Conditional Sampling for Max-Stable Processes with a Mixed Moving Maxima Representation

This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using the Poisson point process structure of such processes. For explicit calculations we restrict ourselves to the one-dimensional case and use a finite number of shape functions satisfying some regularity conditions. For more general shape functions approximation techniques are presented. Our algorithm is applied to the Smith process and the Brown-Resnick process. Finally, we compare our computational results to other approaches. Here, the algorithm for Gaussian processes with transformed marginals turns out to be surprisingly competitive.Comment: 35 pages; version accepted for publication in Extremes. The final publication is available at http://link.springer.co

Exposure of mediterranean countries to ocean acidification

This study examines the potential effects of ocean acidification on countries and fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. The implications for seafood security and supply are evaluated by examining the sensitivity of the Mediterranean to ocean acidification at chemical, biological, and macro-economic levels. The limited information available on impacts of ocean acidification on harvested (industrial, recreational, and artisanal fishing) and cultured species (aquaculture) prevents any biological impact assessment. However, it appears that non-developed nations around the Mediterranean, particularly those for which fisheries are increasing, yet rely heavily on artisanal fleets, are most greatly exposed to socioeconomic consequences from ocean acidification. © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Predicting live birth, preterm and low birth weight infant after in-vitro fertilisation: a prospective study of 144018 treatment cycles

Background The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown. Methods and Findings We utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2–23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46–1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99–1.24); p-value for difference in estimate <0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes—preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. Conclusions Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF

Evidence for Paternal Leakage in Hybrid Periodical Cicadas (Hemiptera: Magicicada spp.)

Mitochondrial inheritance is generally assumed to be maternal. However, there is increasing evidence of exceptions to this rule, especially in hybrid crosses. In these cases, mitochondria are also inherited paternally, so “paternal leakage” of mitochondria occurs. It is important to understand these exceptions better, since they potentially complicate or invalidate studies that make use of mitochondrial markers. We surveyed F1 offspring of experimental hybrid crosses of the 17-year periodical cicadas Magicicada septendecim, M. septendecula, and M. cassini for the presence of paternal mitochondrial markers at various times during development (1-day eggs; 3-, 6-, 9-week eggs; 16-month old 1st and 2nd instar nymphs). We found evidence of paternal leakage in both reciprocal hybrid crosses in all of these samples. The relative difficulty of detecting paternal mtDNA in the youngest eggs and ease of detecting leakage in older eggs and in nymphs suggests that paternal mitochondria proliferate as the eggs develop. Our data support recent theoretical predictions that paternal leakage may be more common than previously estimated

Mild hypothermia delays the development of stone heart from untreated sustained ventricular fibrillation - a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>'Stone heart' resulting from ischemic contracture of the myocardium, precludes successful resuscitation from ventricular fibrillation (VF). We hypothesized that mild hypothermia might slow the progression to stone heart.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fourteen swine (27 ± 1 kg) were randomized to normothermia (group I; n = 6) or hypothermia groups (group II; n = 8). Mild hypothermia (34 ± 2°C) was induced with ice packs prior to VF induction. The LV and right ventricular (RV) cross-sectional areas were followed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance until the development of stone heart. A commercial 1.5T GE Signa NV-CV/i scanner was used. Complete anatomic coverage of the heart was acquired using a steady-state free precession (SSFP) pulse sequence gated at baseline prior to VF onset. Un-gated SSFP images were obtained serially after VF induction. The ventricular endocardium was manually traced and LV and RV volumes were calculated at each time point.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In group I, the LV was dilated compared to baseline at 5 minutes after VF and this remained for 20 minutes. Stone heart, arbitrarily defined as LV volume <1/3 of baseline at the onset of VF, occurred at 29 ± 3 minutes. In group II, there was less early dilation of the LV (p < 0.05) and the development of stone heart was delayed to 52 ± 4 minutes after onset of VF (P < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this closed-chest swine model of prolonged untreated VF, hypothermia reduced the early LV dilatation and importantly, delayed the onset of stone heart thereby extending a known, morphologic limit of resuscitability.</p

Photoluminescence efficiency of zincblende InGaN/GaN quantum wells

Growing green and amber emitting InGaN/GaN quantum wells in the zincblende, rather than the wurtzite, crystal phase has the potential to improve efficiency. However, optimization of the emission efficiency of these heterostructures is still required to compete with more conventional alternatives. Photoluminescence time decays were used to assess how the quantum well width and number of quantum wells affect the recombination rates, and temperature dependent photoluminescence was used to determine the factors affecting recombination efficiency. The radiative recombination lifetime was found to be approximately 600 ps and to increase weakly with well width, consistent with a change in the exciton binding energy. The relative efficiency at room temperature was found to increase by a factor of five when the number of wells was increased from one to five. Furthermore, the efficiency increased by factor 2.2 when the width was increased from 2.5 to 7.5 nm. These results indicate that thermionic emission is the most important process reducing efficiency at temperatures in excess of 100 K. Moreover, the weak dependence of the rate of radiative recombination on well width means that increasing well thickness is an effective way of suppressing thermionic emission and thereby increasing efficiency in zincblende InGaN/GaN quantum wells, in contrast to those grown in the wurtzite phase