples contained > 3 ng/ml cotinine. Smoking restrictions in homes and cars increased, although socioeconomic patterning remained.<p></p> Conclusions Urgent action is needed to reduce inequalities in SHS exposure. Such action should include emphasis on reducing smoking in cars and homes

Space-Time Clustering and Correlations of Major Earthquakes

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PR

Reducing smoking in adolescents: cost-effectiveness results from the cluster randomized ASSIST (A Stop Smoking In Schools Trial)

Introduction: School-based smoking prevention programmes can be effective, but evidence on cost-effectiveness is lacking. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of a school-based “peer-led” intervention.<p></p> Methods: We evaluated the ASSIST (A Stop Smoking In Schools Trial) programme in a cluster randomized controlled trial. The ASSIST programme trained students to act as peer supporters during informal interactions to encourage their peers not to smoke. Fifty-nine secondary schools in England and Wales were randomized to receive the ASSIST programme or usual smoking education. Ten thousand seven hundred and thirty students aged 12–13 years attended participating schools. Previous work has demonstrated that the ASSIST programme achieved a 2.1% (95% CI = 0%–4.2%) reduction in smoking prevalence. We evaluated the public sector cost, prevalence of weekly smoking, and cost per additional student not smoking at 24 months.<p></p> Results: The ASSIST programme cost of £32 (95% CI = £29.70–£33.80) per student. The incremental cost per student not smoking at 2 years was £1,500 (95% CI = £669–£9,947). Students in intervention schools were less likely to believe that they would be a smoker at age 16 years (odds ratio [OR] = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.66–0.96).<p></p> Conclusions: A peer-led intervention reduced smoking among adolescents at a modest cost. The intervention is cost-effective under realistic assumptions regarding the extent to which reductions in adolescent smoking lead to lower smoking prevalence and/or earlier smoking cessation in adulthood. The annual cost of extending the intervention to Year 8 students in all U.K. schools would be in the region of £38 million and could result in 20,400 fewer adolescent smokers.<p></p&gt

Murine leukaemia virus expression in the AKR following thymectomy.

Thymectomy effectively prevents the development of spontaneous lymphoma in the AKR but how this effect is achieved remains to be determined. One possible mechanism, namely suppression of genomic expression of the oncogenic murine leukaemia virus now seems unlikely since levels of the group specific MuLV antigen were in comparision with their sham operated controls unaltered in both neonatally and adult thymectomized AKR

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

International audienceIt is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world

Pattern Informatics and Its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m >= 5) earthquakes for the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m >= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecasted map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with m >= 5.0. We find that these events occurred in a forecasted area in the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.Comment: 36 pages, 6 figures, 1 tabl

Feasibility of Formation of Ge1-x-y Six Sny Layers With High Sn Concentration via Ion Implantation

By increasing the Sn concentration in Ge1-ySny and Ge1-x-ySixSny systems, these materials can be tuned from indirect to direct bandgap along with increasing electronic and photonic properties. Efforts have been made to synthesize Sn-Ge and Ge-Si-Sn structures and layers to produce lower energy direct bandgap materials. Due to low solid solubility of Sn in Ge and Si-Ge layers, high concentrations of Sn are not achieved by traditional synthesis processes such as chemical vapor deposition or molecular beam epitaxy. Implantation of Sn into Si-Ge systems, followed by rapid thermal annealing or pulse laser annealing, is shown to be an attractive technique for increasing Sn concentration, which can increase efficiencies in photovoltaic applications. In this paper, dynamic ion-solid simulation results are presented. Simulations were performed to determine optimal beam energy, implantation order, and fluence for a multi-step, ion-implantation based synthesis process

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances

MACiE: a database of enzyme reaction mechanisms.

SUMMARY: MACiE (mechanism, annotation and classification in enzymes) is a publicly available web-based database, held in CMLReact (an XML application), that aims to help our understanding of the evolution of enzyme catalytic mechanisms and also to create a classification system which reflects the actual chemical mechanism (catalytic steps) of an enzyme reaction, not only the overall reaction. AVAILABILITY: http://www-mitchell.ch.cam.ac.uk/macie/.EPSRC (G.L.H. and J.B.O.M.), the BBSRC (G.J.B. and J.M.T.—CASE studentship in association with Roche Products Ltd; N.M.O.B. and J.B.O.M.—grant BB/C51320X/1), the Chilean Government’s Ministerio de Planificacio´n y Cooperacio´n and Cambridge Overseas Trust (D.E.A.) for funding and Unilever for supporting the Centre for Molecular Science Informatics.application note restricted to 2 printed pages web site: http://www-mitchell.ch.cam.ac.uk/macie

Elastic-plastic failure analysis of pressure burst tests of thin toroidal shells

This paper provides a comparison between test and analysis results for bursting of thin toroidal shells. Testing was done by pressurizing two toroidal shells until failure by bursting. An analytical criterion for bursting is developed based on good agreement between structural instability predicted by large strain-large displacement elastic-plastic finite element analysis and observed burst pressure obtained from test. The failures were characterized by loss of local stability of the membrane section of the shells consistent with the predictions from the finite element analysis. Good agreement between measured and predicted burst pressure suggests that incipient structural instability as calculated by an elastic-plastic finite element analysis is a reasonable way to calculate the bursting pressure of thin membrane structures