Bayesian Prevalence Estimation from Pooled and Individual Data

Pooled and individual disease testing are common methods for determining the population prevalences of diseases. Recently, researchers have used Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods to estimate population prevalence from the combined streams of these two types of testing data. We propose an analytical solution for estimating population prevalence from combined individual and pooled binary sampling data. We also use simulated sampling data to characterize these posterior distributions under a variety of sampling conditions, including a range of true prevalences, variable numbers of pooled and individual tests, variable number of individual samples per pooled sample, and a range of values for test sensitivity and specificity.Comment: 19 pages, 15 figure

Temperature dependence of the HartRAO pointing model

This thesis investigates control aspects of the Hartebeeshoek Radio Astronomy Observatory (HartRAO) antenna. The installation of a new 22 GHz receiver has required the pointing accuracy to be improved to less than 4 mdeg. The effect of thermal conditions on the the HartRAO antenna pointing offset is investigated using a variety of modelling techniques including simple geometric modelling, neural networks and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Convincing results were obtained for the Declination pointing offset, where applying certain model predictions to observations resulted in an improvement in Declination pointing offset from 5.5 mdeg to 3.2 mdeg (≈50%). The Right Ascension pointing model was considerably less convincing with an improvement of approximately from 5.5 mdeg to 4.5 mdeg (≈20%) in the Right Ascension pointing offset. The Declination pointing offset can be modelled sufficiently well to reduce the pointing offset to less than 4 mdeg, however further investigation of the underlying causes is required for the Right Ascension pointing offset

Does predation control the diapausing stock of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine?

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wiebe, P., Baumgartner, M., Copley, N., Lawson, G., Davis, C., Ji, R., & Greene, C. Does predation control the diapausing stock of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine? Progress In Oceanography, 206, (2022): 102861, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2022.102861.The variability of zooplankton populations is controlled by external and internal forcing, with the former being principally large-scale changes in circulation, and the latter being driven by in situ growth, competition, and predation. Assessing the relative importance of these forcings is challenging and requires analyses of multifaceted observational data. As part of the U.S. GLOBEC Georges Bank program, a series of cruises were conducted in fall 1997, 1998, and 1999 to survey diapausing populations of Calanus finmarchicus and their predators in Wilkinson, Jordan, and Georges Basins of the Gulf of Maine. Station and underway sampling were conducted using net (1 m2 MOCNESS) and bioacoustic (BIOMAPER-II) systems, respectively, to acquire vertically stratified data for zooplankton biomass, taxonomic, size, and life-stage composition, together with associated environmental data. The results show that the autumn diapausing C. finmarchicus abundance was much lower in 1998 than in 1997 or 1999, even though the overall zooplankton biomass levels were comparable between the three years. The size frequency distribution of the diapausing individuals had a bi-modal pattern in 1997 and 1999, but a single mode in 1998, indicating the demise of an early cohort of the diapausing stock. The relative biomass and computed energy demand of potential invertebrate predators (euphausiids, decapods, medusae, and siphonophores) was found to be higher in 1998 and could account for the missing C. finmarchicus cohort. Evidence collected from this study supports the hypothesis that local predation has the potential to control the diapausing stock of C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine.RJ received support from the Northeast US Shelf Long Term Ecological Research (NES-LTER) project (NSF OCE-1655686) and the US MBON Gulf of Maine project to NERACOOS (NOPP award NA19NOS0120197 and BOEMUMaine Cooperative Agreement M19AC00022) for analyzing the size data and working on the manuscript. Research support was provided by the US GLOBEC Georges Bank Program through the CILER Cooperative Agreement NA-67RJO148 (NOAA Coastal Ocean Program)

The C-Band All-Sky Survey: Instrument design, status, and first-look data

The C-Band All-Sky Survey (C-BASS) aims to produce sensitive, all-sky maps of diffuse Galactic emission at 5 GHz in total intensity and linear polarization. These maps will be used (with other surveys) to separate the several astrophysical components contributing to microwave emission, and in particular will allow an accurate map of synchrotron emission to be produced for the subtraction of foregrounds from measurements of the polarized Cosmic Microwave Background. We describe the design of the analog instrument, the optics of our 6.1 m dish at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, the status of observations, and first-look data.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures, published in Proceedings of SPIE MIllimeter, Submillimeter, and Far-Infrared Detectors and Instrumentation for Astronomy V (2010), Vol. 7741, 77411I-1 - 77411I-1

Phenology in Calanus funmarchicus; hypotheses about control mechanisms

Calanus finmarchicus (Gunnerus) stratify narrowly near 500 m depth during their fifth copepodite resting phase in North Atlantic Slope Water off southern New England, USA. They probably achieve this by migration to a specific, daytime isolume. Photoperiod information provided by light intensity at depth could serve as a cure for termination of the resting phase. Population data on tooth formation and gonad growth show that the resting stock prepares for termination in late winter and matures in February-March. Photoperiods are lengthening throughout that seasonal interval, and might cue arousal. An endogenous, 'long-range' timer that cues arousal after an interval of rest is another possible mechanism

CKS1 inhibition depletes leukemic stem cells and protects healthy hematopoietic stem cells in acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive hematological disorder comprising a hierarchy of quiescent leukemic stem cells (LSCs) and proliferating blasts with limited self-renewal ability. AML has a dismal prognosis, with extremely low 2-year survival rates in the poorest cytogenetic risk patients, primarily due to the failure of intensive chemotherapy protocols to deplete LSCs and toxicity of therapy toward healthy hematopoietic cells. We studied the role of cyclin-dependent kinase regulatory subunit 1 (CKS1)-dependent protein degradation in primary human AML and healthy hematopoiesis xenograft models in vivo. Using a small-molecule inhibitor (CKS1i), we demonstrate a dual role for CKS1-dependent protein degradation in reducing patient-derived AML blasts in vivo and, importantly, depleting LSCs, whereas inhibition of CKS1 has the opposite effect on normal hematopoiesis, protecting normal hematopoietic stem cells from chemotherapeutic toxicity. Proteomic analysis of responses to CKS1i in our patient-derived xenograft mouse model demonstrate that inhibition of CKS1 in AML leads to hyper-activation of RAC1 and accumulation of lethal reactive oxygen species, whereas healthy hematopoietic cells enter quiescence in response to CKS1i, protecting hematopoietic stem cells. Together, these findings demonstrate that CKS1-dependent proteostasis is a key vulnerability in malignant stem cell biology.Peer reviewe

High-resolution CT phenotypes in pulmonary sarcoidosis: a multinational Delphi consensus study

One view of sarcoidosis is that the term covers many different diseases. However, no classification framework exists for the future exploration of pathogenetic pathways, genetic or trigger predilections, patterns of lung function impairment, or treatment separations, or for the development of diagnostic algorithms or relevant outcome measures. We aimed to establish agreement on high-resolution CT (HRCT) phenotypic separations in sarcoidosis to anchor future CT research through a multinational two-round Delphi consensus process. Delphi participants included members of the Fleischner Society and the World Association of Sarcoidosis and other Granulomatous Disorders, as well as members' nominees. 146 individuals (98 chest physicians, 48 thoracic radiologists) from 28 countries took part, 144 of whom completed both Delphi rounds. After rating of 35 Delphi statements on a five-point Likert scale, consensus was achieved for 22 (63%) statements. There was 97% agreement on the existence of distinct HRCT phenotypes, with seven HRCT phenotypes that were categorised by participants as non-fibrotic or likely to be fibrotic. The international consensus reached in this Delphi exercise justifies the formulation of a CT classification as a basis for the possible definition of separate diseases. Further refinement of phenotypes with rapidly achievable CT studies is now needed to underpin the development of a formal classification of sarcoidosis

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

The C-Band All Sky Survey

The C-Band All-Sky Survey (C-BASS) is a 1 GHz bandwidth survey of the radio sky in both intensity and polarization at a frequency of 5 GHz and with a resolution of 0.8. Northern and Southern sky coverage is provided by antennas located at the Owen’s Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) in California, and the MeerKAT support base in South Africa, respectively.The primary science goal of C-BASS is to provide a highly sensitive C-Band all sky intensity and polarization map to augment the WMAP/Planck surveys. Removal of foregound contamination will place a limit on the success of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments that attempt to detect the B-Mode polarization of the CMB. We will provide a HEALPix map (Nside=128) with an r.m.s. noise of 0.13 mK/pixel in Stokes Q and Stokes U, and a confusion limited r.m.s. noise of 0.8 mK/pixel in Stokes I. Removal of foregrounds at the higher frequency CMB surveys will be significantly improved by this lower frequency constraint.This thesis describes the development of the C-BASS gain-stabilized receiver capable of making sensitive measurements of both galactic total intensity and polarization. The receiver features a novel digital backend to provide spectral detail across the frequency band of interest. The analog signal conditioning uses a double sideband mixer to mix the RF frequencies to a DC–1000 MHz baseband for digitization. By changing the mixer frequency and/ or duplicating the signal conditioning and digital hardware, the RF frequency coverage can be modified for other projects.I also describe the process of converting a 7.6 m telecommunications dish to a high performance radio astronomy platform. The discussion includes dish surface measurements, optical design, and the development of an inexpensive telescope servo controller. The antenna conversion process and receiver design can be used to significantly reduce capital costs of future experiments, which is especially useful for short timescale experiments. The African VLBI (Nordling, 2012) is currently following a similar route to repurpose antennas across the African continent.</p