Essays on Consumption

These essays study individual consumption behavior and its implications for macroeconomics. Starting with microeconomic measurement, chapter one improves on methods to estimate how households respond to income shocks. Chapter two builds on these methods, applying them to registry data from Denmark, and uses the resulting estimates to calculate the size of redistribution channels of monetary policy. Chapter three models the redistribution channels in a New Keynesian framework. Chapter one builds on Working's observation that time aggregation of a random walk induces serial correlation in the first differences that is not present in the original series. This important contribution has been overlooked in a large recent literature analyzing income and consumption in panel data. This chapter takes Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008) as an example and shows how to correct for this problem. I find the estimate for the partial insurance to transitory shocks, originally estimated to be 5%, is equal to 24% when corrected for time aggregation. Chapter two aims to test the microfoundations of consumption models and quantify the macro implications of consumption heterogeneity. We propose a new empirical method to estimate the sensitivity of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks for different groups of households. We then apply this method to administrative data from Denmark. The large sample size, along with detailed household balance sheet information, allows us to finely divide the population along relevant dimensions. For example, we find that households who stand to lose from an interest rate hike are significantly more sensitive to income shocks than those who stand to gain. In chapter three we analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to consumption in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. We show that in these models the countercyclical nature of profits, empirically false, plays a large role in amplifying the intertemporal substitution channel. On the other hand the interest rate exposure channel, empirically large, plays a small role

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. METHODS: Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. RESULTS: A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. CONCLUSIONS: Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies

Angiosperm phylogeny: 17 genes, 640 taxa

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/1/ajb20704-sup-0010.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/2/ajb20704.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/3/ajb20704-sup-0001.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/4/ajb20704-sup-0016.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/5/ajb20704-sup-0017.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/6/ajb20704-sup-0021.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/7/ajb20704-sup-0003.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/8/ajb20704-sup-0002.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/9/ajb20704-sup-0011.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/10/ajb20704-sup-0019.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/11/ajb20704-sup-0015.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/12/ajb20704-sup-0006.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/13/ajb20704-sup-0020.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/14/ajb20704-sup-0013.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/15/ajb20704-sup-0004.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/16/ajb20704-sup-0012.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/17/ajb20704-sup-0005.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/18/ajb20704-sup-0018.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/19/ajb20704-sup-0009.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/20/ajb20704-sup-0014.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/21/ajb20704-sup-0007.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142064/22/ajb20704-sup-0008.pd

Angiosperm Phylogeny: 17 Genes, 640 Taxa

• Premise of the study : Recent analyses employing up to fi ve genes have provided numerous insights into angiosperm phylogeny, but many relationships have remained unresolved or poorly supported. In the hope of improving our understanding of angiosperm phylogeny, we expanded sampling of taxa and genes beyond previous analyses. • Methods : We conducted two primary analyses based on 640 species representing 330 families. The fi rst included 25 260 aligned base pairs (bp) from 17 genes (representing all three plant genomes, i.e., nucleus, plastid, and mitochondrion). The second included 19 846 aligned bp from 13 genes (representing only the nucleus and plastid). • Key results : Many important questions of deep-level relationships in the nonmonocot angiosperms have now been resolved with strong support. Amborellaceae, Nymphaeales, and Austrobaileyales are successive sisters to the remaining angiosperms ( Mesangiospermae ), which are resolved into Chloranthales + Magnoliidae as sister to Monocotyledoneae + [Ceratophyllaceae + Eudicotyledoneae ]. Eudicotyledoneae contains a basal grade subtending Gunneridae . Within Gunneridae , Gunnerales are sister to the remainder ( Pentapetalae ), which comprises (1) Superrosidae , consisting of Rosidae (including Vitaceae) and Saxifragales; and (2) Superasteridae , comprising Berberidopsidales, Santalales, Caryophyllales , Asteridae , and, based on this study, Dilleniaceae (although other recent analyses disagree with this placement). Within the major subclades of Pentapetalae , most deep-level relationships are resolved with strong support. • Conclusions : Our analyses confi rm that with large amounts of sequence data, most deep-level relationships within the angiosperms can be resolved. We anticipate that this well-resolved angiosperm tree will be of broad utility for many areas of biology, including physiology, ecology, paleobiology, and genomics

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Measurement of the B0-anti-B0-Oscillation Frequency with Inclusive Dilepton Events

The $B^0$-$\bar B^0$ oscillation frequency has been measured with a sample of 23 million \B\bar B pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric B Factory at SLAC. In this sample, we select events in which both B mesons decay semileptonically and use the charge of the leptons to identify the flavor of each B meson. A simultaneous fit to the decay time difference distributions for opposite- and same-sign dilepton events gives $\Delta m_d = 0.493 \pm 0.012{(stat)}\pm 0.009{(syst)}$ ps$^{-1}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

A Study of Time-Dependent CP-Violating Asymmetries and Flavor Oscillations in Neutral B Decays at the Upsilon(4S)

We present a measurement of time-dependent CP-violating asymmetries in neutral B meson decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B Factory at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The data sample consists of 29.7 ${\rm fb}^{-1}$ recorded at the $\Upsilon(4S)$ resonance and 3.9 ${\rm fb}^{-1}$ off-resonance. One of the neutral B mesons, which are produced in pairs at the $\Upsilon(4S)$, is fully reconstructed in the CP decay modes $J/\psi K^0_S$, $\psi(2S) K^0_S$, $\chi_{c1} K^0_S$, $J/\psi K^{*0}$ ($K^{*0}\to K^0_S\pi^0$) and $J/\psi K^0_L$, or in flavor-eigenstate modes involving $D^{(*)}\pi/\rho/a_1$ and $J/\psi K^{*0}$ ($K^{*0}\to K^+\pi^-$). The flavor of the other neutral B meson is tagged at the time of its decay, mainly with the charge of identified leptons and kaons. The proper time elapsed between the decays is determined by measuring the distance between the decay vertices. A maximum-likelihood fit to this flavor eigenstate sample finds $\Delta m_d = 0.516\pm 0.016 {\rm (stat)} \pm 0.010 {\rm (syst)} {\rm ps}^{-1}$. The value of the asymmetry amplitude $\sin2\beta$ is determined from a simultaneous maximum-likelihood fit to the time-difference distribution of the flavor-eigenstate sample and about 642 tagged $B^0$ decays in the CP-eigenstate modes. We find $\sin2\beta=0.59\pm 0.14 {\rm (stat)} \pm 0.05 {\rm (syst)}$, demonstrating that CP violation exists in the neutral B meson system. (abridged)Comment: 58 pages, 35 figures, submitted to Physical Review