Do-it-yourself shuffling and the number of runs under randomness

A common class of problem in statistical science is estimating, as a benchmark, the probability of some event under randomness. For example, in a sequence of events in which several outcomes are possible and the length of the sequence and number of outcomes of each type known, the number of runs gives an indication of whether the outcomes are random, clustered, or alternating. This note explains and illustrates a simple method of random shuffling that is often useful. We show how the conditional probability distribution of the number of runs may be derived easily in Stata, thus yielding p-values for testing the null hypothesis that the type of outcome is random. We also compare our direct approach with that using the simulate command. Copyright 2003 by StataCorp LP.alternation, categorical data, clustering, conditional distribution, forvalues, p-value, permutation, run, sequence, simulate, simulation

Systematic approaches to the presentation of academic studies

The basic purpose of this Dissertation is to help to fill the gap experienced by many students between secondary and tertiary education; a gap which arises from the failure of students to understand the need for the use of the critical conceptual skills .and systems analysis. These have enabled Homo sapiens sapiens (Hss) to use his experience of his environment to apply his understanding to the solution of problems presented by that environment; phylogeneticalry speaking, it has taken short period for Hss to become the dominant species. This involves, first, the consideration of historical studies of the intellectual and linguistic means that evolved to meet these needs; complex problems always involve complex systems. Secondly, there is a consideration of the progressive development of those skills by institutionalised education and Hss\u27s outstanding intellectual mastery of his environment and the use of systems analysis and conceptual thinking. This is followed by an attempt, by tracing the development of those skills to show h o w they m a y be acquired and developed by the appropriate training and discipline of the vast complexity neurological systems of the human brain, especially in the use of language, that have evolved to deal with those problems involved in securing the survival of Hss. Thus the tertiary student needs to be introduced to the complexities of the infinite variety of systems, the analysis of which forms the basis of the subject matter of the tertiary student\u27s studies. An argument for the need for systematic approaches to modern academic studies is introduced. The increasing importance for the modern student of an awareness of the developments in systems study and conceptual analysis is emphasised. Some limited idea of the significance of such an approach, maybe of value, illustrated by detailed historical examples. The thesis of this study is that students and their teachers from the outset of their tertiary education should be made specifically aware of this historical background, especially through study of the actual contribution of scientists. Hence the emphasis on the development of systems analysis and conceptual thinking that began with Galileo and Isaac Newton, and was followed later by Einstein and others. Striking developments in academic thinking have developed with the computer age, all of which must be seen in the perspective of the development of language and thinking skills generally, in the axiomatic deductive thinking of Euclid, the systems analysis of Ross Ashby, Wiener and Beer, and the practical studies of academic thinking as exemplified in the Thomas Kuhn\u27s book on the methods of scientists. Stimulated by these, teachers can arouse the interest and enthusiasm of students to cultivate the thinking systems of their own brains and minds, rather than use a purely epistemological approach. It is suggested that such knowledge and its application should eventually be imparted in structured courses, with explanations and exercises in the presentation of the results of academic studies of typical problems in the form of essays, assessments and examinations. Thus students can become familiar with the structure of modern academic thinking and aware of the methods of systems analysis

A qualitative study of parents' experiences using family support services: applying the concept of surface and depth

UK policy and practice endorses family support for child well-being. Achieving such support requires multi-agency approaches, that consider all aspects of parents’ and children’s lives and which offer practical, social and emotional help. The potential for services to make a positive impact on parents and their families will depend in part on the level and nature of engagement. In this paper a case is made for the application of the two-part ‘surface and depth’ concept for understanding how practitioners engage with families and how they might improve the chances of supporting sustainable differences for parents and families. To illustrate, qualitative data from a review of family centre support provided by a north of England local authority, are presented. The review was commissioned to explore why families often need to re-engage with intensive support services. Data are drawn from interviews with parents (n=18, recruited following a survey of all those registered with the service during April – May 2009) and discussions with family centre support workers (n=4) and following thematic analysis three dominant themes emerged: ‘resources available’, ‘staff approach’ and ‘real life’, were appraised in light of the ‘surface and depth’ concept. Much of the work with parents effectively dealt with pressing needs. This felt gratifying for both parent and worker and supported immediate service engagement. However, each noted that the more complex issues in parents’ lives went unchallenged and thus the sustainability of progress in terms of parenting practice was questionable. A ‘strengths focused’ approach by staff, that understood needs in the context of parents’ ‘real life’ circumstances was important to parent engagement. Thus, longer term benefits from family support requires practitioners to work with parents to problem solve immediate issues whilst also digging deeper to acknowledge and seek to resolve the more complex challenges parents face in their real lives

British Reaction to German Foreign Policy, January 1933 to June 1936

The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the foreign policy inter-action between Britain and Germany from January, 1933 to June, 1936, and to analyse British action, reaction and aims in foreign policy during that time. In Chapter I, I deal with three broad ideas by way of introduction. First, there is an analysis of those groups which are acting and reacting in the sphere of foreign policy. There are four groups enumerated: the governmental or official group; the parliamentary group; the press; and, finally, public opinion. The make-up of these groups, the sources for discovering their reactions, and the problems with identifying their reactions is also discussed. Furthermore, it includes a summary of the attitudes of the press toward Germany in the 1930\u27s and some of the personalities involved. Secondly, there is a discussion of the type of events to which these groups were reacting. There are three categories of events which are discussed: first, those moves which fall obviously into the category of foreign policy, like Germany\u27s withdrawal from the League of Nations in 1933, or the reoccupation of the Rhineland in 1936; secondly, there are those decisions, like the reintroduction of conscription in Germany, which can be construed as domestic or foreign policy; thirdly, there are those events which, although exclusively domestic, elicited a response in Britain. Finally, there is a short bibliographical review, in which the types of sources that were availabel to me and the problems with handling those sources is discussed. The following four chapters deal with the actual events, from January, 1933 to June, 1936, which forms the bulk of the paper. Chapter II contains a background to the period under review in the form of a summary of British attitudes from 1919 to 1932, and continues with a description of Anglo-German relations in 1933. Chapters III, IV, and V deal with the events and reactions in 1934, 1935 and 1936 respectively. The final chapter contains the conclusion, in which I trace the permanent aims and interests of British foreign policy and how these can be reconciled to British reactions to German foreign policy moves during the period under review

Outreach, Delivery and Employer Engagement in Working Potential

Working Potential was a National Lottery Community Fund funded project commissioned by Greater Manchester Centre for Voluntary Organisation (GMCVO) which aimed to engage up to 300 unemployed older carers not engaged with statutory employability programmes. Ambition for Ageing commissioned three regional providers in the North West of England to deliver a service to support older carers into employment; all contractors had existing employment support provision. This report recounts the qualitative interviews and focus groups undertaken with carers, Working Potential coaches and other project stakeholders between February and November 2019 across three locations in the North West of England. The research highlights the instrumental and facilitative impact for older carers of fostering and re-establishing their connectedness to others, and how early stage, community-based, individual, and group-based coaching interventions may provide useful adjuncts to pre-employment support for older carers. Recommendations for research, policy and practice development are outlined

Semi-automatic selection of summary statistics for ABC model choice

A central statistical goal is to choose between alternative explanatory models of data. In many modern applications, such as population genetics, it is not possible to apply standard methods based on evaluating the likelihood functions of the models, as these are numerically intractable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a commonly used alternative for such situations. ABC simulates data x for many parameter values under each model, which is compared to the observed data xobs. More weight is placed on models under which S(x) is close to S(xobs), where S maps data to a vector of summary statistics. Previous work has shown the choice of S is crucial to the efficiency and accuracy of ABC. This paper provides a method to select good summary statistics for model choice. It uses a preliminary step, simulating many x values from all models and fitting regressions to this with the model as response. The resulting model weight estimators are used as S in an ABC analysis. Theoretical results are given to justify this as approximating low dimensional sufficient statistics. A substantive application is presented: choosing between competing coalescent models of demographic growth for Campylobacter jejuni in New Zealand using multi-locus sequence typing data

A prospective and deductive analysis tool for qualitative inquiry into social capital

Pragmatic social research or evaluation projects often need to show how research questions map or link to normative policy frameworks. This tool provides an exemplar of how this was achieved for community based research into social capital. The tool derives over-arching foci for Theoretical Questions (TQn) (lower left) from normative policy descriptors of social capital (upper right) for guiding the prospective and deductive collection and analysis of qualitative data. The tool therefore allows the relationship between policy descriptors and theoretical questions to be clearly mapped and illustrated. Originally devised 2014, revised, updated and archived 2019

Masticatory musculature of the African mole-rats (Rodentia: Bathyergidae)

The Bathyergidae, commonly known as blesmols or African mole-rats, is a family of rodents well-known for their subterranean lifestyle and tunnelling behaviour. Four of the five extant bathyergid genera (Cryptomys, Fukomys, Georychus and Heliophobius) are chisel-tooth diggers, that is they dig through soil with their enlarged incisors, whereas the remaining genus (Bathyergus) is a scratch-digger, only using its forelimbs for burrowing. Heterocephalus glaber, the naked mole-rat, is also a chisel-tooth digger and was until recently included within the Bathyergidae (as the most basally branching genus), but has now been placed by some researchers into its own family, the Heterocephalidae. Given the importance of the masticatory apparatus in habitat construction in this group, knowledge and understanding of the morphology and arrangement of the jaw-closing muscles in Bathyergidae is vital for future functional analyses. Here, we use diffusible iodine-based contrast-enhanced microCT to reveal and describe the muscles of mastication in representative specimens of each genus of bathyergid mole-rat and to compare them to the previously described musculature of the naked mole-rat. In all bathyergids, as in all rodents, the masseter muscle is the most dominant component of the masticatory musculature. However, the temporalis is also a relatively large muscle, a condition normally associated with sciuromorphous rodents. Unlike their hystricomorphous relatives, the bathyergids do not show an extension of the masseter through the infraorbital foramen on to the rostrum (other than a very slight protrusion in Cryptomys and Fukomys). Thus, morphologically, bathyergids are protrogomorphous, although this is thought to be secondarily derived rather than retained from ancestral rodents. Overall, the relative proportions of the jaw-closing muscles were found to be fairly consistent between genera except in Bathyergus, which was found to have an enlarged superficial masseter and relatively smaller pterygoid muscles. It is concluded that these differences may be a reflection of the behaviour of Bathyergus which, uniquely in the family, does not use its incisors for digging

A hermeneutical study of professional accountability in nursing

Aims This paper presents findings from a hermeneutical study which sought to explore how registered nurses experienced and perceived their professional accountability in clinical settings. Background Professional accountability encompasses the ideals and standards of nursing practice. Nurses are accountable for their actions under civil, criminal and contract law to their; employing organisation, their regulatory body and the patients for whom they care. Design and methods This paper reports on a Heideggerian hermeneutical study involving seven registered nurses, working in clinical practice in the National Health Service in the United Kingdom. The study adopted purposive sampling, collecting data by means of in‐depth interviews. Data was analysed using the hermeneutic circle. COREQ checklist was used as a reporting guideline for this study. Results The findings suggest that professional accountability in nursing practice is a complex phenomenon, which can be compromised by many factors which are historically, socially or politically driven. Participants experienced challenges through a lack of resources and poor managerial support, which comprised their ability to deliver high quality patient care. However, collegiality strongly impacted upon resilience and positively influenced their wellbeing. Relevance to clinical practice Amid the challenges of the clinical workplace, a positive workplace culture with visible managerial support is a fundamental requirement in supporting professional accountability, development and retention of nurses. Findings highlight the view that leadership should be seen as a collective responsibility, which empowers staff to positively change the practice environment