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Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of $f$ and aim at performing evaluations of $f$ as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Using estrus detection patches to optimally time insemination improved pregnancy risk in suckled beef cows enrolled in a fixed-time artificial insemination program

Citation: Hill, S. L., Grieger, D. M., Olson, K. C., Jaeger, J. R., Dahlen, C. R., Bridges, G. A., . . . Stevenson, J. S. (2016). Using estrus detection patches to optimally time insemination improved pregnancy risk in suckled beef cows enrolled in a fixed-time artificial insemination program. Journal of Animal Science, 94(9), 3703-3710. doi:10.2527/jas2016-0469A multilocation study examined pregnancy risk (PR) after delaying AI in suckled beef cows from 60 to 75 h when estrus had not been detected by 60 h in response to a 7-d CO-Synch + progesterone insert (CIDR) timed AI (TAI) program (d-7: CIDR insert concurrent with an injection of GnRH; d 0: PGF(2 alpha) injection and removal of CIDR insert; and GnRH injection at TAI [ 60 or 75 h after CIDR removal]). A total of 1,611 suckled beef cows at 15 locations in 9 states (CO, IL, KS, MN, MS, MT, ND, SD, and VA) were enrolled. Before applying the fixed-time AI program, BCS was assessed, and blood samples were collected. Estrus was defined to have occurred when an estrus detection patch was >50% colored (activated). Pregnancy was determined 35 d after AI via transrectal ultrasound. Cows (n = 746) detected in estrus by 60 h (46.3%) after CIDR removal were inseminated and treated with GnRH at AI (Control). Remaining nonestrous cows were allocated within location to 3 treatments on the basis of parity and days postpartum: 1) GnRH injection and AI at 60 h (early-early = EE; n = 292), 2) GnRH injection at 60 h and AI at 75 h (early-delayed = ED; n = 282), or 3) GnRH injection and AI at 75 h (delayed-delayed = DD; n = 291). Control cows had a greater (P < 0.01) PR (64.2%) than other treatments (EE = 41.7%, ED = 52.8%, DD = 50.0%). Use of estrus detection patches to delay AI in cows not in estrus by 60 h after CIDR insert removal (ED and DD treatments) increased (P < 0.05) PR to TAI when compared with cows in the EE treatment. More (P < 0.001) cows that showed estrus by 60 h conceived to AI at 60 h than those not showing estrus (64.2% vs. 48.1%). Approximately half (49.2%) of the cows not in estrus by 60 h had activated patches by 75 h, resulting in a greater (P < 0.05) PR than their nonestrous herd mates in the EE (46.1% vs. 34.5%), ED (64.2% vs. 39.2%), and DD (64.8% vs. 31.5%) treatments, respectively. Overall, cows showing estrus by 75 h (72.7%) had greater (P < 0.001) PR to AI (61.3% vs. 37.9%) than cows not showing estrus. Use of estrus detection patches to allow for a delayed AI in cows not in estrus by 60 h after removal of the CIDR insert improved PR to TAI by optimizing the timing of the AI in those cows

The Epstein-Barr Virus G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Contributes to Immune Evasion by Targeting MHC Class I Molecules for Degradation

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a human herpesvirus that persists as a largely subclinical infection in the vast majority of adults worldwide. Recent evidence indicates that an important component of the persistence strategy involves active interference with the MHC class I antigen processing pathway during the lytic replication cycle. We have now identified a novel role for the lytic cycle gene, BILF1, which encodes a glycoprotein with the properties of a constitutive signaling G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR). BILF1 reduced the levels of MHC class I at the cell surface and inhibited CD8+ T cell recognition of endogenous target antigens. The underlying mechanism involves physical association of BILF1 with MHC class I molecules, an increased turnover from the cell surface, and enhanced degradation via lysosomal proteases. The BILF1 protein of the closely related CeHV15 c1-herpesvirus of the Rhesus Old World primate (80% amino acid sequence identity) downregulated surface MHC class I similarly to EBV BILF1. Amongst the human herpesviruses, the GPCR encoded by the ORF74 of the KSHV c2-herpesvirus is most closely related to EBV BILF1 (15% amino acid sequence identity) but did not affect levels of surface MHC class I. An engineered mutant of BILF1 that was unable to activate G protein signaling pathways retained the ability to downregulate MHC class I, indicating that the immune-modulating and GPCR-signaling properties are two distinct functions of BILF1. These findings extend our understanding of the normal biology of an important human pathogen. The discovery of a third EBV lytic cycle gene that cooperates to interfere with MHC class I antigen processing underscores the importance of the need for EBV to be able to evade CD8+ T cell responses during the lytic replication cycle, at a time when such a large number of potential viral targets are expressed

Determination of “borderline resectable” pancreatic cancer – A global assessment of 30 shades of grey

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis. Accurate preoperative assessment using computed tomography (CT) to determine resectability is crucial in ensuring patients are offered the most appropriate therapeutic strategy. Despite the use of classification guidelines, any interobserver variability between reviewing surgeons and radiologists may confound decisions influencing patient treatment pathways. Methods: In this multicentre observational study, an international group of 96 clinicians (42 hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons and 54 radiologists) were surveyed and asked to report 30 pancreatic CT scans of pancreatic cancer deemed borderline at respective multidisciplinary meetings (MDM). The degree of interobserver agreement in resectability among radiologists and surgeons was assessed and subgroup regression analysis was performed. Results: Interobserver variability between reviewers was high with no unanimous agreement. Overall interobserver agreement was fair with a kappa value of 0.32 with a higher rate of agreement among radiologists over surgeons. Conclusion: Interobserver variability among radiologists and surgeons globally is high, calling into question the consistency of clinical decision making for patients with PDAC and suggesting that central review may be required for studies of neoadjuvant or adjuvant approaches in future as well as ongoing quality control initiatives, even amongst experts in the field

Characteristic mTOR activity in Hodgkin-lymphomas offers a potential therapeutic target in high risk disease – a combined tissue microarray, in vitro and in vivo study

BACKGROUND: Targeting signaling pathways is an attractive approach in many malignancies. The PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway is activated in a number of human neoplasms, accompanied by lower overall and/or disease free survival. mTOR kinase inhibitors have been introduced in the therapy of renal cell carcinoma and mantle cell lymphoma, and several trials are currently underway. However, the pathological characterization of mTOR activity in lymphomas is still incomplete. METHODS: mTOR activity and the elements of mTOR complexes were investigated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays representing different human non-Hodgkin-lymphomas (81 cases) and Hodgkin-lymphomas (87 cases). The expression of phospho-mTOR, phospho-4EBP1, phospho-p70S6K, phospho-S6, Rictor, Raptor and Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, Survivin and NF-kappaB-p50 were evaluated, and mTOR activity was statistically analyzed along with 5-year survival data. The in vitro and in vivo effect of the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin was also examined in human Hodgkin-lymphoma cell lines. RESULTS: The majority (>50%) of mantle cell lymphoma, Burkitt lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, anaplastic large-cell lymphoma and Hodgkin-lymphoma cases showed higher mTOR activity compared to normal lymphoid tissues. Hodgkin-lymphoma was characterized by high mTOR activity in 93% of the cases, and Bcl-xL and NF-kappaB expression correlated with this mTOR activity. High mTOR activity was observed in the case of both favorable and unfavorable clinical response. Low mTOR activity was accompanied by complete remission and at least 5-year disease free survival in Hodgkin-lymphoma patients. However, statistical analysis did not identify correlation beetween mTOR activity and different clinical data of HL patients, such as survival. We also found that Rictor (mTORC2) was not overexpressed in Hodgkin-lymphoma biopsies and cell lines. Rapamycin inhibited proliferation and induced apoptosis in Hodgkin-lymphoma cells both in vitro and in vivo, moreover, it increased the apoptotic effect of chemotherapeutic agents. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting mTOR activity may be a potential therapeutic tool in lymphomas. The presence of mTOR activity probably indicates that the inclusion of mTOR inhibition in the therapy of Hodgkin-lymphomas may be feasible and beneficial, especially when standard protocols are ineffective, and it may also allow dose reduction in order to decrease late treatment toxicity. Most likely, the combination of mTOR inhibitors with other agents will offer the highest efficiency for achieving the best clinical response

The Two Regimes of Neutral Evolution: Localization on Hubs and Delocalized Diffusion

It has been argued that much of evolution takes place in the absence of fitness gradients. Such periods of evolution can be analysed by examining the mutational network formed by sequences of equal fitness, that is the neutral network. It has been demonstrated that, in large populations under a high mutation rate, the population distribution over the neutral network and average mutational robustness are given by the principle eigenvector and eigenvalue, respectively, of the network’s adjacency matrix. However, little progress has been made towards understanding the manner in which the topology of the neutral network influences the resulting population distribution and robustness. In this work, we build on recent results from spectral graph theory and utilize numerical methods to demonstrate that there exist two regimes of behaviour: convergence on hubs and diffusion over the network. We also derive approximations for the population’s behaviour under these regimes. This challenges the widespread assumption that neutral evolution always leads to exploration of the neutral network and elucidates the conditions which result in the evolution of robust organisms

Efficacy and Safety of Three Antiretroviral Regimens for Initial Treatment of HIV-1: A Randomized Clinical Trial in Diverse Multinational Settings

Background:Antiretroviral regimens with simplified dosing and better safety are needed to maximize the efficiency of antiretroviral delivery in resource-limited settings. We investigated the efficacy and safety of antiretroviral regimens with once-daily compared to twice-daily dosing in diverse areas of the world.Methods and Findings:1,571 HIV-1-infected persons (47% women) from nine countries in four continents were assigned with equal probability to open-label antiretroviral therapy with efavirenz plus lamivudine-zidovudine (EFV+3TC-ZDV), atazanavir plus didanosine-EC plus emtricitabine (ATV+DDI+FTC), or efavirenz plus emtricitabine-tenofovir-disoproxil fumarate (DF) (EFV+FTC-TDF). ATV+DDI+FTC and EFV+FTC-TDF were hypothesized to be non-inferior to EFV+3TC-ZDV if the upper one-sided 95% confidence bound for the hazard ratio (HR) was ≤1.35 when 30% of participants had treatment failure.An independent monitoring board recommended stopping study follow-up prior to accumulation of 472 treatment failures. Comparing EFV+FTC-TDF to EFV+3TC-ZDV, during a median 184 wk of follow-up there were 95 treatment failures (18%) among 526 participants versus 98 failures among 519 participants (19%; HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.72-1.27; p = 0.74). Safety endpoints occurred in 243 (46%) participants assigned to EFV+FTC-TDF versus 313 (60%) assigned to EFV+3TC-ZDV (HR 0.64, CI 0.54-0.76; p<0.001) and there was a significant interaction between sex and regimen safety (HR 0.50, CI 0.39-0.64 for women; HR 0.79, CI 0.62-1.00 for men; p = 0.01). Comparing ATV+DDI+FTC to EFV+3TC-ZDV, during a median follow-up of 81 wk there were 108 failures (21%) among 526 participants assigned to ATV+DDI+FTC and 76 (15%) among 519 participants assigned to EFV+3TC-ZDV (HR 1.51, CI 1.12-2.04; p = 0.007).Conclusion: EFV+FTC-TDF had similar high efficacy compared to EFV+3TC-ZDV in this trial population, recruited in diverse multinational settings. Superior safety, especially in HIV-1-infected women, and once-daily dosing of EFV+FTC-TDF are advantageous for use of this regimen for initial treatment of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited countries. ATV+DDI+FTC had inferior efficacy and is not recommended as an initial antiretroviral regimen.Trial Registration:http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00084136