Sequential equilibrium in monotone games: theory-based analysis of experimental data

A monotone game is an extensive-form game with complete information, simultaneous moves and an irreversibility structure on strategies. It captures a variety of situations in which players make partial commitments and allows us to characterize conditions under which equilibria result in socially desirable outcomes. However, since the game has many equilibrium outcomes, the theory lacks predictive power. To produce stronger predictions, one can restrict attention to the set of sequential equilibria, or Markov equilibria, or symmetric equilibria, or pure-strategy equilibria. This paper explores the relationship between equilibrium behavior in a class of monotone games, namely voluntary contribution games, and the behavior of human subjects in an experimental setting. We find evidence of both pure- and mixed-strategy equilibria and several key features of the symmetric Markov perfect equilibrium (SMPE) in the data. To judge how well the SMPE fits the data, we estimate a model of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) (McKelvey and Palfrey 1995, 1998) and find that the decision rules of the QRE model are qualitatively very similar to the empirical choice probabilities

Network architecture, salience and coordination

This paper reports the results of an experimental investigation of monotone games with imperfect information. Players are located at the nodes of a network and observe the actions of other players only if they are connected by the network. These games have many sequential equilibria; nonetheless, the behavior of subjects in the laboratory is predictable. The network architecture makes some strategies salient and this in turn makes the subjects’ behavior predictable and facilitates coordination on efficient outcomes. In some cases, modal behavior corresponds to equilibrium strategies

A review of duodenal metastases from squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix presenting as an upper gastrointestinal bleed

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding due to duodenal metastases is extremely uncommon. Extra-pelvic spread of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix to the small bowel is rare with only 6 reported cases in the English literature since 1981(PubMed, Medline)

A Prediction Model to Prioritize Individuals for a SARS-CoV-2 Test Built from National Symptom Surveys

Background: The gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis is detection of viral RNA through PCR. Due to global limitations in testing capacity, effective prioritization of individuals for testing is essential. Methods: We devised a model estimating the probability of an individual to test positive for COVID-19 based on answers to 9 simple questions that have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our model was devised from a subsample of a national symptom survey that was answered over 2 million times in Israel in its first 2 months and a targeted survey distributed to all residents of several cities in Israel. Overall, 43,752 adults were included, from which 498 self-reported as being COVID-19 positive. Findings: Our model was validated on a held-out set of individuals from Israel where it achieved an auROC of 0.737 (CI: 0.712–0.759) and auPR of 0.144 (CI: 0.119–0.177) and demonstrated its applicability outside of Israel in an independently collected symptom survey dataset from the US, UK, and Sweden. Our analyses revealed interactions between several symptoms and age, suggesting variation in the clinical manifestation of the disease in different age groups. Conclusions: Our tool can be used online and without exposure to suspected patients, thus suggesting worldwide utility in combating COVID-19 by better directing the limited testing resources through prioritization of individuals for testing, thereby increasing the rate at which positive individuals can be identified. Moreover, individuals at high risk for a positive test result can be isolated prior to testing. Funding: E.S. is supported by the Crown Human Genome Center, Larson Charitable Foundation New Scientist Fund, Else Kroener Fresenius Foundation, White Rose International Foundation, Ben B. and Joyce E. Eisenberg Foundation, Nissenbaum Family, Marcos Pinheiro de Andrade and Vanessa Buchheim, Lady Michelle Michels, and Aliza Moussaieff and grants funded by the Minerva foundation with funding from the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research and by the European Research Council and the Israel Science Foundation. H.R. is supported by the Israeli Council for Higher Education (CHE) via the Weizmann Data Science Research Center and by a research grant from Madame Olga Klein – Astrachan

Detection of Prion Protein in Urine-Derived Injectable Fertility Products by a Targeted Proteomic Approach

BACKGROUND: Iatrogenic transmission of human prion disease can occur through medical or surgical procedures, including injection of hormones such as gonadotropins extracted from cadaver pituitaries. Annually, more than 300,000 women in the United States and Canada are prescribed urine-derived gonadotropins for infertility. Although menopausal urine donors are screened for symptomatic neurological disease, incubation of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is impossible to exclude by non-invasive testing. Risk of carrier status of variant CJD (vCJD), a disease associated with decades-long peripheral incubation, is estimated to be on the order of 100 per million population in the United Kingdom. Studies showing infectious prions in the urine of experimental animals with and without renal disease suggest that prions could be present in asymptomatic urine donors. Several human fertility products are derived from donated urine; recently prion protein has been detected in preparations of human menopausal gonadotropin (hMG). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a classical proteomic approach, 33 and 34 non-gonadotropin proteins were identified in urinary human chorionic gonadotropin (u-hCG) and highly-purified urinary human menopausal gonadotropin (hMG-HP) products, respectively. Prion protein was identified as a major contaminant in u-hCG preparations for the first time. An advanced prion protein targeted proteomic approach was subsequently used to conduct a survey of gonadotropin products; this approach detected human prion protein peptides in urine-derived injectable fertility products containing hCG, hMG and hMG-HP, but not in recombinant products. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The presence of protease-sensitive prion protein in urinary-derived injectable fertility products containing hCG, hMG, and hMG-HP suggests that prions may co-purify in these products. Intramuscular injection is a relatively efficient route of transmission of human prion disease, and young women exposed to prions can be expected to survive an incubation period associated with a minimal inoculum. The risks of urine-derived fertility products could now outweigh their benefits, particularly considering the availability of recombinant products

Experienced stressors and coping strategies among Iranian nursing students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>College students are prone to stress due to the transitional nature of college life. High levels of stress are believed to affect students' health and academic functions. If the stress is not dealt with effectively, feelings of loneliness, nervousness, sleeplessness and worrying may result. Effective coping strategies facilitate the return to a balanced state, reducing the negative effects of stress.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This descriptive cross-sectional study was performed to determine sources of stress and coping strategies in nursing students studying at the Iran Faculty of Nursing & Midwifery. All undergraduate nursing students enrolled in years 1-4 during academic year 2004-2005 were included in this study, with a total of 366 questionnaires fully completed by the students. The Student Stress Survey and the Adolescent Coping Orientation for Problem Experiences Inventory (ACOPE) were used for data collection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most students reported "finding new friends" (76.2%), "working with people they did not know" (63.4%) as interpersonal sources of stress, "new responsibilities" (72.1%), "started college" (65.8%) as intrapersonal sources of stress more than others. The most frequent academic source of stress was "increased class workload" (66.9%) and the most frequent environmental sources of stress were being "placed in unfamiliar situations" (64.2%) and "waiting in long lines" (60.4%). Interpersonal and environmental sources of stress were reported more frequently than intrapersonal and academic sources. Mean interpersonal (P=0.04) and environmental (P=0.04) sources of stress were significantly greater in first year than in fourth year students. Among coping strategies in 12 areas, the family problem solving strategies, "trying to reason with parents and compromise" (73%) and "going along with family rules" (68%) were used "often or always" by most students. To cope with engaging in demanding activity, students often or always used "trying to figure out how to deal with problems" (66.4%) and "trying to improve themselves" (64.5%). The self-reliance strategy, "trying to make their own decisions" (62%); the social support strategies, "apologizing to people" (59.6%), "trying to help other people solve their problems" (56.3%), and "trying to keep up friendships or make new friends" (54.4%); the spiritual strategy, "praying" (65.8%); the seeking diversions strategy, "listening to music" (57.7%), the relaxing strategy "day dreaming" (52.5%), and the effort to "be close with someone cares about you" (50.5%) were each used "often or always" by a majority of students. Most students reported that the avoiding strategies "smoking" (93.7%) and "drinking beer or wine" (92.9%), the ventilating strategies "saying mean things to people" and "swearing" (85.8%), the professional support strategies "getting professional counseling" (74.6%) and "talking to a teacher or counselor" (67.2%) and the humorous strategy "joking and keeping a sense of humor" (51.9%) were used "seldom or never".</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>First year nursing students are exposed to a variety of stressors. Establishing a student support system during the first year and improving it throughout nursing school is necessary to equip nursing students with effective coping skills. Efforts should include counseling helpers and their teachers, strategies that can be called upon in these students' future nursing careers.</p

Detection of Prion Protein in Urine-Derived Injectable Fertility Products by a Targeted Proteomic Approach

BACKGROUND: Iatrogenic transmission of human prion disease can occur through medical or surgical procedures, including injection of hormones such as gonadotropins extracted from cadaver pituitaries. Annually, more than 300,000 women in the United States and Canada are prescribed urine-derived gonadotropins for infertility. Although menopausal urine donors are screened for symptomatic neurological disease, incubation of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is impossible to exclude by non-invasive testing. Risk of carrier status of variant CJD (vCJD), a disease associated with decades-long peripheral incubation, is estimated to be on the order of 100 per million population in the United Kingdom. Studies showing infectious prions in the urine of experimental animals with and without renal disease suggest that prions could be present in asymptomatic urine donors. Several human fertility products are derived from donated urine; recently prion protein has been detected in preparations of human menopausal gonadotropin (hMG). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a classical proteomic approach, 33 and 34 non-gonadotropin proteins were identified in urinary human chorionic gonadotropin (u-hCG) and highly-purified urinary human menopausal gonadotropin (hMG-HP) products, respectively. Prion protein was identified as a major contaminant in u-hCG preparations for the first time. An advanced prion protein targeted proteomic approach was subsequently used to conduct a survey of gonadotropin products; this approach detected human prion protein peptides in urine-derived injectable fertility products containing hCG, hMG and hMG-HP, but not in recombinant products. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The presence of protease-sensitive prion protein in urinary-derived injectable fertility products containing hCG, hMG, and hMG-HP suggests that prions may co-purify in these products. Intramuscular injection is a relatively efficient route of transmission of human prion disease, and young women exposed to prions can be expected to survive an incubation period associated with a minimal inoculum. The risks of urine-derived fertility products could now outweigh their benefits, particularly considering the availability of recombinant products

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Risks of Abnormal Serum Alanine Aminotransferase in Hispanics: A Population-Based Study

Study the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and risk factors for and association with elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as markers of hepatic injury in a large Hispanic health disparity cohort with high rates of obesity.Analysis of data from a prospective cross-sectional population based study. From 2004-7, we randomly recruited 2000 community participants to the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort collecting extensive socioeconomic, clinical and laboratory data. We excluded 153 subjects due to critical missing data. Pearson chi-square tests and Student's t-tests were used for categorical and continuous variable analysis, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the risk factors for elevated ALT.The mean age of the cohort was 45 years and 67% were females. The majority of the cohort was either overweight (32.4%) or obese (50.7%). Almost half (43.7%) had MS and nearly one-third diabetes. Elevated ALT level was more prevalent in males than females. Obesity was a strong risk for abnormal ALT in both genders. Hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia and young age were risks for elevated ALT in males only, whereas increased fasting plasma glucose was associated with elevated ALT in females only.We identified high prevalence of MS and markers of liver injury in this large Mexican American cohort with gender differences in prevalence and risk factors, with younger males at greatest risk

Hybrid Meta-heuristics with VNS and Exact Methods: Application to Large Unconditional and Conditional Vertex p-Centre Problems

Large-scale unconditional and conditional vertex p-centre problems are solved using two meta-heuristics. One is based on a three-stage approach whereas the other relies on a guided multi-start principle. Both methods incorporate Variable Neighbourhood Search, exact method, and aggregation techniques. The methods are assessed on the TSP dataset which consist of up to 71,009 demand points with p varying from 5 to 100. To the best of our knowledge, these are the largest instances solved for unconditional and conditional vertex p-centre problems. The two proposed meta-heuristics yield competitive results for both classes of problems