Cardiovascular disease risk prediction in sub-Saharan African populations - Comparative analysis of risk algorithms in the RODAM study

Background: Validated absolute risk equations are currently recommended as the basis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in prevention and control strategies. However, there is no consensus on appropriate equations for sub-Saharan African populations. We assessed agreement between different cardiovascular risk equations among Ghanaian migrant and home populations with no overt CVD. Methods: The 10-year CVD risks were calculated for 3586 participants aged 40–70 years in the multi-centre RODAM study among Ghanaians residing in Ghana and Europe using the Framingham laboratory and nonlaboratory and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) algorithms. Participants were classified as low, moderate or high risk, corresponding to b10%, 10–20% and N20% respectively. Agreement between the risk algorithms was assessed using kappa and correlation coefficients. Results: 19.4%, 12.3% and 5.8% were ranked as high 10-year CVD risk by Framingham non-laboratory, Framingham laboratory and PCE, respectively. The median (25th–75th percentiles) estimated 10-year CVD risk was 9.5% (5.4–15.7), 7.3% (3.9–13.2) and 5.0% (2.3–9.7) for Framingham non-laboratory, Framingham laboratory and PCE, respectively. The concordance between PCE and Framingham non-laboratory was better in the home Ghanaian population (kappa = 0.42, r = 0.738) than the migrant population (kappa = 0.24, r = 0.732) whereas concordance between PCE and Framingham laboratory was better in migrant Ghanaians (kappa = 0.54, r = 0.769) than the home population (kappa = 0.51, r = 0.758). Conclusion: CVD prediction with the same algorithm differs for the migrant and home populations and the interchangeability of Framingham laboratory and non-laboratory algorithms is limited. Validation against CVD outcomes is needed to inform appropriate selection of risk algorithms for use in African ancestry populations

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

© 2016 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Rural and urban migration to Europe in relation to cardiovascular disease risk: does it matter where you migrate from?

Objectives: To assess whether the environmental context (i.e. rural vs urban) in which individuals in low- and middle-income countries have resided most of their lives is associated with estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk after migration to a high-income country. Study design: Data from the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) study were used including 1699 Ghanaian participants aged 40–79 years who had migrated to Europe from Ghana (1549 of urban origin, 150 of rural origin). Methods: Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using the Pooled Cohort Equation, with estimates ≥7.5% defining elevated CVD risk. Comparisons between urban and rural origin migrant groups were made using proportions and adjusted odds ratios (ORs). Results: The proportion of migrants with an elevated CVD-risk score was substantially higher among rural migrants than among urban migrants (45% vs. 37%, OR = 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03–2.02), which persisted after adjustment for education level, site of residence in Europe (London, Amsterdam or Berlin), length of stay in Europe, physical activity, energy intake and alcohol consumption (OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.05–2.67). Conclusion: Our findings indicate that migrants who spent most of their lives in a rural setting before migration to Europe may have a higher CVD risk than those of urban origins. Further work is needed to confirm these findings in other migrant populations and to unravel the mechanisms driving the differential CVD risk between urban and rural migrants

Early-life exposures and cardiovascular disease risk among Ghanaian migrant and home populations: the RODAM study

Early-life environmental and nutritional exposures are considered to contribute to the differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden. Among sub-Saharan African populations, the association between markers of early-life exposures such as leg length and sitting height and CVD risk is yet to be investigated. This study assessed the association between leg length, sitting height, and estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk among Ghanaian-born populations in Europe and Ghana. We constructed sex-specific quintiles for sitting height and leg length for 3250 participants aged 40-70 years (mean age 52 years; men 39.6%; women 60.4%) in the cross-sectional multicenter Research on Diabetes and Obesity among African Migrants study. Ten-year risk of ASCVD was estimated using the Pooled Cohort Equations; risk ≥7.5% was defined as "elevated" CVD risk. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated to determine the associations between sitting height, leg length, and estimated 10-year ASCVD risk. For both men and women, mean sitting height and leg length were highest in Europe and lowest in rural Ghana. Sitting height was inversely associated with 10-year ASCVD risk among all women (PR for 1 standard deviation increase of sitting height: 0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.85). Among men, an inverse association between sitting height and 10-year ASCVD risk was significant on adjustment for study site, adult, and parental education but attenuated when further adjusted for height. No association was found between leg length and estimated 10-year ASCVD risk. Early-life and childhood exposures that influence sitting height could be the important determinants of ASCVD risk in this adult population