The politicisation of transatlantic trade in Europe: Explaining inconsistent preferences regarding free trade and the TTIP. LEQS Paper No. 151/2019 January 2020

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) generated an unprecedented public contestation across Europe. In this paper, we focus on the sources of such backlash in European public opinion. Previous studies of this issue have analysed opinions on free trade and the specific agreement separately. However, not accounting for their correlated character could lead to biased conclusions about their determinants. To address this, we apply an innovative empirical approach and construct a set of bivariate probit models to calculate joint probabilities for the different configurations of support and opposition. We validate that attitudes toward free trade and the TTIP have similar but not identical foundations. Inconsistent preferences are rooted in individual values, EU attitudes, and political cues, as well as treaty partner heuristics. Our innovative empirical approach offers an improved understanding of trade attitudes within EU’s multilevel context

Fricciones en el comercio interregional: una aproximación basada en datos municipales

Estudios recientes muestran que el efecto frontera, que enfatiza el impacto negativo de la distancia en los flujos de comercio internacional, surge de un error metodológico al utilizar la variable distancia, ya que al desagregar dicha variable no presenta efectos significativos. Bajo este contexto, utilizamos microdatos de los cargamentos distribuidos por tierra dentro de España durante el periodo 2003-2007, desagregamos los flujos de comercio municipal en un margen intensivo y extensivo y utilizamos diferentes medidas de costos de transporte, distancia geográfica y tiempo de traslado. Observamos que al considerar flujos comerciales detallados, el margen extensivo se incrementa en el tiempo mientras que el número de cargamentos disminuye conforme aumentan la distancia y el tiempo, lo anterior comparado con el valor promedio de dichos cargamentos (margen intensivo). En contraste con estudios previos, encontramos que la diferencia entre el margen intensivo y extensivo es mínima cuando se considera el tiempo en lugar de la distancia, lo cual también impacta en el valor total del comercio dentro de una misma municipalidad, ya que este resulta más importante. Finalmente, encontramos diversos efectos de las fronteras regionales en ambos márgenes, ya que tanto las provincias como las comunidades autónomas no impactan considerablemente en el comercio, especialmente en el margen intensivo. Estos hallazgos aportan evidencia frente al supuesto efecto frontera, el cual se presenta si la distancia estadística es medida de manera agregada, en lugar de considerar medidas más detalladas

Essays on city trade flows

Tesis doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico: Teoría Económica e Historia Económica. Fecha de lectura: 02-09-201

A trade hierarchy of cities based on transport cost thresholds

Empirical evidence has been lacking to explain trade agglomerations within countries. Starting with a novel micro-database of road freight shipments between Spanish municipalities for the period 2003–07, we break down city (municipal) trade flows into the extensive and intensive margins and assess trade frictions and trade concentration relying on a unique generalized transport cost measure and three internal borders: NUTS-5 (municipal), NUTS-3 (provincial) and NUTS-2 (regional). We find a stark accumulation of trade flows up to a transport cost value of €189 (approximately 170 km) and conclude that this high density is not due to administrative borders effects but to significant changes in the trade-to-transport costs relationship. To support this hypothesis, we propose and conduct an endogenous Chow test to identify significant thresholds at which trade flows change structurally with transport costs. These breakpoints allow us to split the sample when controlling for internal borders, and to define trade market areas corresponding to specific transport costs that consistently reveal an urban hierarchy of cities. The results provide clear evidence with which to corroborate the predictions of Central Place TheoryThis work was supported by MINECO [grant number ECO2013-46980-P]; and the Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte [grant number FPU-2010

Of losers and laggards: the interplay of material conditions and individual perceptions in the shaping of EU discontent

Two principal strands of scholarship analyse the material roots of European Union (EU) discontent. Some focus on the effects of regional decline, while others examine the role of individual socioeconomic factors. This paper brings these two perspectives together. We argue that EU discontent is a multifaceted phenomenon structured by the spatially-rooted interplay between individual and regional material conditions and subjective perceptions. We apply PLS-SEM to Eurobarometer public opinion data (2018-2019) and find that the geographical location and the socioeconomic position shape EU discontent directly. However, material factors' relevance for EU discontent is the greatest in structuring individual future expectations. Furthermore, democratic dissatisfaction turns out to be a key factor, pointing to the importance of institutional perceptions in the geography of discontent

Trade margins, transport cost thresholds and market areas: municipal freight flows and urban hierarchy

Recent research has determined the existence of a border effect on trade flows within a country associated to agglomeration economies, the size of the spatial unit of reference, as well as to alternative measures of transport costs. Using a micro-database on road freight shipments within Spain for the period 2003-2007, we consistently decompose the total value of municipal freight flows into the extensive and intensive margins at the European Nuts-5 (municipal), 3 (provincial) and 2 (regional) levels and study the impeding effect of actual generalized transport costs (as opposed to proxies given by the standard measures of distance and travel time). Establishing the superiority of this generalized measure of transport costs, we confirm the accumulation of trade flows up to a transport cost value of 330 euros, and conclude that this high density is not explained by the existence of administrative limits (border effects) but to significant changes in the trade flows-transport costs relationship. While this high density of trade coincides with low level administrative borders (municipal and provincial) as there is a positive and significant effect associated to them on all trade decomposition, it is not significant, or even negative, at a larger regional level. To support this hypothesis, we identify significant thresholds in the trade flows-transport costs relationship that are calculated by way of the Chow test of structural change. These breakpoints allow us to split the sample and control for successive administrative borders in both the extensive and intensive margins. Relying on these thresholds we define relevant market areas corresponding to specific transport costs values that portrait a consistent urban hierarchy system of the largest Spanish cities within a radius of about 330 euros, thereby providing clear evidence of the predictions made by the central place theory

Of losers and laggards: The interplay of material conditions and individual perceptions in the shaping of EU discontent

Two principal strands of scholarship analyse the material roots of European Union (EU) discontent. Some focus on the effects of regional decline, while others examine the role of individual socioeconomic factors. This paper brings these two perspectives together. We argue that EU discontent is a multifaceted phenomenon structured by the spatially-rooted interplay between individual and regional material conditions and subjective perceptions. We apply PLS-SEM to Eurobarometer public opinion data (2018-2019) and find that the geographical location and the socioeconomic position shape EU discontent directly. However, material factors' relevance for EU discontent is the greatest in structuring individual future expectations. Furthermore, democratic dissatisfaction turns out to be a key factor, pointing to the importance of institutional perceptions in the geography of discontent

Fricciones en el comercio interregional: una aproximación basada en datos municipales

Estudios recientes muestran que el efecto frontera, que enfatiza el impacto negativo de la distancia en los flujos de comercio internacional, surge de un error metodológico al utilizar la variable distancia, ya que al desagregar dicha variable no presenta efectos significativos. Bajo este contexto, utilizamos microdatos de los cargamentos distribuidos por tierra dentro de España durante el periodo 2003-2007, desagregamos los flujos de comercio municipal en un margen intensivo y extensivo y utilizamos diferentes medidas de costos de transporte, distancia geográfica y tiempo de traslado. Observamos que al considerar flujos comerciales detallados, el margen extensivo se incrementa en el tiempo mientras que el número de cargamentos disminuye conforme aumentan la distancia y el tiempo, lo anterior comparado con el valor promedio de dichos cargamentos (margen intensivo). En contraste con estudios previos, encontramos que la diferencia entre el margen intensivo y extensivo es mínima cuando se considera el tiempo en lugar de la distancia, lo cual también impacta en el valor total del comercio dentro de una misma municipalidad, ya que este resulta más importante. Finalmente, encontramos diversos efectos de las fronteras regionales en ambos márgenes, ya que tanto las provincias como las comunidades autónomas no impactan considerablemente en el comercio, especialmente en el margen intensivo. Estos hallazgos aportan evidencia frente al supuesto efecto frontera, el cual se presenta si la distancia estadística es medida de manera agregada, en lugar de considerar medidas más detalladas

La apertura exterior de las provincias vascas: una visión desde el comercio intra, interregional e internacional de bienes

En este artículo se analiza la evolución del comercio de bienes del País Vasco a lo largo del periodo 1995-2008, teniendo en cuenta los flujos internacionales, interregionales e intrarregionales. El análisis está basado principalmente en la cifras de la base de datos C-intereg, y ofrece un análisis inédito acerca de la estructura y evolución del comercio vasco utilizando datos sobre comercio interprovincial. Este análisis ofrece una visión completa de las fortalezas y debilidades de la economía del País Vasco en función de la competitividad comercial frente al resto de España y del resto del mundo, así como una interesante descomposición de los flujos interprovinciales dentro de la propia comunidad autónoma.This article examines the evolution of trade in goods of the Basque Country over the period 1995-2008, taking into account international, interregional and intrarregional flows. The analysis is based mainly on the C-intereg database, and offers an unprecedented analysis of the structure and evolution of the Basque trade of goods using interprovincial trade data. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of the strengths and weaknesses of the situation of the Basque Country in terms of commercial competitiveness against the rest of Spain and the rest of the world, as well as an interesting breakdown of the bilateral flows within the Basque Country itself.Financiado por: Proyecto C-intereg (www.c-intereg.es), financiado por 10 Comunidades Autónomas, entre las que se encuentra el Gobierno Vasco; el Programa TransporTrade (S2007/HUM/497), financiado por el Departamento de Educación de la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (www.uam.es/transportrade); Y el proyecto (ECO2010-21643) del Ministerio de Innovación y Tecnología