Los tipos de cambio reales de la UE: Un VAR bayesiano estructural. Una nota.

In this paper we contribute to the long literature on the real exchange determination by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model. We aim at identifying the effect on the EU-28 RER of shock originating in its main fundamental variables, namely, current account, government consumptions, investment and real income. We find in most of the shocks that the RER moves away for long periods, proving yet again, that the purchasing power parity condition is rarely fulfilled empirically.        En este trabajo se contribuye a la larga literatura sobre la determinación del intercambio real mediante la estimación de un modelo autorregresivo del vector estructural bayesiano. Nuestro objetivo es identificar el efecto en la TRE de la UE-28 de los shocks originados en sus principales variables fundamentales, a saber, cuenta corriente, consumos del gobierno, inversión e ingresos reales. Encontramos en la mayoría de las perturbaciones que la TRE se aleja durante largos períodos, lo que demuestra una vez más, que la condición de paridad de poder adquisitivo rara vez se cumple empíricamente

Investigating the oil price-exchange rate nexus: evidence from Africa 1970-2004

In this paper, we aim to provide further insights into the importance of real oil price as a determinant of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. While this relationship has been explored substantially for many industrialised economies, African countries have received little attention. By means of cointegration techniques and nonlinear dynamics we find that, for some of these countries, shocks in the real price of oil are particularly important in determining the real exchange rates, even in the long run. These results would be of interest for policymakers in order to deal more effectively with exchange rate policy decisions, aiming at promoting economic growth in the area

Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies

Abstract In this paper we aim to analyse the dynamics of unemployment in a group of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The CEECs are of special importance for the future of the European Union, given that most of them have recently become member states, and labour flows have been seen to rise with their accession. By means of unit root tests incorporating structural changes and nonlinearities, as well as fractional integration, we find that the unemployment rates for the CEECs are mean reverting processes, which is consistent with the NAIRU hypothesis, although shocks tend to be highly persistent. J.E.L. Classification : C32, E2

Instrumento autónomo para la medición, visualización y almacenamiento de variables climáticas

En este trabajo se presenta el diseño, implementación y calibración de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, PAR, temperatura y humedad, así como de todos los componentes que forman parte del sistema. El instrumento ha sido desarrollado en el Grupo en Energías Renovables (GER ) de la Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. El mismo contiene sensores digitales que le permiten medir la temperatura ambiente, humedad relativa y sensores analógicos para determinar el valor de la irradiancia y PAR. Es portable, posee una autonomía de 5 (cinco) días, una pantalla para mostrar las variables medidas y es capaz de registrar datos en una tarjeta SD cumpliendo con la función de datalogger. Conjuntamente se ha desarrollado un software para la lectura y representación en un display de las magnitudes medidas en función del tiempo. En esta etapa de la investigación se cuenta con un prototipo funcional calibrado en etapa de pruebas experimentales finales

A Non-linear Approach with Long Range Dependence based on Chebyshev Polynomials

This paper examines the interaction between non-linear deterministic trends and long run dependence by means of employing Chebyshev time polynomials and assuming that the detrended series displays long memory with the pole or singularity in the spectrum occurring at one or more possibly non-zero frequencies. The combination of the non-linear structure with the long memory framework produces a model which is linear in parameters and therefore it permits the estimation of the deterministic terms by standard OLS-GLS methods. Moreover, we present a procedure that permits us to test (possibly fractional) orders of integration at various frequencies in the presence of the Chebyshev trends with no effect on the standard limit distribution of the method. Several Monte Carlo experiments are conducted and the results indicate that the method performs well, and an empirical application, using data of real exchange rates is also carried out at the end of the article

Desarrollo de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, par, temperatura y humedad

En este trabajo se presenta el diseño, implementación y contrastación de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, PAR, temperatura y humedad, así como de todos los componentes que forman parte del sistema. El instrumento ha sido desarrollado en el Grupo en Energías Renovables (GER) de la Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. El mismo contiene sensores digitales que le permiten medir la temperatura ambiente, humedad relativa y sensores analógicos para determinar el valor de la irradiancia y PAR. Es portable, posee una autonomía de 5 (cinco) días, una pantalla para mostrar las variables medidas y es capaz de registrar datos en una tarjeta SD cumpliendo con la función de datalogger. Conjuntamente se ha desarrollado un software para la lectura y representación en un display de las magnitudes medidas en función del tiempo. En esta etapa de la investigación se cuenta con un prototipo funcional contrastado en etapa de pruebas experimentales finales.This paper describes the design, implementation and calibration of a irradiance, PAR, temperature and humidity portable meter, as well as all the components forming part of the system. The instrument has been developed in the Renewable Energy Group (GER) of the National University of the Northeast. It contains digital sensors to measure relative humidity and ambient temperature. Analog sensors to determine the value of the irradiance and PAR. It is portable, has a autonomy of 5 (five) days, a display that show the measured variables and recording data on an SD card fulfilling the function of datalogger. Was developed a software for reading and representation in a display of the measured variables versus time. At this stage the GER-UNNE has a functional prototype calibrated in experimental stage.Tema 8: Energías renovables, modelización y simulación.Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Oil shocks on unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe

The aim of this paper is to shine some light on the effect of oil price movements on unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe. In order to do so, we disentangle oil prices movements by their sign. From there we analyse the separate effect of positive and negative movements of oil prices on unemployment rates. We find that although oil prices and unemployment are not very much correlated in the short run, the effect of oil price shocks on the natural rate of unemployment goes in the same direction, i.e. increases or decreases in oil prices increase or decrease the natural rate of unemployment

Desarrollo de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, par, temperatura y humedad

En este trabajo se presenta el diseño, implementación y contrastación de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, PAR, temperatura y humedad, así como de todos los componentes que forman parte del sistema. El instrumento ha sido desarrollado en el Grupo en Energías Renovables (GER) de la Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. El mismo contiene sensores digitales que le permiten medir la temperatura ambiente, humedad relativa y sensores analógicos para determinar el valor de la irradiancia y PAR. Es portable, posee una autonomía de 5 (cinco) días, una pantalla para mostrar las variables medidas y es capaz de registrar datos en una tarjeta SD cumpliendo con la función de datalogger. Conjuntamente se ha desarrollado un software para la lectura y representación en un display de las magnitudes medidas en función del tiempo. En esta etapa de la investigación se cuenta con un prototipo funcional contrastado en etapa de pruebas experimentales finales.This paper describes the design, implementation and calibration of a irradiance, PAR, temperature and humidity portable meter, as well as all the components forming part of the system. The instrument has been developed in the Renewable Energy Group (GER) of the National University of the Northeast. It contains digital sensors to measure relative humidity and ambient temperature. Analog sensors to determine the value of the irradiance and PAR. It is portable, has a autonomy of 5 (five) days, a display that show the measured variables and recording data on an SD card fulfilling the function of datalogger. Was developed a software for reading and representation in a display of the measured variables versus time. At this stage the GER-UNNE has a functional prototype calibrated in experimental stage.Tema 8: Energías renovables, modelización y simulación.Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Desarrollo de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, par, temperatura y humedad

En este trabajo se presenta el diseño, implementación y contrastación de un medidor portátil de irradiancia, PAR, temperatura y humedad, así como de todos los componentes que forman parte del sistema. El instrumento ha sido desarrollado en el Grupo en Energías Renovables (GER) de la Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. El mismo contiene sensores digitales que le permiten medir la temperatura ambiente, humedad relativa y sensores analógicos para determinar el valor de la irradiancia y PAR. Es portable, posee una autonomía de 5 (cinco) días, una pantalla para mostrar las variables medidas y es capaz de registrar datos en una tarjeta SD cumpliendo con la función de datalogger. Conjuntamente se ha desarrollado un software para la lectura y representación en un display de las magnitudes medidas en función del tiempo. En esta etapa de la investigación se cuenta con un prototipo funcional contrastado en etapa de pruebas experimentales finales.This paper describes the design, implementation and calibration of a irradiance, PAR, temperature and humidity portable meter, as well as all the components forming part of the system. The instrument has been developed in the Renewable Energy Group (GER) of the National University of the Northeast. It contains digital sensors to measure relative humidity and ambient temperature. Analog sensors to determine the value of the irradiance and PAR. It is portable, has a autonomy of 5 (five) days, a display that show the measured variables and recording data on an SD card fulfilling the function of datalogger. Was developed a software for reading and representation in a display of the measured variables versus time. At this stage the GER-UNNE has a functional prototype calibrated in experimental stage.Tema 8: Energías renovables, modelización y simulación.Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Smooth transitions, asymmetric adjustment and unit roots

The aim of this article is to develop a unit root test that takes into account two sources of nonlinearites in data, i.e. asymmetric speed of mean reversion and structural changes. The asymmetric speed of mean reversion is modelled by means of a exponential smooth transition autoregression (ESTAR) function for the autoregressive parameter, whereas structural changes are approximated by a smooth transition in the deterministic components. We find that the proposed test performs well in terms of size and power, in particular when the autoregressive parameter is near unity