Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery

This paper considers the long-term (500 year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200 years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150 μeq L−1 and pH 7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. −100 μeq L−1, and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH 6.1, ANC +43 μeq L−1, though it takes c. 250 years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes – reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled – this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future

Dynamic modeling and target loads of sulfur and nitrogen for surface waters in Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom

The target load concept is an extension of the critical load concept of air pollution inputs to ecosystems. The advantage of target loads over critical loads is that one can define the deposition and the point in time (target year) when the critical (chemical) limit is no longer violated. This information on the timing of recovery requires dynamic modelling. Using a well-documented dynamic model, target loads for acidic deposition were determined for 848 surface waters across Finland, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom for the target year 2050. In the majority of sites (n = 675), the critical ANC-limit was predicted to be achieved by 2050; however, for 127 sites target loads were determined. In addition, 46 sites were infeasible, i.e., even a deposition reduction to zero would not achieve the limit by 2050. The average maximum target load for sulphur was 38% lower than the respective critical load across the study lakes (n = 127). Target loads on a large regional scale can inform effects-based emission reduction policies; the current assessment suggests that reductions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol are required to ensure surface water recovery from acidification by 2050

Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in a temperate maritime catchment (the River Conwy, Wales)

Water-borne pathogen contamination from untreated sewage effluent and runoff from farms is a serious threat to the use of river water for drinking and commercial purposes, such as downstream estuarine shellfish industries. In this study, the impact of climate change and land-use change on the presence of faecal indicator bacteria in freshwater was evaluated, through the use of a recently-developed catchment-scale pathogen model. The River Conwy in Wales has been used as a case-study, because of the large presence of livestock in the catchment and the importance of the shellfish harvesting activities in its estuary. The INCA-Pathogens catchment model has been calibrated through the use of a Monte-Carlo-based technique, based on faecal indicator bacteria measurements, and then driven by an ensemble of climate projections obtained from the HadRM3-PPE model (Future Flow Climate) plus four land-use scenarios (current land use, managed ecosystem, abandonment and agricultural intensification). The results show that climate change is not expected to have a very large impact on average river flow, although it might alter its seasonality. The abundance of faecal indicator bacteria is expected to decrease in response to climate change, especially during the summer months, due to reduced precipitation, causing reduced runoff, and increased temperature, which enhances the bacterial die-off processes. Land-use change can also have a potentially large impact on pathogens. The “managed ecosystems” scenario proposed in this study can cause a reduction of 15% in average water faecal indicator bacteria and up to 30% in the 90th percentile of water faecal indicator bacteria, mainly due to the conversion of pasture land into grassland and the expansion of forest land. This study provides an example of how to assess the impacts of human interventions on the landscape, and what may be the extent of their effects, for other catchments where the human use of the natural resources in the uplands can jeopardise the use of natural resources downstream

Acidity promotes degradation of multi-species environmental DNA in lotic mesocosms

Accurate quantification of biodiversity is fundamental to understanding ecosystem function and for environmental assessment. Molecular methods using environmental DNA (eDNA) offer a non-invasive, rapid, and cost-effective alternative to traditional biodiversity assessments, which require high levels of expertise. While eDNA analyses are increasingly being utilized, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the dynamics of multispecies eDNA, especially in variable systems such as rivers. Here, we utilize four sets of upland stream mesocosms, across an acid–base gradient, to assess the temporal and environmental degradation of multispecies eDNA. Sampling included water column and biofilm sampling over time with eDNA quantified using qPCR. Our findings show that the persistence of lotic multispecies eDNA, sampled from water and biofilm, decays to non-detectable levels within 2 days and that acidic environments accelerate the degradation process. Collectively, the results provide the basis for a predictive framework for the relationship between lotic eDNA degradation dynamics in spatio-temporally dynamic river ecosystems

Soil carbon determination for long‐term monitoring revisited using thermo‐gravimetric analysis

Soils and the vadose zone are the major terrestrial repository of carbon (C) in the form of soil organic matter (SOM), more resistant black carbon (BC), and inorganic carbonate. Differentiating between these pools is important for assessing vulnerability to degradation and changes in the C cycle affecting soil health and climate regulation. Major monitoring programs from field to continent are now being undertaken to track changes in soil carbon (SC). Inexpensive, robust measures that can differentiate small changes in the C pools in a single measurement are highly desirable for long-term monitoring. In this study, we assess the accuracy and precision of thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA) using organic matter standards, clay minerals, and soils from a national data set. We investigate the use of TGA to routinely differentiate between C pools, something no single measurement has yet achieved. Based on the kinetic nature of thermal oxidation of SC combined with the different thermodynamic stabilities of the molecules, we designed a new method to quantify the inorganic and organic SC and further separate the organic biogeochemically active SOM (as loss on ignition, LOI) from the resistant BC in soils. We analyze the TGA spectrums of a national soil monitoring data set (n = 456) and measure total carbon (TC) using thermal oxidation and also demonstrate a TC/LOI relationship of 0.55 for soils ranging from mineral soils to peat for the United Kingdom consistent with previous monitoring campaigns

An integrated spatio-temporal view of riverine biodiversity using environmental DNA metabarcoding 2

Anthropogenically forced changes in global freshwater biodiversity demands better monitoring approaches. Consequently, environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is enabling ecosystem-scale biodiversity assessment, yet the accurate spatiotemporal resolution at which robust biodiversity information can be detected remains ambiguous. Here, using intensive, annual spatiotemporal eDNA sampling across space (five rivers in the USA and Europe, with an upper range of 20-35 km between samples), time (19 timepoints across 2017 to 2018) and environmental conditions (river flow, pH, conductivity, temperature and rainfall), we characterise the resolution at which information on diversity across the animal kingdom can be gathered from rivers. In space, beta diversity was mainly dictated by turnover, on a scale of tens of kilometres, highlighting that diversity measures are not confounded by eDNA from upstream. Fish communities showed nested assemblages along some rivers, coinciding with habitat use. Across time, seasonal life history events, including salmon and eel migration, were detected. Finally, effects of abiotic factors were taxon-specific, reflecting habitat filtering of communities rather than environmental effects on DNA molecules. We conclude that riverine eDNA metabarcoding can measure biodiversity at spatiotemporal scales relevant to species and community ecology, demonstrating its utility in delivering insights into river ecology during an epoch of environmental change

The design and deployment of an end-to-end IoT infrastructure for the natural environment

Internet of Things (IoT) systems have seen recent growth in popularity for city and home environments. We report on the design, deployment, and use of the IoT infrastructure for environmental monitoring and management. Working closely with hydrologists, soil scientists, and animal behaviour scientists, we successfully deployed and utilised a system to deliver integrated information across these two fields in the first such example of real-time multidimensional environmental science. We describe the design of this system; its requirements and operational effectiveness for hydrological, soil, and ethological scientists; and our experiences from building, maintaining, and using the deployment at a remote site in difficult conditions. Based on this experience, we discuss key future work for the IoT community when working in these kinds of environmental deployments

Using global remote camera data of a solitary species complex to evaluate the drivers of group formation

We would like to thank Megan Whatton, Belden Giman, Hongliang Bu, Dajun Wang, Fang Wang, Roland Kays, Jillian Kilborn, and New Hampshire Fish and Game for their roles in contributing data that was used in this analysis. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.Peer reviewe

An integrated spatio-temporal view of riverine biodiversity using environmental DNA metabarcoding

Anthropogenically forced changes in global freshwater biodiversity demand more efficient monitoring approaches. Consequently, environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is enabling ecosystem-scale biodiversity assessment, yet the appropriate spatio-temporal resolution of robust biodiversity assessment remains ambiguous. Here, using intensive, spatio-temporal eDNA sampling across space (five rivers in Europe and North America, with an upper range of 20–35 km between samples), time (19 timepoints between 2017 and 2018) and environmental conditions (river flow, pH, conductivity, temperature and rainfall), we characterise the resolution at which information on diversity across the animal kingdom can be gathered from rivers using eDNA. In space, beta diversity was mainly dictated by turnover, on a scale of tens of kilometres, highlighting that diversity measures are not confounded by eDNA from upstream. Fish communities showed nested assemblages along some rivers, coinciding with habitat use. Across time, seasonal life history events, including salmon and eel migration, were detected. Finally, effects of environmental conditions were taxon-specific, reflecting habitat filtering of communities rather than effects on DNA molecules. We conclude that riverine eDNA metabarcoding can measure biodiversity at spatio-temporal scales relevant to species and community ecology, demonstrating its utility in delivering insights into river community ecology during a time of environmental change

Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. First year annual report

The Welsh Government has commissioned a comprehensive new ecosystem monitoring and evaluation programme to monitor the effects of Glastir, its new land management scheme, and to monitor progress towards a range of international biodiversity and environmental targets. A random sample of 1 km squares stratified by landcover types will be used both to monitor change at a national level in the wider countryside and to provide a backdrop against which intervention measures are assessed using a second sample of 1 km squares located in areas eligible for enhanced payments for advanced interventions. Modelling in the first year has forecast change based on current understanding, whilst a rolling national monitoring programme based on an ecosystem approach will provide an evidence-base for on-going, adaptive development of the scheme by Welsh Government. To our knowledge, this will constitute the largest and most in-depth ecosystem monitoring and evaluation programme of any member state of the European Union