EL CAMBIO CLIMATICO Y SU PROYECCIÓN SOBRE EL NIVEL DEL MAR EN LA COSTA DEL PACÍFICO DE PANAMÁ

In order to predict the future sea level increase in the Pacific coast of Panama, the monthly data on sea level of Balboa (Republic of Panamá) from 1909 to 1998 has been examined to define the trend and the rise of the sea-level of the past century. In addition, the data from Balboa has been divided into five periods of twenty years each to be able to estimate the expected rate of change of the trend and total rise of the sea-level by the end of the current century. The sea-level at Balboa has risen about 20 centimeters in the past 100 years. But moreover, the rate of change for Balboa sea –level has constantly increased for each 20 years period indicating 1.70 cm at the beginning of the past century, while gradually increasing to nearly 8 cm at the end of the XX century. Predictions are made that this trend is likely to cause above a 50 cm sea level increase by the end of the XXI century. The global mean sea level has risen globally more than 15 centimeters in the past 100 years, and the climate change is expected to cause a further rise of about 30 centimeters by the year 2050. This warming would cause the sea to rise in two ways: through thermal expansion of ocean water and through discharges of freshwater from melting ice caps and mountain glaciers.  Para poder proyectar el aumento del nivel del mar en Panamá para el final del siglo XXI, se procesó información, de más de noventa años de datos mensuales, del nivel del mar registrado diariamente en el Puerto de Balboa entre 1909 y 1998. Se determinaron las tendencias y las regresiones para este período. En adición, se calcularon las tendencias de anomalías mensuales del nivel del mar a intervalos de veinte años, hasta el presente, para el Puerto de Balboa (Pacífico). Los resultados revelan que el aumento del nivel del mar durante el siglo XX fue de aproximadamente 20 cm para el Pacífico (Puerto de Balboa). Mas aún, el análisis estadístico indica que para la costa pacífica de Panamá el aumento de nivel del mar para cada período de veinte años fue cada vez mayor, variando desde 1.70 cm en los primeros veinte años (1909-1929), hasta cerca de 8 cm en los últimos diez años (1988-1999). Como conclusión, el análisis estadístico proyecta el aumento del nivel del mar en la costa pacifica de Panamá en más de cincuenta centímetros, desde el presente hasta el final del siglo XXI. En la escala global el aumento del volumen de agua de los océanos debido al calentamiento climático fue más de 15 cm en los últimos cien años. Se predice que el cambio climático causará un aumento del nivel del mar de cerca 30 cm para el año 2050, debido al deshielo de los glaciales y por la expansión térmica de la capa superficial del océano

Risk of Climate-Related Impacts on Global Rangelands – A Review and Modelling Study

Climate change threatens the ability of global rangelands to provide food, support livelihoods and deliver important ecosystems services. The extent and magnitude of potential impacts are however poorly understood. In this study, we review the risk of climate impacts along the rangeland systems food supply chain. We also present results from biophysical modelling simulations and spatial data analyses to identify where and to what extent rangelands may be at climatic risk. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on rangeland production systems is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from feed and animal production to processing, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. Regarding grazing biomass production, this study finds that mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (-4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. The potentially most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production (i.e., simultaneous decreases in mean biomass and increases in inter-annual variability) are projected to occur in rangeland communities that are currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities). Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to build on robust methods of designing, implementing and evaluating detailed development pathways, and account for a wide range of possible futures

Application of Multi-Commodity Partial Equilibrium Model to Quantify the Welfare Benefits of Research

Most of the research evaluation and priority setting studies in the past are not likely to incorporate the cross-commodity effects in the estimation of welfare benefits since the cross-price elasticities are often unavailable and cross-commodity spillovers of technologies may be difficult to estimate. This paper also illustrates how the multi-commodity framework is suitable in addressing longer term trends in quantifying future welfare gains and their implications for resource allocation for dryland crops namely sorghum and groundnuts. To address these gaps, this paper will highlight the application of multi-commodity partial equilibrium model called International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate the welfare benefits of sorghum and groundnuts research. The modelling framework also integrates crop modelling suite, hydrology model, climate models and welfare analysis. This model will endogenously estimate the changes in the production, consumption and prices due to adoption of new productivity enhancing technologies and also estimate the changes in the other commodities demand, supply and prices through cross price elasticities effects

Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantified using the IMPACT and GLOBIOM models. The scenarios were used in a number of policy design processes at national and regional levels. The model results show that investment in agriculture is essential to close yield gaps needed for growing demand, and that increases in production costs increases these yield gaps. However, even under high agricultural investments, regional production is unlikely to meet regional demand. In many cases, the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios are more impactful than climate effects on yields. Increased yields can lead to crop area expansion, and the protection and enforcement of forests and biodiversity is essential, especially with increased investment in agriculture. The CCAFS scenarios process show the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem functions. Decision-makers need to understand these trade-offs in order to better balance different demands on land and resources. There is an urgent need for spatially explicit information and analyses on the effects of different trajectories of human-induced landscape change in biodiversity and ecosystem services. We assess the potential implications of a set of plausible socio-economic and climate scenarios for agricultural production and demand and model-associated land use and land cover changes between 2005 and 2050 to assess potential impacts on biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. We show that different future socio-economic scenarios are consistent in their projections of areas of high agricultural development leading to similar spatial patterns of habitat and biodiversity loss. Yet, we also show that without protected areas, biodiversity losses are higher and that expanding protected areas to include other important biodiversity areas can help reduce biodiversity losses in all three countries. These results highlight the need for effective protection and the potential benefits of expanding the protected area network while meeting agricultural production needs

Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that development and release of drought tolerant sorghum in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition

US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2050. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. Our scenarios of the impact of climate change on food security through 2050 for internationally traded crops show that climate change does not threaten near-term US food security due to the availability of adaptation strategies. However, as climate continues to change beyond 2050 current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios for higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in projections of future precipitation is a limitation to impact studies

Thinking big for smallholder agriculture: realizing agricultural potentials in changing times

Recent advances in approaches to quantitative strategic foresight have enabled new insights into understanding potential futures of the agriculture sector. Quantitative foresight approaches facilitate understanding of different plausible scenarios, especially as related to both endogenous and exogenous factors (e.g., global markets and climate change). These approaches tend to be macroeconomic in nature and resolve trends relative to coarse-grained drivers. In order translate these outputs into strategies that realistically benefit producers across scale, finer resolution and context specific understanding is needed. This paper offers perspective on how foresight analysis can be combined with more pointed assessment of the specific policies, institutions and market requirements needed create more inclusive agricultural investment strategies

EL AFLORAMIENTO COSTERO Y EL FENÓMENO DE EL NIÑO: IMPLICACIONES SOBRE LOS RECURSOS BIOLÓGICOS DEL PACIFICO DE PANAMÁ

The Panamanian Pacific is under the influence of natural environmental changes, such as the coastal upwelling and manifestation of El Niño. These events can have severe implications for the biological resources. In this study we characterized the hydrological changes in the Gulf of Panama as related to their seasonality and annual variability. The intensity of the upwelling was assessed using sea surface temperature data. We also evaluated the coral genetic diversity for the coral Pocillopora damicornis. There were obvious changes in the hydrological and biological parameters monitored in the Gulf of Panama as result of the upwelling. The historical analysis of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama indicated that the upwelling occurs in pulses related to sea surface temperatures. In conclusion, sea surface temperature is the best quantitative estimate of upwelling intensity in the Gulf of Panama. The electrophoretic analysis of isozymes in the coral Pocillopora damicornis in Panama suggest the existence of a wider genetic diversity in the thermically stable water of the Gulf of Chiriquí and in areas of moderate upwelling such as Iguana Island in the Gulf of Panama. This contrast with the limited genotypic diversity found in areas of strong upwelling such as the Pearl Islands and the Panama Bay.  La costa del Pacífico panameño está bajo la influencia de cambios ambientales naturales, como el afloramiento costero y las manifestaciones del fenómeno de El Niño, que tienen implicaciones sobre los recursos biológicos. Durante este estudio se caracterizaron las variaciones hidrológicas estacionales e interanuales en el Golfo de Panamá, se estimó la intensidad del afloramiento utilizando los datos de la temperatura superficial del mar y se evaluó preliminarmente la diversidad genotípica de los corales. Se observaron cambios notables en la calidad del agua en el Golfo de Panamá como consecuencia del afloramiento. El análisis histórico de los afloramientos en el Golfo de Panamá indica que éstos son pulsativos y con más de dos períodos y asociados a las temperaturas superficiales del mar. La temperatura representa el mejor estimado cuantitativo de la intensidad de afloramiento periódico en el Golfo de Panamá. El análisis electroforético de las isoenzimas del coral Pocillopora damicornis en Panamá sugiere la existencia de una amplia diversidad genética en las áreas térmicamente estables del Golfo de Chiriquí y en áreas de afloramiento moderado como Isla Iguana en el Golfo de Panamá. Lo anterior contrasta con la limitada diversidad de genotipos que tiene la especie en las áreas con fuerte influencia del afloramiento, como en el Archipiélago de Las Perlas y en las islas de la Bahía de Panamá