Seeing Double at Neptune's South Pole

Keck near-infrared images of Neptune from UT 26 July 2007 show that the cloud feature typically observed within a few degrees of Neptune's south pole had split into a pair of bright spots. A careful determination of disk center places the cloud centers at -89.07 +/- 0 .06 and -87.84 +/- 0.06 degrees planetocentric latitude. If modeled as optically thick, perfectly reflecting layers, we find the pair of features to be constrained to the troposphere, at pressures greater than 0.4 bar. By UT 28 July 2007, images with comparable resolution reveal only a single feature near the south pole. The changing morphology of these circumpolar clouds suggests they may form in a region of strong convection surrounding a Neptunian south polar vortex.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures; accepted to Icaru

Cognitive consequences of clumsy automation on high workload, high consequence human performance

The growth of computational power has fueled attempts to automate more of the human role in complex problem solving domains, especially those where system faults have high consequences and where periods of high workload may saturate the performance capacity of human operators. Examples of these domains include flightdecks, space stations, air traffic control, nuclear power operation, ground satellite control rooms, and surgical operating rooms. Automation efforts may have unanticipated effects on human performance, particularly if they increase the workload at peak workload times or change the practitioners' strategies for coping with workload. Smooth and effective changes in automation requires detailed understanding of the congnitive tasks confronting the user: it has been called user centered automation. The introduction of a new computerized technology in a group of hospital operating rooms used for heart surgery was observed. The study revealed how automation, especially 'clumsy automation', effects practitioner work patterns and suggest that clumsy automation constrains users in specific and significant ways. Users tailor both the new system and their tasks in order to accommodate the needs of process and production. The study of this tailoring may prove a powerful tool for exposing previously hidden patterns of user data processing, integration, and decision making which may, in turn, be useful in the design of more effective human-machine systems

Rethinking False Spring Risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events - often called false springs - are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology, and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which is essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs

Social inequalities in early childhood competences, and the relative role of social and emotional versus cognitive skills in predicting adult outcomes

This study draws on the nationally representative British Birth Cohort Study (BCS70) to examine (1) the association between social background and early socio-emotional and cognitive competences at age 5 and (2) the relative and independent contributions of early socio-emotional and cognitive competences to educational and socio-economic attainment in adulthood. A multi-dimensional (multiple exposure, multiple outcome) approach is adopted in conceptualising social background, childhood competences and adult outcomes by age 42. Indicators of social background include parental education, social class, employment status, family income, as well as home ownership, enabling us to test which aspects of socio-economic risk uniquely influence the development of early competences. Indicators of childhood competences include directly assessed cognitive competences (i.e. verbal and visual motor skills), while measures of socio-emotional competences include hyperactivity, good conduct, emotional health and social skills, reported by the child’s mother at age 5. Adult outcomes include highest qualifications, social class and household income by age 42. The findings suggest that multiple indicators of social background are associated with both socio-emotional and cognitive competences, although the associations with socio-emotional competences are less strong than those with cognitive competences. We find significant long-term predictive effects of early cognitive skills on adult outcomes, but also independent effects of socio-emotional competences, in particular self-regulation, over and above the role of family background. The study supports calls for early interventions aiming to reduce family socio-economic risk exposure and supporting the development of cognitive skills and self-regulation (i.e. reducing hyperactivity and conduct problems)

Verifying proofs in constant depth

In this paper we initiate the study of proof systems where verification of proofs proceeds by NC circuits. We investigate the question which languages admit proof systems in this very restricted model. Formulated alternatively, we ask which languages can be enumerated by NC functions. Our results show that the answer to this problem is not determined by the complexity of the language. On the one hand, we construct NC proof systems for a variety of languages ranging from regular to NP-complete. On the other hand, we show by combinatorial methods that even easy regular languages such as Exact-OR do not admit NC proof systems. We also present a general construction of proof systems for regular languages with strongly connected NFA's

Retrieving Neptune's aerosol properties from Keck OSIRIS observations. I. Dark regions

We present and analyze three-dimensional data cubes of Neptune from the OSIRIS integral-field spectrograph on the 10-m Keck telescope, from July 2009. These data have a spatial resolution of 0.035"/pixel and spectral resolution of R~3800 in the H and K broad bands. We focus our analysis on regions of Neptune's atmosphere that are near-infrared dark- that is, free of discrete bright cloud features. We use a forward model coupled to a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to retrieve properties of Neptune's aerosol structure and methane profile above ~4 bar in these near-infrared dark regions. Using a set of high signal-to-noise spectra in a cloud-free band from 2-12N, we find that Neptune's cloud opacity is dominated by a compact, optically thick cloud layer with a base near 3 bar and composed of low albedo, forward scattering particles, with an assumed characteristic size of ~1$\mu$m. Above this cloud, we require a vertically extended haze of smaller (~0.1 $\mu$m) particles, which reaches from the upper troposphere (~0.6 bar) into the stratosphere. The particles in this haze are brighter and more isotropically scattering than those in the deep cloud. When we extend our analysis to 18 cloud-free locations from 20N to 87S, we observe that the optical depth in aerosols above 0.5 bar decreases by a factor of 2-3 or more at mid- and high-southern latitudes relative to low latitudes. We also consider Neptune's methane (CH$_4$) profile, and find that our retrievals indicate a strong preference for a low methane relative humidity at pressures where methane is expected to condense. Our preferred solution at most locations is for a methane relative humidity below 10% near the tropopause in addition to methane depletion down to 2.0-2.5 bar. We tentatively identify a trend of lower CH$_4$ columns above 2.5 bar at mid- and high-southern latitudes over low latitudes.Comment: Published in Icarus: 15 September 201

The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America

Directed paths on hierarchical lattices with random sign weights

We study sums of directed paths on a hierarchical lattice where each bond has either a positive or negative sign with a probability $p$. Such path sums $J$ have been used to model interference effects by hopping electrons in the strongly localized regime. The advantage of hierarchical lattices is that they include path crossings, ignored by mean field approaches, while still permitting analytical treatment. Here, we perform a scaling analysis of the controversial ``sign transition'' using Monte Carlo sampling, and conclude that the transition exists and is second order. Furthermore, we make use of exact moment recursion relations to find that the moments always determine, uniquely, the probability distribution $P(J)$. We also derive, exactly, the moment behavior as a function of $p$ in the thermodynamic limit. Extrapolations ($n\to 0$) to obtain for odd and even moments yield a new signal for the transition that coincides with Monte Carlo simulations. Analysis of high moments yield interesting ``solitonic'' structures that propagate as a function of $p$. Finally, we derive the exact probability distribution for path sums $J$ up to length L=64 for all sign probabilities.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figure

N-tree approximation for the largest Lyapunov exponent of a coupled-map lattice

The N-tree approximation scheme, introduced in the context of random directed polymers, is here applied to the computation of the maximum Lyapunov exponent in a coupled map lattice. We discuss both an exact implementation for small tree-depth $n$ and a numerical implementation for larger $n$s. We find that the phase-transition predicted by the mean field approach shifts towards larger values of the coupling parameter when the depth $n$ is increased. We conjecture that the transition eventually disappears.Comment: RevTeX, 15 pages,5 figure