How Much Is Purchasing Power Parity Worth?

Updating Bilson \u27s (1984) investment strategy using an out-of-sample forecast procedure, we find much smaller profits from a trading strategy based on purchasing power parity. Though the total profit is significant at a 5 percent level, it is substantially lower than what Bilson found. Our results suggest Bilson\u27s excess profits are due to the sample of data used and the in-sample nature of the tests. Hence, this paper demonstrates that the simple investment strategy leads to the same conclusion that econometric testing does; namely, that purchasing power parity is only marginally useful in forecasting exchange rates

An Examination of Value Line’s Long-term Projection

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution

Monte Carlo and Bootstrapping Carry Trade Simulations in Excel

In a currency carry trade, an investor borrows money in a low interest rate currency and invests in a high interest rate currency. The trade is profitable if the future exchange rate does not adjust to the interest rate differential. After downloading exchange rate data, a Monte Carlo simulation of a carry trade is performed in Excel based on a normal distribution and the data’s mean and standard deviation. A bootstrapping carry trade simulation exercise is also generated by randomly selecting observations from the historical data. In contrast to the Monte Carlo simulation, the bootstrapping exercise preserves the skewness within the historical data. A carry trade simulation can generate student interest and strengthen student understanding of Excel modeling, Investments, International Finance, and Statistics. The assignment can also be used to illustrate uncovered interest rate parity and forward rate bias

The Relationship Between the Value Effect and Industry Affiliation

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions

The Timeliness of Accounting Disclosures in International Security Markets

In this study, we examine financial reporting lags, the incidence of late filing, and the relationship between reporting lags, firm performance and the degree of capital market scrutiny. We use a large sample of firms spanning 22 countries over an eleven-year period. A focal point of our analysis is whether the incidence of late filing, and the relations between reporting days and other variables, differ systematically between common and code law countries. Relative to U.S. firms, we report that the time taken and allowed for filing is usually longer in other countries and that the statutory requirement is more frequently violated. Timely filing is found to be less frequent in code law countries. Poor firm performance and longer reporting lags are more strongly linked in common law countries. We also find that whereas greater capital market scrutiny and more timely filing are related, there is less support for a relationship between the level of debt financing and timely filing in code law countries

Maintaining a Flexible Payout Policy in a Mature Industry: The Case of Crown Cork and Seal in the Connelly Era

As related in these pages, the history of Crown Cork and Seal (hereafter known as “Crown”) provides us with a case of a company that stopped paying dividends but establish a disciplined share repurchase policy and did so for all the right reasons. Under family ownership in the 1950s, Crown lost market share and was on the brink of bankruptcy when its largest shareholder, John Connelly, was elected chairman of the board in 1957. Under John Connelly’s leadership, the firm restructured its operations and began a payout policy based solely on stock repurchases. During the Connelly era, the firm did not pay a penny of common dividends, which is remarkable for a mature firm in a slow growth industry. Using share repurchases instead, Crown managed the agency and information problems that beset public companies with outside shareholders. In what follows, we show how a flexible payout policy can result in superior returns to shareholders over three decades. When faced with declining prospects in its industry, Crown pursued a focused and disciplined growth strategy. Crown’s high degree of managerial ownership resulted in more focused investments than the diversification strategies pursued by Crown’s competitors. To fund its acquisitions, the firm used internally generated cash flow, avoided external financing, and maintained very low levels of leverage. Crown’s flexible financial policy allowed the firm to pursue value-increasing investments that represent the legacy of the Connelly era (and whose payoffs are depicted graphically in Figure 1)

How Large are the Benefits of Emerging Market Equities?

We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the benefits of emerging market equities by extending previous research in four fundamental ways. The contribution of this study is that it 1) evaluates a more complete sample; 2) examines performance measures that account for asymmetric return distributions; 3) separates emerging markets by region; and 4) considers the influence that the market environment has on the benefits of emerging market investments. Our results suggest that previous research has understated the benefits associated with investing in emerging markets. We find that broad emerging market indices have relatively low downside risk, which results in Sortino ratios that are approximately twice that offered by developed markets. Furthermore, we find that Latin American countries are particularly beneficial in hedging against adverse conditions in U.S. financial markets. Overall, our findings indicate that emerging markets allow investors to achieve lower risk, higher returns, and expanded risk/return possibilities; especially during periods when developed world investors need diversification the most

Diversification Benefits from Foreign Real Estate Investment

Previous research has questioned the stability of international equity diversification. This study examines whether foreign real estate exists in a more segmented market and whether foreign real estate provides any diversification benefit beyond that obtainable from foreign stocks. Using data encompassing the stock market crash of 1987, foreign real estate was found to have a lower correlation with U.S. stocks than foreign stocks. This lower correlation is shown to be stable through time as foreign real estate has a lower correlation in nearly the entire time period. Foreign real estate was also found to have a significant weight in efficient international portfolios

An Analysis of the Cross Section of Returns for EREITs Using a Varying-Risk Beta Model

A dual-beta asset pricing model is employed to examine the cross-section of realized equity real estate investment trust (EREIT) returns over bull and bear markets. No significant relationship is found between EREIT returns and a constant beta. However, beta explains cross-sectional returns when betas are allowed to vary across bull markets. This positive relationship exists for both January and non-January months. During bear-market months, no significant relationship is found between REIT betas and returns. But, during such months, size and book-to-market ratio are found to be negatively related to returns

The Relationship Between Size and Return for Foreign Real Estate Investments

In this study, we utilize a relatively new database to examine whether small foreign real estate firms have higher returns than large foreign real estate firms. We examine this issue from the perspective of a U.S. investor who forms portfolios of international real estate firms on the basis of U.S. dollar market value of equity. Using eleven years of foreign real estate data for more than 1200 observations in twenty countries, we find that large firms have higher returns and lower risk than small firms. These results hold when returns are denominated in either local currency or dollars. Further, the relationship between firm size and return is monotonic across portfolio groupings