Decision-Theoretic Foundations for Causal Reasoning

We present a definition of cause and effect in terms of decision-theoretic primitives and thereby provide a principled foundation for causal reasoning. Our definition departs from the traditional view of causation in that causal assertions may vary with the set of decisions available. We argue that this approach provides added clarity to the notion of cause. Also in this paper, we examine the encoding of causal relationships in directed acyclic graphs. We describe a special class of influence diagrams, those in canonical form, and show its relationship to Pearl's representation of cause and effect. Finally, we show how canonical form facilitates counterfactual reasoning.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

(Semi-)Predictive Discretization During Model Selection

In this paper, we present an approach to discretizing multivariate continuous data while learning the structure of a graphical model. We derive the joint scoring function from the principle of predictive accuracy, which inherently ensures the optimal trade-off between goodness of fit and model complexity (including the number of discretization levels). Using the so-called finest grid implied by the data, our scoring function depends only on the number of data points in the various discretization levels. Not only can it be computed efficiently, but it is also independent of the metric used in the continuous space. Our experiments with gene expression data show that discretization plays a crucial role regarding the resulting network structure

An automatic visual analysis system for tennis

This article presents a novel video analysis system for coaching tennis players of all levels, which uses computer vision algorithms to automatically edit and index tennis videos into meaningful annotations. Existing tennis coaching software lacks the ability to automatically index a tennis match into key events, and therefore, a coach who uses existing software is burdened with time-consuming manual video editing. This work aims to explore the effectiveness of a system to automatically detect tennis events. A secondary aim of this work is to explore the bene- fits coaches experience in using an event retrieval system to retrieve the automatically indexed events. It was found that automatic event detection can significantly improve the experience of using video feedback as part of an instructional coaching session. In addition to the automatic detection of key tennis events, player and ball movements are automati- cally tracked throughout an entire match and this wealth of data allows users to find interesting patterns in play. Player and ball movement information are integrated with the automatically detected tennis events, and coaches can query the data to retrieve relevant key points during a match or analyse player patterns that need attention. This coaching software system allows coaches to build advanced queries, which cannot be facilitated with existing video coaching solutions, without tedious manual indexing. This article proves that the event detection algorithms in this work can detect the main events in tennis with an average precision and recall of 0.84 and 0.86, respectively, and can typically eliminate man- ual indexing of key tennis events

Accurate Liability Estimation Improves Power in Ascertained Case Control Studies

Linear mixed models (LMMs) have emerged as the method of choice for confounded genome-wide association studies. However, the performance of LMMs in non-randomly ascertained case-control studies deteriorates with increasing sample size. We propose a framework called LEAP (Liability Estimator As a Phenotype, https://github.com/omerwe/LEAP) that tests for association with estimated latent values corresponding to severity of phenotype, and demonstrate that this can lead to a substantial power increase

P09-11. Reduced Replication Capacity of NL4-3 Chimeric Viruses Encoding RT-Integrase Sequences from HIV-1 Elite Controllers

Background: Spontaneous control of HIV to 0.05). Viruses derived from HLA-B57+ EC (N = 20) appeared to replicate slower than those from B57+ progressors (N = 8) (p = 0.004). Similar results were observed between B51+ EC (N = 4) and B51+ progressors (N = 10) (p = 0.024), but not between B27+ EC (N = 9) and B27+ progressors (N = 5) (p = 0.437). Conclusion: This study extends previous observations for Gag and demonstrates that Pol variants from EC also display reduced function. The association between fitness and expression of certain HLA that present Pol epitopes suggests that immune-mediated mutations impairing viral fitness may play a key role in spontaneous control of HIV. Results indicate that HLA alleles responsible for such defects in protein function may differ among viral genes. Further identification of HLA-associated changes in HIV may allow design of vaccines targeting the most vulnerable regions of the virus.Version of Recor

Comparison between Suitable Priors for Additive Bayesian Networks

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial importance. If an inadequate prior - like a too weakly informative one - is used, data separation and data sparsity lead to issues in the model selection process. In this work a simulation study between two weakly and a strongly informative priors is presented. As weakly informative prior we use a zero mean Gaussian prior with a large variance, currently implemented in the R-package abn. The second prior belongs to the Student's t-distribution, specifically designed for logistic regressions and, finally, the strongly informative prior is again Gaussian with mean equal to true parameter value and a small variance. We compare the impact of these priors on the accuracy of the learned additive Bayesian network in function of different parameters. We create a simulation study to illustrate Lindley's paradox based on the prior choice. We then conclude by highlighting the good performance of the informative Student's t-prior and the limited impact of the Lindley's paradox. Finally, suggestions for further developments are provided.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure