The history of the British Meteorological Office to 1905

This thesis covers the first half century of the British Metorological Office and events leading to its foundation. After an introductory chapter the narrative describes how growth of marine transportation led to awareness of possible benefits from knowledge of wind patterns. Moves to collect marine weather statistics worldwide were supported with reluctance by Britain, but eventually resulted in the foundation of a new Department of the Board of Trade devoted to collection of marine observations. Robert FitzRoy, its first head, later transformed this work into provision of the world's first operational weather forecasting system. After FitzRoy's death an investigation into the Department was followed by a complete re-organization that replaced it by a Meteorological Office under the control of an unpaid supervisory Committee (later a paid Council) financed by an annual grant. The subsequent evolution of the Office is described. Its relationships with other bodies were not always smooth, nor was its development rapid, but it laid a foundation for what was to follow. The Office's story impinges upon many aspects of the contemporary scene and is set within their context. The reaction of Treasury to its financing is dealt with at some length. The gradual growth of' public services is recounted and it is noted that, at a time of' supposed laissez-faire, there was no attempt to turn the Office into a revenue raising organization, the primacy of public service always being evident. A characteristic of science has been the division arising from the dichotomy between "pure" and "applied" approaches to problems, and this is highlighted within the narrative. Despite its disappointing role at the turn of the century, the Meteorological Office is seen as a prime force in the emergence of meteorology as a science within this country. The thesis closes with a glance to the future

Mine Action in Burma: Building Trust and Incremental Gains

Burma has long been known to be heavily contaminated by landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), with 3,693 casualties reported since 1999.1 The area is a complex and dynamic environment for humanitarian organizations, with multiple overlapping and interlinked conflicts between a number of disparate Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) and the Burmese Armed Forces, fought over several decades. In this context, international humanitarian mine action (HMA) operators have not been able to provide any form of technical response; there is currently no mine action coordination center, no agreed national standards, and no demarcation, technical survey, or clearance operations recognized by HMA operators

A scoping methodological review of simulation studies comparing statistical and machine learning approaches to risk prediction for time-to-event data

BACKGROUND: There is substantial interest in the adaptation and application of so-called machine learning approaches to prognostic modelling of censored time-to-event data. These methods must be compared and evaluated against existing methods in a variety of scenarios to determine their predictive performance. A scoping review of how machine learning methods have been compared to traditional survival models is important to identify the comparisons that have been made and issues where they are lacking, biased towards one approach or misleading. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of research articles published between 1 January 2000 and 2 December 2020 using PubMed. Eligible articles were those that used simulation studies to compare statistical and machine learning methods for risk prediction with a time-to-event outcome in a medical/healthcare setting. We focus on data-generating mechanisms (DGMs), the methods that have been compared, the estimands of the simulation studies, and the performance measures used to evaluate them. RESULTS: A total of ten articles were identified as eligible for the review. Six of the articles evaluated a method that was developed by the authors, four of which were machine learning methods, and the results almost always stated that this developed method's performance was equivalent to or better than the other methods compared. Comparisons were often biased towards the novel approach, with the majority only comparing against a basic Cox proportional hazards model, and in scenarios where it is clear it would not perform well. In many of the articles reviewed, key information was unclear, such as the number of simulation repetitions and how performance measures were calculated. CONCLUSION: It is vital that method comparisons are unbiased and comprehensive, and this should be the goal even if realising it is difficult. Fully assessing how newly developed methods perform and how they compare to a variety of traditional statistical methods for prognostic modelling is imperative as these methods are already being applied in clinical contexts. Evaluations of the performance and usefulness of recently developed methods for risk prediction should be continued and reporting standards improved as these methods become increasingly popular

Evaporation of particle-stabilised emulsion sunscreen films

We recently showed (Binks et al., ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces, 2016, DOI: 10.1021/acsami.6b02696) how evaporation of sunscreen films consisting of solutions of molecular UV filters leads to loss of UV light absorption and derived sun protection factor (SPF). In the present work, we investigate evaporation-induced effects for sunscreen films consisting of particle-stabilized emulsions containing a dissolved UV filter. The emulsions contained either droplets of propylene glycol (PG) in squalane (SQ), droplets of SQ in PG or droplets of decane in PG. In these different emulsion types, the SQ is involatile and shows no evaporation, the PG is volatile and evaporates relatively slowly, whereas the decane is relatively very volatile and evaporates quickly. We have measured the film mass and area, optical micrographs of the film structure, and the UV absorbance spectra during evaporation. For emulsion films containing the involatile SQ, evaporation of the PG causes collapse of the emulsion structure with some loss of specular UV absorbance due to light scattering. However, for these emulsions with droplets much larger than the wavelength of light, the light is scattered only at small forward angles so does not contribute to the diffuse absorbance and the film SPF. The UV filter remains soluble throughout the evaporation and thus the UV absorption by the filter and the SPF remain approximately constant. Both PG-in-SQ and SQ-in-PG films behave similarly and do not show area shrinkage by dewetting. In contrast, the decane-in-PG film shows rapid evaporative loss of the decane, followed by slower loss of the PG resulting in precipitation of the UV filter and film area shrinkage by dewetting which cause the UV absorbance and derived SPF to decrease. Measured UV spectra during evaporation are in reasonable agreement with spectra calculated using models discussed here

Spectrophotometry of thin films of light absorbing particles

Thin films of dispersions of light absorbing solid particles or emulsions containing a light absorbing solute all have a non-uniform distribution of light absorbing species throughout the sample volume. This results in non-uniform light absorption over the illuminated area which causes the optical absorbance, as measured using a conventional specular UV-vis spectrophotometer, to deviate from the Beer-Lambert relationship. We have developed a theoretical model to account for the absorbance properties of such films which are shown to depend on the size and volume fraction of the light absorbing particles plus other sample variables. We have compared model predictions with measured spectra for samples consisting of emulsions containing a dissolved light absorbing solute. Using no adjustable parameters, the model successfully predicts the behaviour of non-uniform, light absorbing emulsion films with varying values of droplet size, volume fraction and other parameters